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colafitte on 17 December 2018
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zorg1000 said:
Intrinsic said:

My own personal estimate fr the NS was originally 50M. Then after its first year on the market I took it up to 65M. The 3DS is at 73M now... lets round that up to 75M. 

I don't believe the NS will sell more than 75M. Plus or minus 5M. S worst case scenario 70M best case 80M. 

It doesn't have to fall behind the 3DS to sell a total of 75M. Especially when you consider that it took the 3DS 7+ yrs to get there. The NS can do it in just over 6yrs all the while tracking ahead of the 3DS. 

I won't be surprised though if nintendo pulls out something like a Switch+ around 2022/2023 and call that a revision but that have its wn games that cant run of the current switch. They have done this before.  

It does eventually have to fall behind 3DS to sell less than 75 million, you just agreed with me that year 4 will sell 12+ million putting LTD at ~67.5 million by March 2021. Do you realize how big of a drop it would need to have to miss 75 million?

These are the median numbers for the estimates I gave (estimates you just agreed with)

2.74m

15.05m

FY19-18.5m (LTD 36.5m)

FY20-17.5m (LTD 54.0m)

FY21-13.5m (LTD 67.5m)

How big of a drop are you expecting at that point?

FY22-6.0m (LTD 73.5m)

FY23-1.5m (LTD 75m)

That's a 55% drop followed by a 75% drop for FY 5 & 6 which I believe would be the most significant drops for any successful platform.

Not even Wii or GBA had nearly that bad of declines and Wii is known for having a harsh decline while GBA was replaced in its 4th fiscal year.

If you really believe in your meridian projections, they are not so different than mine, like i said earlier in this thread:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/dev2016/post.php?id=8938930

"end of 2017 13M, end of 2018 29M, end of 2019 46M, end of 2020 59M, end of 2021 69M, end of 2022 77M. After it probably will have another year selling around the same and by 2024 Nintendo will probably be launching the successor. So by then, and after 7 years on the market the Switch will be around 85M."

And in my case i was talking about sales, not shipments, so add around 2M each figure to get actual FY shipment predictions.

By FY22 we expect similar numbers then....You're very close to the pessimistic side zorg....

But i guess no one here paid attention at what i said then....

Last edited by colafitte - on 17 December 2018