DonFerrari said:
Miyamotoo said:
LT numbers will heavily depend from number of Switch revision, Nintendo support, life time of console and time until most likely Switch 2 don't arrives on market.
Just look how much revisions 3DS has and how much long Nintendo support 3DS, look how PS4 and XB1 received mid gen upgraded and how that effected on sales for them in later years on market.
People tend to forget couple of things about Switch:
-Switch is essentially handheld hardware and like that will have multiple different price point revisions that will effect on sales and llife span of platform (similar to 3DS just with stronger sales per years)
-Switch has hybrid concept and be used like real home console or like real handheld, so it selling to both home console and handheld lowers
-Switch is Nintendo unified platform, that means all Nintendo IPs (handheld and home console), all Nintendo focus and undivided support just for one platform, and that means much stronger support in any case (I dont talk only about 1st party game support, but also about 3rd party exclusive deals, planning, marketing..)
-Nintendo itself said they want Switch to have longer life span than usual 5-6 years on market (they clarly dont want to repeat Wii situation when they had couple of great years and where they lifted support and sales died too soon)
-Compared to just home console, Switch can sell like device per person (Wii couldnt that), Nintendo said they ultimate goal with Switch is to sell like device per person but also that current price point ($300) is still not there for something like that (they will need around $200 for such a sales).
-Switch is selling great despite still didnt had not single price cut or revision that always boost sales in any case
With all that on mind, Switch potential for for sales is huge, Switch can easily become best selling Nintendo platform after DS, and bare minimum that Switch will hit is 80m+ and in order to Switch hit just around 80m and not much more than that would need that some Nintendo plans go very wrong.
So I cant understand people that saying that their 80m projection is optimistic, or even less people that saying that Switch will hit similar to 3DS numbers, I mean Switch will be only after 2 years on market at almost half of that number (80m).
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I'll tag for future reference that Switch will be their second most successful platform. So they need to cross 119M to win over GameBoy.
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Oh, I forget about GB/GBC combined numbers, I was having on mind passing Wii numbers (101m).
Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:
It does eventually have to fall behind 3DS to sell less than 75 million, you just agreed with me that year 4 will sell 12+ million putting LTD at ~67.5 million by March 2021. Do you realize how big of a drop it would need to have to miss 75 million?
These are the median numbers for the estimates I gave (estimates you just agreed with)
2.74m
15.05m
FY19-18.5m (LTD 36.5m)
FY20-17.5m (LTD 54.0m)
FY21-13.5m (LTD 67.5m)
How big of a drop are you expecting at that point?
FY22-6.0m (LTD 73.5m)
FY23-1.5m (LTD 75m)
That's a 55% drop followed by a 75% drop for FY 5 & 6 which I believe would be the most significant drops for any successful platform.
Not even Wii or GBA had nearly that bad of declines and Wii is known for having a harsh decline while GBA was replaced in its 4th fiscal year.
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I did say plus or minus 5M. So my ceiling is actually 80M. But to keep thins interesting I am using the 3DS as my marker.
And saying I agree with your numbers doesn't mean I agree with everything literally. Like i would replace FY19 18.5M with 17M and FY 20 with 16M.
80M is my ceiling. What I am expecting is really around 75M by the time the next Switch is released.
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But you do realise that Switch only around 1st two years on market would be at around 50% of those numbers?
