November NPD 2018 Thread

[zorg1000]

Intrinsic said:

zorg1000 said:

The thing I don't understand is that you agree with those estimates I gave yet still think it will fall behind 3DS at some point, just exactly when will that be?

Those estimates I gave put it at 62-73 million, let's split it down the middle and say 67.5 million for convenience sake, that's a 15 million lead.

That's roughly 10 million away from where 3DS will end up at so you think it will go from 12+ million in the 4th full fiscal year to under 10 million in years 5 and beyond? A time period in which 3DS will sell ~25 million.

I'm sorry but the math just doesnt add up to me.

My own personal estimate fr the NS was originally 50M. Then after its first year on the market I took it up to 65M. The 3DS is at 73M now... lets round that up to 75M. 

I don't believe the NS will sell more than 75M. Plus or minus 5M. S worst case scenario 70M best case 80M. 

It doesn't have to fall behind the 3DS to sell a total of 75M. Especially when you consider that it took the 3DS 7+ yrs to get there. The NS can do it in just over 6yrs all the while tracking ahead of the 3DS. 

I won't be surprised though if nintendo pulls out something like a Switch+ around 2022/2023 and call that a revision but that have its wn games that cant run of the current switch. They have done this before.  

It does eventually have to fall behind 3DS to sell less than 75 million, you just agreed with me that year 4 will sell 12+ million putting LTD at ~67.5 million by March 2021. Do you realize how big of a drop it would need to have to miss 75 million?

These are the median numbers for the estimates I gave (estimates you just agreed with)

2.74m

15.05m

FY19-18.5m (LTD 36.5m)

FY20-17.5m (LTD 54.0m)

FY21-13.5m (LTD 67.5m)

How big of a drop are you expecting at that point?

FY22-6.0m (LTD 73.5m)

FY23-1.5m (LTD 75m)

That's a 55% drop followed by a 75% drop for FY 5 & 6 which I believe would be the most significant drops for any successful platform.

Not even Wii or GBA had nearly that bad of declines and Wii is known for having a harsh decline while GBA was replaced in its 4th fiscal year.