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Forums - Sales Discussion - November NPD 2018 Thread

LGBTDBZBBQ said:
chakkra said:

Call me optimistic but I think that if they drop the price low enough ($250-350 for PS4/pro and $230-400 for X1S/X) both machines will be able to match this year's numbers.

Benji already said in era thread, a price drop isn't going to stop imminent YOY decrease for both consoles for the next year and Matt(npd) already said the thing about doom and gloom for hardware with an exception to Nintendo Switch. 

Well we don't really need Benji or Matt to tell us that do we :) its pretty obvious that its going to be a difficult year for hardware next year, because we'll be 6 years in... even with price drops they can only do so much at this point. They'll both be down YOY.



Making an indie game : Dead of Day!

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MasonADC said:

I am not expecting the Switch to keep up with the DS/Wii in sales, that's just unrealistic. But expecting 20 million or even 18/19 for what is looking like an amazing software/hardware year isn't out of the realm of possibilities. Pokemon honestly didn't have that much more of a bigger impact on the 3ds then it did on the ds. DS had more reasons for it to reach 150 million. Not to mention that all Nintendo successors has had lower sales than the original. Animal crossing brings in a new demographic of gamers as well. PS, there is no way the Switch is selling less than the 3ds, so that 75M max definitely needs to be upped 

As I have said I don't see 18M to 19M as unattainable. I even expect it to d around that next year. But some are saying 20M to 25M. Thats wii or DS level numbers and I just don't think its gonna happen. Especially not for the reasons being given.

Miyamotoo said:

You have some problem with reading or understanding point that someone is trying to make, you keep replying to people things they didnt wrote.

I am right, I never said that Nintendo is wining US markets, I said that for Nintendo US market is strongest market while Europe is strongest market for Sony, and thats a fact. Nintendo is selling most if its consoles on US market while Sony selling most of its console on Europe market simple as that, MS also selling also most of consoles to US (but Xbox brand is generally much weaker on any other market).

For your information, despite Japan prefers handheld mostly, Nintendo handhelds also sold most in US not in Japan.

 

When people talking about hole year they talking about shipped numbers because those are only official numbers we getting from Nintendo, this year Switch will maybe even hit their target of 20m shipped units, 18-19m is like minimum they will ship. Next year more than 20m is very likely. Even Wii had only year with 26m shipped units, not sold units, no one said that Switch can sell 25m in 2019.

I see what the issue is here. When you say strongest market you mean where it sells the most not where it dominates and wins. 

I read what you said in response to what was being said as talking about "strongest markets"h with regards to winning those markets not just selling very well in those markets compared to other markets. 

As for your shipped number thing... if thats really what yu guys are ding then you all are messing it all up. That 20M nintendo gave isnt for this whole year  (jan - dec) of 2018. Its for the 2018-2019 Fiscal year (Apr 2018 - Mar 2019).

Having said that..... I dont believe you on this notion that when people have been talking about switch selling 20M or 25M next year they were referring to shipped numbers as opposed to sales. I think its usally pretty clear when people are talking abut shipped numbers and sales. You cant be talking about shipped numbers and saying 2018 or 2019 If thats what you are doing then be sure to add (FY). So if yu say 2018 FY we all will know what you mean is shipments and covering a period of apr 2018 to mar 2019.



Miyamotoo said:
Nate4Drake said:

I really don't think so.  PS4 line up will be amazing next year, with next Goty The Last of Us Part II, Days Gone, Death Stranding, Ghost of Tsushima,

and all the best 3rd Party games which cannot even run on the Switch.   Furthermore, Sony is still holding back a worldwide price-cut,

and we all know how much PS4 would sell at 199$/€ !

 2019 will be another amazing year for PS4, which is proving to have an almost unparalleled success, only second to PS2.    

From those games only Days Gone is currently confirmed for 2019. release, games like The Last of Us Part II,  Death Stranding, Ghost of Tsushima could easily have cross gen launch in same time on PS4 and PS5, and that would have effect on PS4 sales in any case.

3rd party will strong for PS4 like always.

Yes we know, this second time Sony was selling PS4 at price point of $200, so people already have plenty occasions buying PS4 for less than $300.

2019. will be good year for PS4, but most likely will be YOY down in any case compared to this year.

 

 

Nate4Drake said:

I understand your dreams, but I think PS4 will win everywhere apart from Japan, which is the smallest and least important market nowdays.

 And Europe, well, Sony Land for ever, without any competition.

He is right thought, US was always strongest market for Nintendo same like Europe was for Sony, Switch has good chances beating PS4 in US at end, for now they are selling very similar in US for same time period.

It depends from Nintendo. If they will keep releasing upgraded version of Switch for the next 6 years, it might happen; but you know it would means nothing as PS5 will be out from Nov 2020 most probably, it will be the new workhorse of Sony and PS4 will start little by little fading.  A new gen is starting after the absolute dominion of ps4, so what will happen in NA in 2023-2025 on the clouded and forgotten stage PS4 vs Switch means absolutely nothing. PS5 will be probably ruling again, a new underpowered Nintendo console will be out, trying to compete with Sony and Microsoft which are in the market with their new consoles since 2-3 years alredy.

 This generation is over, PS4 has dominated; we will see with next gen what will happen.



”Every great dream begins with a dreamer. Always remember, you have within you the strength, the patience, and the passion to reach for the stars to change the world.”

Harriet Tubman.

Intrinsic said:
MasonADC said:

I am not expecting the Switch to keep up with the DS/Wii in sales, that's just unrealistic. But expecting 20 million or even 18/19 for what is looking like an amazing software/hardware year isn't out of the realm of possibilities. Pokemon honestly didn't have that much more of a bigger impact on the 3ds then it did on the ds. DS had more reasons for it to reach 150 million. Not to mention that all Nintendo successors has had lower sales than the original. Animal crossing brings in a new demographic of gamers as well. PS, there is no way the Switch is selling less than the 3ds, so that 75M max definitely needs to be upped 

As I have said I don't see 18M to 19M as unattainable. I even expect it to d around that next year. But some are saying 20M to 25M. Thats wii or DS level numbers and I just don't think its gonna happen. Especially not for the reasons being given.

Miyamotoo said:

You have some problem with reading or understanding point that someone is trying to make, you keep replying to people things they didnt wrote.

I am right, I never said that Nintendo is wining US markets, I said that for Nintendo US market is strongest market while Europe is strongest market for Sony, and thats a fact. Nintendo is selling most if its consoles on US market while Sony selling most of its console on Europe market simple as that, MS also selling also most of consoles to US (but Xbox brand is generally much weaker on any other market).

For your information, despite Japan prefers handheld mostly, Nintendo handhelds also sold most in US not in Japan.

 

When people talking about hole year they talking about shipped numbers because those are only official numbers we getting from Nintendo, this year Switch will maybe even hit their target of 20m shipped units, 18-19m is like minimum they will ship. Next year more than 20m is very likely. Even Wii had only year with 26m shipped units, not sold units, no one said that Switch can sell 25m in 2019.

I see what the issue is here. When you say strongest market you mean where it sells the most not where it dominates and wins. 

I read what you said in response to what was being said as talking about "strongest markets"h with regards to winning those markets not just selling very well in those markets compared to other markets. 

 

As for your shipped number thing... if thats really what yu guys are ding then you all are messing it all up. That 20M nintendo gave isnt for this whole year  (jan - dec) of 2018. Its for the 2018-2019 Fiscal year (Apr 2018 - Mar 2019).

Having said that..... I dont believe you on this notion that when people have been talking about switch selling 20M or 25M next year they were referring to shipped numbers as opposed to sales. I think its usally pretty clear when people are talking abut shipped numbers and sales. You cant be talking about shipped numbers and saying 2018 or 2019 If thats what you are doing then be sure to add (FY). So if yu say 2018 FY we all will know what you mean is shipments and covering a period of apr 2018 to mar 2019.

Strongest market = market where they selling most consoles

 

Yeah, 20m for FY not for calendar year. When people say 20m sold they mean on that forecestad Nintendo 20m for FY, and in some manner they they saying that Switch sell more than 20m units next year. Ship means sold to reatilers, while sold means sold to consumers, plenty of people dont pay too much atention on those things and they talking about them like are similar things, for plenty of people ship numbers are same like sold numbers.



Nate4Drake said:

It depends from Nintendo. If they will keep releasing upgraded version of Switch for the next 6 years, it might happen; but you know it would means nothing as PS5 will be out from Nov 2020 most probably, it will be the new workhorse of Sony and PS4 will start little by little fading.  A new gen is starting after the absolute dominion of ps4, so what will happen in NA in 2023-2025 on the clouded and forgotten stage PS4 vs Switch means absolutely nothing. PS5 will be probably ruling again, a new underpowered Nintendo console will be out, trying to compete with Sony and Microsoft which are in the market with their new consoles since 2-3 years alredy.

 This generation is over, PS4 has dominated; we will see with next gen what will happen.

And this is something I feel a lot aren't considering when it comes to the switch. 

 

Is the switch going to go to 80M lifetime sales on the back of Nintendo first party alone? Cause that is what it will need to do. Because once the PS5/XB2 comes along those ports that the NS are getting now won't be there anymore. The power divide will just be too much. 

 Do people really think the arrival of the PS5 and XB2 will not affect the switch in anyway? Do people really think that nintendo first party alone is enough to carry a platform to 80M+ sales? Outside the Wii when has nintendo ever managed that feat? The secnd we start talking abut sales and exclude the call od duties next fortnite next overwatchs` next doom' next fifa and next GTA then nintendo is left solely with its first party. In a world where it cant even sell as a handheld device alone.



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Intrinsic said:
Nate4Drake said:

It depends from Nintendo. If they will keep releasing upgraded version of Switch for the next 6 years, it might happen; but you know it would means nothing as PS5 will be out from Nov 2020 most probably, it will be the new workhorse of Sony and PS4 will start little by little fading.  A new gen is starting after the absolute dominion of ps4, so what will happen in NA in 2023-2025 on the clouded and forgotten stage PS4 vs Switch means absolutely nothing. PS5 will be probably ruling again, a new underpowered Nintendo console will be out, trying to compete with Sony and Microsoft which are in the market with their new consoles since 2-3 years alredy.

 This generation is over, PS4 has dominated; we will see with next gen what will happen.

And this is something I feel a lot aren't considering when it comes to the switch. 

 

Is the switch going to go to 80M lifetime sales on the back of Nintendo first party alone? Cause that is what it will need to do. Because once the PS5/XB2 comes along those ports that the NS are getting now won't be there anymore. The power divide will just be too much. 

 Do people really think the arrival of the PS5 and XB2 will not affect the switch in anyway? Do people really think that nintendo first party alone is enough to carry a platform to 80M+ sales? Outside the Wii when has nintendo ever managed that feat? The secnd we start talking abut sales and exclude the call od duties next fortnite next overwatchs` next doom' next fifa and next GTA then nintendo is left solely with its first party. In a world where it cant even sell as a handheld device alone.

Nintendoom again? Each generation has appropriate rules. The new generation has begun and the Switch already has more than 20 million ahead of Sony and Microsoft. We need know better about the new Sony and Microsoft consoles.



Intrinsic said:
Nate4Drake said:

It depends from Nintendo. If they will keep releasing upgraded version of Switch for the next 6 years, it might happen; but you know it would means nothing as PS5 will be out from Nov 2020 most probably, it will be the new workhorse of Sony and PS4 will start little by little fading.  A new gen is starting after the absolute dominion of ps4, so what will happen in NA in 2023-2025 on the clouded and forgotten stage PS4 vs Switch means absolutely nothing. PS5 will be probably ruling again, a new underpowered Nintendo console will be out, trying to compete with Sony and Microsoft which are in the market with their new consoles since 2-3 years alredy.

 This generation is over, PS4 has dominated; we will see with next gen what will happen.

And this is something I feel a lot aren't considering when it comes to the switch. 

 

Is the switch going to go to 80M lifetime sales on the back of Nintendo first party alone? Cause that is what it will need to do. Because once the PS5/XB2 comes along those ports that the NS are getting now won't be there anymore. The power divide will just be too much. 

 Do people really think the arrival of the PS5 and XB2 will not affect the switch in anyway? Do people really think that nintendo first party alone is enough to carry a platform to 80M+ sales? Outside the Wii when has nintendo ever managed that feat? The secnd we start talking abut sales and exclude the call od duties next fortnite next overwatchs` next doom' next fifa and next GTA then nintendo is left solely with its first party. In a world where it cant even sell as a handheld device alone.

Right now it is positioned as a home console that can be taken on the go since it costs a similar amount and can handle a decent amount of PS4/XBO games. But what about 3 years from now?

Will it still be marketed that way or will they adapt? Will it have a couple price cuts and revisions and start to be positioned more as a handheld that can hook up to a TV?

Will a hypothetical $199 Switch Mini really be affected by $399-499 home consoles? Were GB/GBA/DS/3DS affected negatively by the far stronger and more expensive home consoles from Sega/Sony/Microsoft?

You question whether or not Switch can reach 80 million but seem to ignore that 3/4 of their handhelds accomplished that while the 4th will only end up a few million short of that mark.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Intrinsic said:
Nate4Drake said:

It depends from Nintendo. If they will keep releasing upgraded version of Switch for the next 6 years, it might happen; but you know it would means nothing as PS5 will be out from Nov 2020 most probably, it will be the new workhorse of Sony and PS4 will start little by little fading.  A new gen is starting after the absolute dominion of ps4, so what will happen in NA in 2023-2025 on the clouded and forgotten stage PS4 vs Switch means absolutely nothing. PS5 will be probably ruling again, a new underpowered Nintendo console will be out, trying to compete with Sony and Microsoft which are in the market with their new consoles since 2-3 years alredy.

 This generation is over, PS4 has dominated; we will see with next gen what will happen.

And this is something I feel a lot aren't considering when it comes to the switch. 

 

Is the switch going to go to 80M lifetime sales on the back of Nintendo first party alone? Cause that is what it will need to do. Because once the PS5/XB2 comes along those ports that the NS are getting now won't be there anymore. The power divide will just be too much. 

 Do people really think the arrival of the PS5 and XB2 will not affect the switch in anyway? Do people really think that nintendo first party alone is enough to carry a platform to 80M+ sales? Outside the Wii when has nintendo ever managed that feat? The secnd we start talking abut sales and exclude the call od duties next fortnite next overwatchs` next doom' next fifa and next GTA then nintendo is left solely with its first party. In a world where it cant even sell as a handheld device alone.

Yes, the first party games alone can carry this to 80 million. You think ports of Skyrim and Fifa is whats selling the switch? You're mistaken.



Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.

Really surprising XOne numbers. I didn't expect it to be that close to the Switch! Good numbers all around!



Intrinsic said:

And this is something I feel a lot aren't considering when it comes to the switch. 

 

Is the switch going to go to 80M lifetime sales on the back of Nintendo first party alone? Cause that is what it will need to do. Because once the PS5/XB2 comes along those ports that the NS are getting now won't be there anymore. The power divide will just be too much. 

 Do people really think the arrival of the PS5 and XB2 will not affect the switch in anyway? Do people really think that nintendo first party alone is enough to carry a platform to 80M+ sales? Outside the Wii when has nintendo ever managed that feat? The secnd we start talking abut sales and exclude the call od duties next fortnite next overwatchs` next doom' next fifa and next GTA then nintendo is left solely with its first party. In a world where it cant even sell as a handheld device alone.

> Breath of the Wild becomes best-selling Zelda
> Odyssey becomes the best-selling 3D Mario
> Smash Ultimate becomes the best-selling Smash
> "Clearly, it's the third-party ports that are driving Switch's success."