Willing to make a bet?

Easily. Keep in mind they have 3 big announcements due out in 2019 in Crackdown 3, Ori 2 and Gears 5 plus games like Battletoads and afew other smaller titles that will surely interests none Xbox owners. Next year is going to be big for Xbox and if games like Halo Infinite becomes crossplay than i can see it doing well over 50m.

Halo Infinite will definitely be a crossgen/crossplay title.

I'm among the people that believe MS is gonna support X1 and the next Xbox together. Things like Xbox Live and Gamepass justify continued X1 support, also the console architecture is likely to stay much the same.

I want the next Xbox to be priced at $499 so its a fairly significant specs upgrade, while the X1X is the low price option.

Double Post

Agreed. X is unmatched this gen so the jump is needed to justify next generation. X being the entry level console is almost certain. A discless streaming xbox is not hard to imagine either though.

No way MS does that. They don't have the pull to force devs to continue to develop on the outdated HW for next gen. Even if they forced the issue by saying they must do it or they can't publish on the XB2, many devs would just refuse.

As for the NES, I doubt XBO goes much past 55M, let alone 60M.

I agree that it definitely looks certain to hit 50M. At least on VGC, since we have no official numbers.

The XB2 would sell less because it will be redundant out of the gate. All of its games may be payable on PC, meaning that it wouldn't have a unique personality, like the PS5 and Switch. And if this gen is anything to go on, MS doesn't mind being more expensive out of the gate, which also will not help them. Even if they have a slight power advantage over PS5. 

You're making the assumption that 3rd parties won't want to support base X1 or X1X when we don't know what the plans are quite yet. For example, maybe the 9th gen Xbox is essentially just a big specs upgrade and can share software easily with the X1. Kinda like a Windows game, tweaking graphics settings for the hardware. That's certainly what MS should aim for.

Also, for a few years developers tend to support previous gen hardware. Many of the smaller and visually simplistic games should work fine on base X1 specs for the entire gen 9th gen. I mean look at much of stuff on the PlayStation and Xbox store, much of those games could have ran on 7th gen specs.

Xbox games being playable on PC doesn't make them less unique, it just means you have more ways to play them. Would Horizon, God of War and Spider-Man be less great if they were on PC? No, more people would just play them. Some of the best selling PS4 games aren't even exclusive.

I think MS having the most powerful console on market is an edge worth having, especially if the X1X functions as a viable low cost option for 9th gen games. However, its worth noting the X1X's power advantage over the PS4 Pro is more than "slight" between the GPU, CPU, and RAM advantages. All that combined means it could handle 9th gen games much better than the PS4 Pro.

They will finish this generation with 55-60 million by the time the console is discontinued.

Xbox one x is probably going th be around long after the next gen system. It will be very easy for dev to port a version to X1X.

Xbone will end at 55 million roughly

Yes, the market is much bigger today than it was in the 1990s and there was no "Super Nintendo Pro" or something released to extend the SNES' life cycle the way the XBox One has the X.