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Forums - Sales Discussion - Black Friday NPD 2018

DonFerrari on 28 November 2018
Miyamotoo said:
quickrick said:

I see no reason for nintendo to lie about the 8.2 million number in a very detailed article via business wire, switch will end  up 800-950k for november book it.

Hardly they would lied, but it wouldn't be first time their PR is not most accurate.

What is very possible is that with "more than 8.2m" numbers gave us numbers until October with this "5 day period sales", so without other November numbers. And that would actually make sense, because it expected that Switch in that period sold around 800-900k (because thats more than Wii best week and perfectly fit with those "more than 8.2m" sold units).

 

Also, this one of latests Benji posts:

-I think estimating anywhere from 1.1 million - 1.5 million for Switch in November is realistic. I know that's a big range but given the PR (outside the weird LTD figure) it seem highly unlikely it's either below or above that figure

 -Considering we have Switch doing a confirmed over 800k on BF week alone, yeah. Switch and PS4 are going to be very close come NPD in November. And likely unless Sony have something big planned for December Switch may end up the best selling hardware for the Year

So he have internal data and the best he could give is an estimate with such a large range?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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quickrick on 28 November 2018
DonFerrari said:
Miyamotoo said:

Hardly they would lied, but it wouldn't be first time their PR is not most accurate.

What is very possible is that with "more than 8.2m" numbers gave us numbers until October with this "5 day period sales", so without other November numbers. And that would actually make sense, because it expected that Switch in that period sold around 800-900k (because thats more than Wii best week and perfectly fit with those "more than 8.2m" sold units).

 

Also, this one of latests Benji posts:

-I think estimating anywhere from 1.1 million - 1.5 million for Switch in November is realistic. I know that's a big range but given the PR (outside the weird LTD figure) it seem highly unlikely it's either below or above that figure

 -Considering we have Switch doing a confirmed over 800k on BF week alone, yeah. Switch and PS4 are going to be very close come NPD in November. And likely unless Sony have something big planned for December Switch may end up the best selling hardware for the Year

So he have internal data and the best he could give is an estimate with such a large range?

You think that's bad? last year his data said switch has a chance to win, although he said it's unlikely but still he said it had a realistic chance after being out sold by nearly  a million for november.

that chances of NIntendo 8.2 million LTD figure for   US sales not being accurate are slim to none, people want to ignore cause it's not great news for nintendo.



Intrinsic on 28 November 2018
Miyamotoo said:
quickrick said:

I see no reason for nintendo to lie about the 8.2 million number in a very detailed article via business wire, switch will end  up 800-950k for november book it.

Hardly they would lied, but it wouldn't be first time their PR is not most accurate.

What is very possible is that with "more than 8.2m" numbers gave us numbers until October with this "5 day period sales", so without other November numbers. And that would actually make sense, because it expected that Switch in that period sold around 800-900k (because thats more than Wii best week and perfectly fit with those "more than 8.2m" sold units).

 

Also, this one of latests Benji posts:

-I think estimating anywhere from 1.1 million - 1.5 million for Switch in November is realistic. I know that's a big range but given the PR (outside the weird LTD figure) it seem highly unlikely it's either below or above that figure

 -Considering we have Switch doing a confirmed over 800k on BF week alone, yeah. Switch and PS4 are going to be very close come NPD in November. And likely unless Sony have something big planned for December Switch may end up the best selling hardware for the Year

I see you are cherry picking information now.

Again...... The SWITCH was never compared even by nintendo to the BEST WEEK of the WII. It was compared t the best BF to CM 5 day window.

And it was also said to have had the BEST WEEK for the SWITCH since its launch not across all nintendo platforms. 

Pls, read in between the lines.

Mind you my prediction for Switch sales for November was around 1.3M. I am just saying your interpretation of the information given is wrong.



Acevil on 28 November 2018
quickrick said:
Miyamotoo said:

Hardly they would lied, but it wouldn't be first time their PR is not most accurate.

What is very possible is that with "more than 8.2m" numbers gave us numbers until October with this "5 day period sales", so without other November numbers. And that would actually make sense, because it expected that Switch in that period sold around 800-900k (because thats more than Wii best week and perfectly fit with those "more than 8.2m" sold units).

 

Also, this one of latests Benji posts:

-I think estimating anywhere from 1.1 million - 1.5 million for Switch in November is realistic. I know that's a big range but given the PR (outside the weird LTD figure) it seem highly unlikely it's either below or above that figure

 -Considering we have Switch doing a confirmed over 800k on BF week alone, yeah. Switch and PS4 are going to be very close come NPD in November. And likely unless Sony have something big planned for December Switch may end up the best selling hardware for the Year

LTD on US sales from nintendo  hasn't been wrong in over a decade last years article  gave us accurate NPD figures before they came out.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180104005222/en/Nintendo-Switch-Fastest-Selling-Home-Video-Game-System 

I'm looking forward to NPD which will reflect these numbers posted by nintendo. don't really care for benji, after this hopefully everyone see's that he's not legit.

From what is being reported on Era, Nintendo PR statement at Business Wire has been wrong once before in April 2017. So either way NPD thread will be interesting, either verifying information.

If Nintendo numbers end up being drastically higher than 800,000-950,000. I'm just going to say the last 6 days is where it sold the difference for laughs. Like lets say it sells 1.3 million, that 400,000 was from 6 days. Obviously that is the only conclusion one could come up with!



 

Intrinsic on 28 November 2018
quickrick said:
DonFerrari said:

So he have internal data and the best he could give is an estimate with such a large range?

You think that's bad? last year his data said switch has a chance to win, although he said it's unlikely but still he said it had a realistic chance after being out sold by nearly  a million for november.

that chances of NIntendo 8.2 million LTD figure for   US sales not being accurate are slim to none, people want to ignore cause it's not great news for nintendo.

Which is ridiculous considering the number comes from nintendo themselves.

I will say though, that number is probably only accurate till the end of cyber monday so about a week or so worth of sales are still not accounted for.



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Acevil on 28 November 2018
Intrinsic said:
quickrick said:

You think that's bad? last year his data said switch has a chance to win, although he said it's unlikely but still he said it had a realistic chance after being out sold by nearly  a million for november.

that chances of NIntendo 8.2 million LTD figure for   US sales not being accurate are slim to none, people want to ignore cause it's not great news for nintendo.

Which is ridiculous considering the number comes from nintendo themselves.

I will say though, that number is probably only accurate till the end of cyber monday so about a week or so worth of sales are still not accounted for.

Exactly, I agree. That is the only logical conclusion! (I kind of want it to be insanely high number now, so I can run this joke to the ground). 



 

Intrinsic on 28 November 2018
Acevil said:
Intrinsic said:

Which is ridiculous considering the number comes from nintendo themselves.

I will say though, that number is probably only accurate till the end of cyber monday so about a week or so worth of sales are still not accounted for.

Exactly, I agree. That is the only logical conclusion! (I kind of want it to be insanely high number now, so I can run this joke to the ground). 

HAHA!! And that point we will all just blame nintendo for misleading us.

But considering that number is accurate up till cyber monday, where does it put nintendo sales at for november so far?

I need to know how far off I am from winning my 1.3M prediction for November.

Last edited by Intrinsic - on 28 November 2018

quickrick on 28 November 2018
Acevil said:
quickrick said:

LTD on US sales from nintendo  hasn't been wrong in over a decade last years article  gave us accurate NPD figures before they came out.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180104005222/en/Nintendo-Switch-Fastest-Selling-Home-Video-Game-System 

I'm looking forward to NPD which will reflect these numbers posted by nintendo. don't really care for benji, after this hopefully everyone see's that he's not legit.

From what is being reported on Era, Nintendo PR statement at Business Wire has been wrong once before in April 2017. So either way NPD thread will be interesting, either verifying information.

If Nintendo numbers end up being drastically higher than 800,000-950,000. I'm just going to say the last 6 days is where it sold the difference for laughs. Like lets say it sells 1.3 million, that 400,000 was from 6 days. Obviously that is the only conclusion one could come up with!

yea i saw the over at era, but the comparison is highly flawed, nintendo gave a rough estimate of mario kart attach rate, and people decided to come up with the hardware  number for april off that info. this this totally different with nintendo giving clear LTD numbers.



Acevil on 28 November 2018
Intrinsic said:
Acevil said:

Exactly, I agree. That is the only logical conclusion! (I kind of want it to be insanely high number now, so I can run this joke to the ground). 

HAHA!! And that point we will all just blame nintendo for misleading us.

But considering that number is accurate up till cyber monday, where does it put nintendo sales at for november so far?

We won't know for sure till NPD numbers. I actually wonder what the day of release is. 



 

colafitte on 28 November 2018
Intrinsic said:
Acevil said:

Exactly, I agree. That is the only logical conclusion! (I kind of want it to be insanely high number now, so I can run this joke to the ground). 

HAHA!! And that point we will all just blame nintendo for misleading us.

But considering that number is accurate up till cyber monday, where does it put nintendo sales at for november so far?

I need to know how far off I am from winning my 13M prediction for November.

November included?, sold not shipped?? Switch ended October around how much? 8'5M sold since 1 Jan? If Switch sells around 1-1'5M jn USA and 0'5M in Japan, i guess the rest of the world should be around 1'0M-1'5M more..., so maybe 3M or 3'5M for November for a total of 11'5M or 12'0M, i really don't know, i'm completely guessing and rounding hard the numbers.