thats one thing i been wrong on  and i changed my prediction like a year ago to flat. since then i been mostly right on my predictions and 3 for 3 on my bets.

I mean, I don't think that can be argued at all. It's down YTD from last year where it was supply constrained for nearly that entire period.  Switch is losing momentum since it had such a long period with very little in terms of big game sellers apart from its evergreen titles. Switch had a ton of momentum last year and it has lost quite a bit. Of course, it could easily ramp back up the momentum with a huge holiday season but that doesn't mean that momentum wasn't lost for the first 10 months this calendar year.

Yeah, one little weaker month compared to same month last year is loosing momentum? This numbers prove you were wrong, and Q3 (holiday season) compared last year can be only better.

How much is on shelves doesn't change anything, we talking here about very clear numbers, you cant spin around shipped numbers in any case.

Wrong, its up YTD compared to last year:

-January 2017. -September 2017: 7.63m

-January 2018. - September 2018: 7.99m

If you want to compared only FY that makes much more sense because last year Switch did not had January and February sales while had launch in March:

-April 2017. -September 2017: 4.89m

-April 2018. -September 2018: 5.07m

When we here talking about momentum we talking about sales, you cant lose momentum in any case if you have similar or in this case better sales compared to last year.

it doesn't have better sales then last year on npd its just shipped slightly more cause of supply issues last year.

NPD is not hole world.