honesty think switch may never pass x1.
It will come down to longevity and legs, but right now the Switch is comparing favorably to the XBO:
The Switch sold 11.6% more units in 2017 than the XBO did in 2014, and for the Q1-Q3 period this year has sold 14.7% more units than the XBO did in the same period in 2015. And let's keep in mind that A) the Switch has yet to get a price cut or hardware revision, B) Smash and Gen VII Pokemon still aren't out yet, and C) 2015 was the XBO's best year by a slim margin, thanks to various stimulative factors that haven't come into play yet for the Switch. The Switch can easily continue to outpace the XBO for at least the next couple of years. The XBO's main advantage is that it has maintained steady sales for five years straight, something Nintendo systems rarely manage to do. I think the Switch will outpace the XBO at least out to 2020. By the end of this year, the XBO will be sitting at around 24-25M. I think it will end at around 32-33M, maybe less if the Xbox 4 comes out in 2020. The Switch could match that depending on how strong it is from this December on through 2019 and 2020, but I think it'll be close.
I think when ps5 and xbox 2 come out switch will be slow down considerably.
The release of new systems from one brand has absolutely zero effect on sales of a console from another brand. It has never happened before in the history of the console market. The only new system that will have a negative impact on Switch sales will be the Switch's successor.
PS4 - 421k
NSW - 259k
XB1 - 176k
3DS - 81k
Well, no point in updating my charts as posted in the thread. It might nudge the weekly average charts by a pixel or two and do nothing to the others. Those original estimates were pretty damn close.