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Forums - Sales - Is Nintendo Switch really a success?

DélioPT said:
curl-6 said:

Exactly, Switch will fail without super-massive AAA games such as these, that's why it's selling worse than the Wii U, since the Wii U at least had COD.

I don't think i mentioned failure of any kind.

What i said still stands: it hasn't gotten those big titles, despite the huge success of the console and the fact that in terms of age demographics and userbase, it's very similar to XB1 and PS4.
Not even announcements are being made.

Kinda makes you think how sustainable this success will be in the long run, doesn't it?
What will happen the next time there's no selling concept, no return to greatness for Zelda and Mario to sell the next HW or fend off the incoming PS5 and XB2? Wouldn't it be better if Switch already had that kind of library and be seen as a real alternative to Sony and MS?

Not having those BIG games might not seem much now, but when the times comes, it surely will make a difference! 

Satire aside, taking on MS and Sony directly simply is not an option for Nintendo. That would be like vultures trying to compete with lions for the apex predator role on the savanna. They don't have the means to do so, their only viable path to success is to occupy a different niche. When they distinguish themselves from the competition, as with the DS, Wii, and Switch, that's when they thrive.

This idea that Nintendo can be a third juggernaut in the battle of the traditional consoles is a pipe dream that people need to let go.



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nemo37 said:

However, I feel the market itself, particularly in the West, views the Switch as a portable console 

Huh? Your comment was very well thought-out, but I have to admit i am a bit confused by this statement. Doesn't particularly imply that something is mostly in relation to or applying to one specific set of regions rather than another set? That would mean that the Switch isn't seen as much as a portable in the East as it is in the West, which I think you can agree is fundamentally wrong. If anything, I'd expect the uninformed to say the opposite (not that you are uninformed), although data has pretty much confirmed that the Switch has a healthy relationship with handheld users worldwide.



DélioPT said:
Miyamotoo said:

 

You again having hard time with logic..Wii also was huge succes and from all those games received only CoD, so buy your point Wii also wasnt succes because didnt recived those games at all, or because Switch still didnt recived those games yet.

Demographic of Switch and XB1/PS4 isn't same, 43% of Switch user base are 25-34 years people while for instance 18. years old or less represent only 20%. That's quite different compared to PS4/XB1 user demographic.

"Kinda makes you think how sustainable this success will be in the long run, doesn't it"!?  Not at all, how Switch will be more and more appealing device how is getting more releases and divers games, price point getting down and getting revisions. For instance how price point going down, kid user demographic will significantly be changed, same like for people that will buy Switch like secondary device.

You realy dont get Nintendo at all, they act and making different strategies compared to Sony/MS on purpose, they know they have best chanches for succes if they dont compete with them head to head thats they trying difrent things. You dont get that Switch is already alternative to PS4/XB1, PS4 and XB1 are very similar but Switch is console that actually quite different and offer direct experienced to them, that why plenty of PS4/XB1 owners bought it like secondary console. Offcourse it would be better that Switch has all 3rd party games, but they couldn't do Switch like hybrid console for $300 and to have for instance similar tech/power like XB1/PS4, in other words Switch will sell much better than that would Nintendo clone of PS4/XB1.

Those games would make some difference, but they are not key for success for Nintendo hardware like they are for MS/Sony consoles, Wii, DS, 3DS and now Switch are clear example of that. Switch is already success and it will be much bigger success (Switch will hardly sell less than 80m and easiily can do 100m+) despite those games.

"Wii also was huge success (…)"
Yes, it was. Not because it competed directly with PS3 and Xb360, but because they went after a completely different market.

I don't know what the age demographic is on a age by age basis. Still, i said similar, not equal. And the 70% of users for the US market prove that.

"Switch will be more and more appealing device how is getting more releases and divers games, price point getting down and getting revisions."
It's a possibility. But we are not talking about diversity for the sake of diversity, we are talking about meaningful diversity - you know, the CODs, GTAs, etc.etc. That's what most Switch users buy on their main systems.

Systems like PS2, SNES and other aren't remembered by the sheer quantity of titles. It's the exclusives, the big 3rd party titles that always come up first when talking about systems like those.

"You dont get that Switch is already alternative to PS4/XB1"
That's strange… i'd swear Switch had no impact on PS4 and XB1 and that only 30% of US Switch owners didn't have a PS4 or XB1.
We must have different visions on what "alternative" means.
Or maybe we don't: "that's why plenty of PS4/XB1 owners bought it like secondary console."  

I'm not asking for a clone. What i've always said is that 3rd party games are the reason consoles succeed… in a normal situation.
Nintendo knows this and if they decide to make a system that can't handle them, then they know the risks.
So far, Switch has enough reasons to correct that flaw, but what made Switch a success (all of this things) happen once in a blue moon and won't last forever.
As i said to you before: they have one a battle, but not the war.

Switch is a device like no other and it's also living off of whatever userbase PS4 and XB1 create.
I wouldn't be so quick to say this or that about Switch's future when it's real test still hasn't come: compete with new platforms.

zorg1000 said:

The logic you are using is pretty backwards.

The fact that a high percentage of Switch owners also own a PS4/XBO shows that PS4/XBO owners are buying a Switch for experiences not found on the systems they already own so missing out on the games you are speaking of is not going to affect Switch in any meaningful way.

 

But Switch is also is aiming different market also in same time, because hybrid nature it aims handheld market also, thats huge difference compared to PS4/XB1.

Thats 70% of Switch owners in US that also have PS4/XB1, not 70% owners of all PS4/XB1 owners in US.

Are you serious!? Switch owners buying Switch on first place to play Nintendo games and exclusives, and those games on first place are reeason why so many PS4/XB1 owners buying Switch, only after that coming multiplatform games.

Plenty of things changed from SNES and PS2 on market, Nintendo changed big time after GameCube.

You do realise that only proves my point!? Fact is that Switch dont effect on PS4/XB1 sales, and PS4/XB1 sales dont effect on Switch sales proves that Switch alternative to PS4/XB1 and that can coexist on market despite point that they are also selling great, fact that 70% Switch owners in US also has PS4/XB1 also proves that.

"What i've always said is that 3rd party games are the reason consoles succeed… in a normal situation". But thats a point, Nintendo has much higher chances by releasing console that's not normal or typical, also last few generations 3rd party games are not reason for Nintendo succes, but you fail to see that. Switch is success, period, it only remains how big success will be, it has chances passing Wii numbers and becoming second best selling Nintendo hardware after DS.

But that a point, Switch will keep selling despite PS5/XB2 because even then it will be different like its different currently compared to PS4/XB1 and because of that plenty of PS4/XB1 owners also buying Switch.


Like I wrote you in other thread and like others point in this thread, your points or logic dont make sense at all, so I again dont see point continue with this and I will not reply to you any more.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 01 October 2018

RolStoppable said:
DélioPT said:

(...)

It's easy to say that gamers are buying Switch because of what it offers that the others don't (i agree, btw). But in the end, it's been pretty much because there's no real alternative to Switch.

That's an especially funny statement. You recognize that Switch occupies a unique position and holds a monopoly in the portable market, and I am pretty sure you also recognize that that isn't going to change, yet you are still concerned about new PS and Xbox consoles posing a threat for Switch.

Why shouldn't I be concerned?
Is Switch sold as portable, perceived as such and getting games as if it is a portable? No. Even if it has the monopoly of that market it doesn't necessarily mean it will sell and have a shelf life as other portables.
Does Nintendo have another device to fall back to when Switch faces real competition from PS5 ad XB2? No.

They would be better off for the future - whatever that future entails - if it had the type of 3rd party games that make Sony and MS consoles, primary consoles.

zorg1000 said:
DélioPT said:

 

How does the data show that it's not a primary console? That's a fact pulled right out of nowhere.

By the time PS5/XB4 release, Switch could potentially be in the $150-200 price range with a couple revisions and dozens of highly rated exclusives, $400-500 powerful consoles will not be direct competition, they will coexist just like Switch currently does with PS4/XBO.

Did you see PS4 and Sony take a blow because of Switch? I didn't.
Had Switch affected sales from pS4 and XB1 and that would be a real possibility.

I get the 200$ range. I highly doubt the 150$ anytime soon.
But they will be direct competition! MS and Sony users are buying Switch in droves because there's no real alternative for them to decide. Not to forget that only less than a third of Switch users didn't have a PS4 or XB1. And this is after coming out with a new concept, a return to form for Mario and Zelda, MK8 and Splatoon in just 10 months.

There's just no way, given the above, that PS5 and XB2 won't pose a serious threat to Switch and it's not price that will soften the blow.
Sony managed to sell 80+ million between a 300 and 400 price tag.



DélioPT said:
RolStoppable said:

That's an especially funny statement. You recognize that Switch occupies a unique position and holds a monopoly in the portable market, and I am pretty sure you also recognize that that isn't going to change, yet you are still concerned about new PS and Xbox consoles posing a threat for Switch.

Why shouldn't I be concerned?
Is Switch sold as portable, perceived as such and getting games as if it is a portable? No. Even if it has the monopoly of that market it doesn't necessarily mean it will sell and have a shelf life as other portables.
Does Nintendo have another device to fall back to when Switch faces real competition from PS5 ad XB2? No.

They would be better off for the future - whatever that future entails - if it had the type of 3rd party games that make Sony and MS consoles, primary consoles.

Assuming momentum is maintained well, wouldn't the Switch be nearing 65 million by late 2020( My estimate of when the nest consoles will drop)? I think the Switch is being perceived  as a handheld, as it is more in line with Nintendo's handheld. I also think it is getting the games as if it was a portable( I would never imagine something like Octopath on a traditional console). 



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curl-6 said:
DélioPT said:

 

Satire aside, taking on MS and Sony directly simply is not an option for Nintendo. That would be like vultures trying to compete with lions for the apex predator role on the savanna. They don't have the means to do so, their only viable path to success is to occupy a different niche. When they distinguish themselves from the competition, as with the DS, Wii, and Switch, that's when they thrive.

This idea that Nintendo can be a third juggernaut in the battle of the traditional consoles is a pipe dream that people need to let go.

Given the current state, no, i don't think Nintendo can take Sony and MS head-on.

But they have the means to actually try, they just decided they don't want to.
And i'm not speaking about coming out with a 400$ console full of bells and whistles. I'm talking about the most important aspect of change: games!

Apart from the Wii franchises, how many franchises has Nintendo made that directly appeal to the Sony and MS consumer? Splatoon? Where's the Uncharteds, Halos, Destiny's, etc, etc.?
If Nintendo can't present those games as exclusives + Nintendo franchises it will be really hard for them actually change anything structurally.

To be honest, there's two moves that have gone in the way of said change: marketing to young aduls and above and making serious efforts to bring online titles like Fortnite, Arena of Valor, etc.
To be honest, again, i don't think they have been given enough credit for those changes, specially the latter.

To me, Nintendo needs to take some more serious steps for anything to change in the long term. It's not really a pipedream, it's a work in progress.

Miyamotoo said:
DélioPT said:

 

But Switch is also is aiming different market also in same time, because hybrid nature it aims handheld market also, thats huge difference compared to PS4/XB1.

Thats 70% of Switch owners in US that also have PS4/XB1, not 70% owners of all PS4/XB1 owners in US.

Are you serious!? Switch owners buying Switch on first place to play Nintendo games and exclusives, and those games on first place are reeason why so many PS4/XB1 owners buying Switch, only after that coming multiplatform games.

Plenty of things changed from SNES and PS2 on market, Nintendo changed big time after GameCube.

You do realise that only proves my point!? Fact is that Switch dont effect on PS4/XB1 sales, and PS4/XB1 sales dont effect on Switch sales proves that Switch alternative to PS4/XB1 and that can coexist on market despite point that they are also selling great, fact that 70% Switch owners in US also has PS4/XB1 also proves that.

"What i've always said is that 3rd party games are the reason consoles succeed… in a normal situation". But thats a point, Nintendo has much higher chances by releasing console that's not normal or typical, also last few generations 3rd party games are not reason for Nintendo succes, but you fail to see that. Switch is success, period, it only remains how big success will be, it has chances passing Wii numbers and becoming second best selling Nintendo hardware after DS.

But that a point, Switch will keep selling despite PS5/XB2 because even then it will be different like its different currently compared to PS4/XB1 and because of that plenty of PS4/XB1 owners also buying Switch.


Like I wrote you in other thread and like others point in this thread, your points or logic dont make sense at all, so I again dont see point continue with this and I will not reply to you any more.

I never denied that difference (portability). But what i don't do is look at that and say "that's all there is to it" or "it will have the same appeal forever".

"Thats 70% of Switch owners in US that also have PS4/XB1, not 70% owners of all PS4/XB1 owners in US."
I really don't understand what you are trying to go with this…
The data is clear: 70% of Switch users in the US own a PS4/XB1.

"Are you serious!? Switch owners buying Switch on first place to play Nintendo games and exclusives, and those games on first place are reeason why so many PS4/XB1 owners buying Switch, only after that coming multiplatform games."
No wonder multiplats come second: first, there aren't that many that are actually relevant; second, they can play them on their systems.

"Fact is that Switch dont effect on PS4/XB1 sales, and PS4/XB1 sales dont effect on Switch sales proves that Switch alternative to PS4/XB1 and that can coexist on market despite point that they are also selling great, fact that 70% Switch owners in US also has PS4/XB1 also proves that."

Why should sales of XB1 and PS4 affect Switch? Is Switch seen as a primary device? No.

And you keep ignoring that the Switch exclusives and concept aren't the only reasons Switch is selling well.
There's no competition to Switch; 
By marketing Switch to the Xb and PS consumer, you make Switch an attractive product. Problem is, they failed to have those same consumers choose Switch instead of PS4 or XB1. In fact, only 30% did that.
When Switch released there were already tens and tens of millions users ready for something new.

How you keep ignoring this or treating it as irrelevant is beyond me. 

"Nintendo has much higher chances by releasing console that's not normal or typical, also last few generations 3rd party games are not reason for Nintendo succes, but you fail to see that."
WII was a success on a different market. Not happening again (Wii U pretty much showed that early on);
Switch had a new, unrepeatable approach, Splatoon 2, MK8, Mario and Zelda games that were hailed as return their glory days. And despite all that it's like, to PS4 and XB1 sales, it didn't even exist.

Read the context and you'll see that SO FAR, there's not a big change for Nintendo. All Nintendo wins have been a moment in time.
On the other hand, Sony has the same strategy since 95 and they are still winning.
Sony does bad one time and sells 80+ million consoles; Nintendo does bad (again) and does 15 million consoles.
See the difference?

For Sony is just another day at the office. The norm for Nintendo is not Switch, nor Wii.

Although there are ways to succeed without 3rd parties, it is yet to be shown that that same success can be sustained for more than one generation.



RolStoppable said:
DélioPT said:

 

Switch is sold as hybrid, perceived as such and getting games as if it is a portable. If you haven't paid attention, Switch is inheriting all the support the 3DS and Vita got without a problem. You answered your own question wrong. But most importantly, Switch is already tracking ahead of the 3DS and will grow the gap significantly in the next few months.

Are you insinuating that PS4 and XB1 aren't real competition? They are cheaper than Switch and have bigger game libraries to fall back on. Do you really believe that more expensive consoles with smaller game libraries will make Switch unattractive all of a sudden?

Your whole line of thinking is very similar to the concerns that were raised during the Wii era. Nintendo ended up listening and made the Wii U, and the market sent a crystal clear message that AAA third party games aren't a selling point for a Nintendo console. None of those third party games managed to sell more than one million copies. Wii U wasn't the only console where Nintendo placed importance on AAA third party content though; there was also the GameCube. A decade before the Wii U Nintendo had already received the same message from the market. Nintendo's worst selling consoles are the ones that pursued the games you argue they should pursue.

Do you have any sales data that supports any of the points you are making?

I looked at the 2019 release calendar for Switch and all i have seen were home console games - at least the ones that mattered.
The only meaningful handheld titles were Pokémon and Yokai watch.

I also look at the best sellers (top 30) for Switch and i mainly see home console type games.
If it's getting support (games that only existed or came from handhelds) from japanese developers it's not really making  big difference. But home console games are.

PS4 and XB1 are competition, but nowhere near the competition presented by new platforms.
When you release your console to a market where more than 80 million systems, combined, have been sold, havin spent more than 3 years on the market and you are directly aiming at those consumers, it's hard not to do well - also considering how Nintendo entered the market.

That's why i said the real test will come when Sony and MS consumers will have to choose between Switch and the new consoles.

No i don't believe Switch will become unnatractive all of a sudden. But i can't overlook the fact that Switch isn't really stealing consumers from the competition or hurting their sales.

"Nintendo's worst selling consoles are the ones that pursued the games you argue they should pursue."
Aren't you ignonring why they failed?
It wasn't just GC that failed. XB failed aswell.

A year after the mighty PS2 came out, with the best 3rd party games and Nintendo presents a purple console that is being sold on the games that aren't a priority to the mass market. Couple that with Nintendo's poor image on the market for late teens and adults and the fact that there attempt of reaching that audience was a copy of Sony's strategy without the actual games.
And you are surprised that Nintendo failed?

Wii U was already dead on arrival. The lack of support and appeal was already evident.
Remember that first commercial? They said they were going after the core gamers, but their message and strategy went the other way.

When you ask for sales data, to what are you referring, exactly?




DélioPT said:
RolStoppable said:

Switch is sold as hybrid, perceived as such and getting games as if it is a portable. If you haven't paid attention, Switch is inheriting all the support the 3DS and Vita got without a problem. You answered your own question wrong. But most importantly, Switch is already tracking ahead of the 3DS and will grow the gap significantly in the next few months.

Are you insinuating that PS4 and XB1 aren't real competition? They are cheaper than Switch and have bigger game libraries to fall back on. Do you really believe that more expensive consoles with smaller game libraries will make Switch unattractive all of a sudden?

Your whole line of thinking is very similar to the concerns that were raised during the Wii era. Nintendo ended up listening and made the Wii U, and the market sent a crystal clear message that AAA third party games aren't a selling point for a Nintendo console. None of those third party games managed to sell more than one million copies. Wii U wasn't the only console where Nintendo placed importance on AAA third party content though; there was also the GameCube. A decade before the Wii U Nintendo had already received the same message from the market. Nintendo's worst selling consoles are the ones that pursued the games you argue they should pursue.

Do you have any sales data that supports any of the points you are making?

I looked at the 2019 release calendar for Switch and all i have seen were home console games - at least the ones that mattered.
The only meaningful handheld titles were Pokémon and Yokai watch.

I also look at the best sellers (top 30) for Switch and i mainly see home console type games.
If it's getting support (games that only existed or came from handhelds) from japanese developers it's not really making  big difference. But home console games are.

PS4 and XB1 are competition, but nowhere near the competition presented by new platforms.
When you release your console to a market where more than 80 million systems, combined, have been sold, havin spent more than 3 years on the market and you are directly aiming at those consumers, it's hard not to do well - also considering how Nintendo entered the market.

That's why i said the real test will come when Sony and MS consumers will have to choose between Switch and the new consoles.

No i don't believe Switch will become unnatractive all of a sudden. But i can't overlook the fact that Switch isn't really stealing consumers from the competition or hurting their sales.

"Nintendo's worst selling consoles are the ones that pursued the games you argue they should pursue."
Aren't you ignonring why they failed?
It wasn't just GC that failed. XB failed aswell.

A year after the mighty PS2 came out, with the best 3rd party games and Nintendo presents a purple console that is being sold on the games that aren't a priority to the mass market. Couple that with Nintendo's poor image on the market for late teens and adults and the fact that there attempt of reaching that audience was a copy of Sony's strategy without the actual games.
And you are surprised that Nintendo failed?

Wii U was already dead on arrival. The lack of support and appeal was already evident.
Remember that first commercial? They said they were going after the core gamers, but their message and strategy went the other way.

When you ask for sales data, to what are you referring, exactly?


Meaningful handheld titles for 2019 also include Animal crossing, Fire Emblem, and Luigi Mansion!



I think its a success so far. Hopefully it will keep on being a success.



DélioPT said:
 
zorg1000 said:

How does the data show that it's not a primary console? That's a fact pulled right out of nowhere.

By the time PS5/XB4 release, Switch could potentially be in the $150-200 price range with a couple revisions and dozens of highly rated exclusives, $400-500 powerful consoles will not be direct competition, they will coexist just like Switch currently does with PS4/XBO.

Did you see PS4 and Sony take a blow because of Switch? I didn't.
Had Switch affected sales from pS4 and XB1 and that would be a real possibility.

I get the 200$ range. I highly doubt the 150$ anytime soon.
But they will be direct competition! MS and Sony users are buying Switch in droves because there's no real alternative for them to decide. Not to forget that only less than a third of Switch users didn't have a PS4 or XB1. And this is after coming out with a new concept, a return to form for Mario and Zelda, MK8 and Splatoon in just 10 months.

There's just no way, given the above, that PS5 and XB2 won't pose a serious threat to Switch and it's not price that will soften the blow.
Sony managed to sell 80+ million between a 300 and 400 price tag.

I have no idea how to respond to this, it's literally just a bunch of nonsense that in no way supports what you are saying.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.