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Forums - Sales Discussion - Is Nintendo Switch really a success?

MasonADC said:
DélioPT said:

 


Meaningful handheld titles for 2019 also include Animal crossing, Fire Emblem, and Luigi Mansion!

All those were born in home consoles.

Although Animal crossing is clearly found it's home on handhelds, we can't say for sure that the same won't happen on Switch.

Luigi's Mansion 2 sold really well and Fire Emblem had a sales spike on 3DS, but we haven't gotten home console versions to make the claim that they are mainly handheld titles.

RolStoppable said:
DélioPT said:

 

The three biggest sellers Nintendo has announced for 2019 are Pokémon, Animal Crossing and Luigi's Mansion, all of which hit it big on the 3DS. I am convinced the reason why you see so many home console type games is because you want to see it that way. In reality, there's significant overlap between home console and handheld software, so many IPs can be counted as both; however, you choose to count them towards home consoles exclusively, so you create the basis that then leads you to the wrong conclusion.

You are committing a major contradiction in the following part:

PS4 and XB1 are competition, but nowhere near the competition presented by new platforms.
When you release your console to a market where more than 80 million systems, combined, have been sold, havin spent more than 3 years on the market and you are directly aiming at those consumers, it's hard not to do well - also considering how Nintendo entered the market.

You have argued many times that Switch isn't aimed at PS4 and XB1 owners because the game libraries are so different, therefore Nintendo needs to pursue the third party games that are only on PS4 and XB1. But in the above quote you argue that Switch was directly aimed at PS4 and XB1 owners.

You explain this contradiction by committing the fallacy that the console market is a zero sum game. It's not a zero sum game though, therefore there's no problem if Switch doesn't cut into other companies' console sales. What's happening is that Nintendo provides a unique value proposition with Switch which first allows it to sell well in a market with established consoles and afterwards works as a shield against newly introduced consoles that follow the same model as the PS4 and XB1. You concede that the PS5 and next Xbox are unlikely to make Switch unattractive, so the only problem you really have is that you are basing everything on the wrong premise that the console market is a zero sum game.

When I ask for sales data, I mean sales data that supports your position, namely that Nintendo is better off when they pursue AAA third party support. Of course I know that such data does not exist, so you can save yourself the time looking for it. Besides, I am now sure that the root cause for your concerns is the belief that the console market is a zero sum game; that's what you are basing everything on. If this single thing gets rectified, you'll pack up your house of cards because you will have realized that your argumentation doesn't make sense due to its fundament being an outright error.

We still haven't seen how the revamped Fire Emblem does on consoles and only now LM has a sequel on home consoles.
AC is pretty much a handheld title.

But i'm not counting them as exclusively home console titles.

Zelda and Mario also exist on 3DS, but the actual games differ completely from home consoles to handhelds.
Look at the top 30 and you'll see that despite the overlap, Switch's library is clearly favouring home console type of games.

"You have argued many times that Switch isn't aimed at PS4 and XB1 owners because the game libraries are so different"
I think you are mistaking me for Miyamotoo.
I've always said that Switch is aimed at those consumers.

If that's what you understood, then you misunderstood me.
I don't deny that one of the reasons for Switch's success is the exclusives (Mario, Zelda, MK8 and Splatoon, primarly).
I have also said that said games aren't the priority for the mass market. Which they aren't. 'Cause if they were, Nintendo's home consoles would have faired way better.

My call for better 3rd party support is based on the fact that it's what selling PS consoles since ever. And no manufacturer has been able to dethrone them at their game.

"It's not a zero sum game though, therefore there's no problem if Switch doesn't cut into other companies' console sales"
Actually it is.
In any market people have only a certain amount of money and time at their disposal. So, choices have to be made.
There are times where that is more apparent then others, but that is how, in general, markets work.

The fact that Nintendo isn't stealing customers is actually really relevant.
It means  that in 2017, despite all the hype and all the games, Nintendo could not sway consumers to think of Switch first and then, the others, after it.
So far, in the US, only 30% of consumers made that kind of choice. And given all the Switch had to offer, you should expect more.

To me, when you have a console that goes after the same people as your competition, and in the end, it's as if it wasn't there, then you have a problem.
And because of that it's not clear or obvious that Switch is shielded against PS5 and XB2. It would be shielded if sales demonstrated that people were opting more for Switch than PS4 and XB1.

Again, Switch is not succeeding against new released consoles. And that is what is helping it succeed, but that also means that it's market is not renewing itself at a desirable/healthy rate. 
Do you really believe that if Switch was released in 2013, things would be the same as they are now? I don't.



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zorg1000 said:
DélioPT said:

 

I have no idea how to respond to this, it's literally just a bunch of nonsense that in no way supports what you are saying.

"How does the data show that it's not a primary console? That's a fact pulled right out of nowhere.
By the time PS5/XB4 release, Switch could potentially be in the $150-200 price range with a couple revisions and dozens of highly rated exclusives, $400-500 powerful consoles will not be direct competition, they will coexist just like Switch currently does with PS4/XBO.
"

If only 30% of US Switch buyers don't have a pS4/XB1 console; if sales for those systems are still the same or better, taking consideration that Nintendo sold, what, 15million in the first year, it's only natural to conclude that people don't see Switch as a priority and therefore, aren't stopping to buy a PS4/XB1 to get a Switch instead.

I doubt you'll see a console priced at 500$ anytime soon.
Even if Switch is at 200$ with dozens of exclusives (assuming they are all meaningful exclusives) why should that stop Switch from being hurt by new consoles, when at 300$, new concept and a bunch of system sellers weren't enough to have more people opt for a Switch instead of another system?

Consumers already showed that 400$ for a console is not a problem. They'll gladly pay it again if PS5 is a strong proposition as PS4 was.

What i'm saying over and over is this: despite all the efforts with Switch, Nintendo couldn't make people choose a Switch instead of a PS4 or XB1 and that's why neither consoles sales went down despite the massive sales of Switch.
Is that a good sign? No it's not. There should have been a bigger impact.



DélioPT said:
MasonADC said:

Meaningful handheld titles for 2019 also include Animal crossing, Fire Emblem, and Luigi Mansion!

All those were born in home consoles.

Although Animal crossing is clearly found it's home on handhelds, we can't say for sure that the same won't happen on Switch.

Luigi's Mansion 2 sold really well and Fire Emblem had a sales spike on 3DS, but we haven't gotten home console versions to make the claim that they are mainly handheld titles.

We still haven't seen how the revamped Fire Emblem does on consoles and only now LM has a sequel on home consoles.
AC is pretty much a handheld title.

Lol acting like Luigi's Mansion and FE don't have results from the home console market.



DélioPT said:
MasonADC said:

Meaningful handheld titles for 2019 also include Animal crossing, Fire Emblem, and Luigi Mansion!

All those were born in home consoles.

Although Animal crossing is clearly found it's home on handhelds, we can't say for sure that the same won't happen on Switch.

Luigi's Mansion 2 sold really well and Fire Emblem had a sales spike on 3DS, but we haven't gotten home console versions to make the claim that they are mainly handheld titles.

Either way, the series I mentioned all were most popular on handhelds. What does it take to be considered mainly handheld title?



Ultimately, if you want to be cynical, then the future of the Switch will be interesting to say the least. The PS5 and Xbox 2 (or whatever it will be called eventually) are potentially not too far away and that could impact momentum of the Switch. However, so far, we don't know much about these consoles except that they are being in development as we speak so its kinda of futile at this point. I don't know how much of a graphical leap could the PS5 and Xbox 2 go for at a convincing price, but we'll just have to see. I mean, 4K already looks great (even on YouTube since I don't have a Pro or a One X) so I cannot imagine how more graphically powerful can you get. Especially since some of the most popular games on PC aren't necessarily graphical standouts and people keep mentioning how powerful PC graphics are and what not.

As for Switch, so far, we know that it's passed the 20 million mark and has potential to do really well as the holidays roll around. In 2019, the Switch has a pretty good lineup as of now:
- Fire Emblem: Three Houses
- Daemon x Machina (made by some of the developers who worked on Armored Core)
- Animal Crossing 2019
- Pokemon Gen 8
- Town (a JRPG made by Game Freak)
- Yoshi's Crafted World
- Ninjala
- Travis Strikes Again: No More Heroes

I would include Metroid Prime 4 and Bayonetta 3, but we haven't heard much about these two games since they were initially announced. Regardless, that's a pretty good lineup for 2019. You just had Zelda, Mario, Kirby, Splatoon, ARMS, Mario + Rabbids, Xenoblade, Octopath Traveler, and Mario Tennis released with Smash Bros., Mario Party, and Pokemon Let's Go on the way for the rest of 2018. Yes, Pokemon Let's Go isn't necessarily the core RPG that hardcore fans are hoping for, but it has potential to include fans outside of the hardcore to get into the mainline series (and maybe help get the upcoming mainline games to sell 20+ million for the first time since Gen II). Then you got Smash Ultimate, which will aim to provide a crossover of a lifetime that even Marvel vs. Capcom Infinite could not manage. Plus, the Switch has been able to build a solid reputation, outside of online, which in of itself hasn't really bite Nintendo in the a$# at the moment. It's library is already miles better than Wii U by the time the console hit it's 2nd birthday.

http://www.nintendolife.com/news/2018/10/nintendo_switch_online_prepaid_cards_selling_extremely_well_says_major_japanese_retailer

Take that for what you will.

Anyways, there are questions on how long Nintendo can keep it up and how the next gen consoles could impact the Switch. Nevertheless, Nintendo is in a much better place as a hardware and software developer right now. Sure, there are things to improve, but we'll just have to see how things develop over time as we're not even near the 2nd birthday of the Switch's life.



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DélioPT said:
zorg1000 said:

I have no idea how to respond to this, it's literally just a bunch of nonsense that in no way supports what you are saying.

"How does the data show that it's not a primary console? That's a fact pulled right out of nowhere.
By the time PS5/XB4 release, Switch could potentially be in the $150-200 price range with a couple revisions and dozens of highly rated exclusives, $400-500 powerful consoles will not be direct competition, they will coexist just like Switch currently does with PS4/XBO.
"

If only 30% of US Switch buyers don't have a pS4/XB1 console; if sales for those systems are still the same or better, taking consideration that Nintendo sold, what, 15million in the first year, it's only natural to conclude that people don't see Switch as a priority and therefore, aren't stopping to buy a PS4/XB1 to get a Switch instead.

I doubt you'll see a console priced at 500$ anytime soon.
Even if Switch is at 200$ with dozens of exclusives (assuming they are all meaningful exclusives) why should that stop Switch from being hurt by new consoles, when at 300$, new concept and a bunch of system sellers weren't enough to have more people opt for a Switch instead of another system?

Consumers already showed that 400$ for a console is not a problem. They'll gladly pay it again if PS5 is a strong proposition as PS4 was.

What i'm saying over and over is this: despite all the efforts with Switch, Nintendo couldn't make people choose a Switch instead of a PS4 or XB1 and that's why neither consoles sales went down despite the massive sales of Switch.
Is that a good sign? No it's not. There should have been a bigger impact.

Your problem is that you constantly draw false conclusions to support your stance.

Sure, Switch didnt cause PS4/XBO sales to drop but who cares? I could turn it around and say PS4 in 2017 wasnt a primary console because despite having it's best year it couldn't stop Switch from having one of the best launch years in history. That statement would be equally silly because it draws a false conclusion with nothing to back it up.

The people who buy a $400+ console at launch are typically not the same people who buy a sub-$200 device that's ~4 years old.

I know $400 wont be an issue for PS5, it will sell great at that price, that however does not mean Switch cannot also do very well at $199 around the same time.

Just like Genesis did not stop NES from selling in 1989/1990 or Saturn/PS1 stop SNES in 1995/1996 or PS2 stop PS1 in 2000/2001 or PS3/360/Wii stop PS2 in 2006/2007 or PS4/XBO stop 3DS in 2014/2015, or Switch stop PS4/XBO in 2017/2018, PS5/XB4 will not stop Switch in 2020/2021.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

I have not picked up the Switch largely because the games just aren't that great. Breath of the Wild feels like Skyrim. Xenoblade Chronicles 2 and Octopath Traveler are good but not worth $63 (plus Torna?). If Nintendo games were priced like PSP games and depreciated in value with time the way PSP games did I would be more comfortable making a purchase. Also Switch has no achievement system. Sticking with my PS4 here. I will pick up Hollow Knight on PS4 for $15.

Last edited by HouseEorl - on 01 October 2018

HouseEorl said:

I have not picked up the Switch largely because the games just aren't that great. Breath of the Wild feels like Skyrim. Xenoblade Chronicles 2 and Octopath Traveler are good but not worth $63 (plus Torna?). If Nintendo games were priced like PSP games and depreciated in value with time the way PSP games did I would be more comfortable making a purchase. Also Switch has no achievement system. Sticking with my PS4 here. I will pick up Hollow Knight on PS4 for $15.

Games on Switch have far higher production values than what came on systems like PSP and 3DS, I certainly do not see a case for Nintendo pricing them like PSP titles. On top of that, the market seems to have no problem paying full price for these games, as evidenced by the sales of the Switch's evergreen titles. Hence, there are no signals from the marketplace that would indicate to Nintendo that they ought to drop the price. The reality is that the market is currently okay with the system's price (something I was skeptical about since launch), it is okay with the quality of the games (again I very much doubt that games that "aren't that great" would sell en masse like they are on Switch), and it is fine with paying the asking price for most Nintendo titles (barring a few exceptions like Labo and Sushi Striker).



DélioPT said:
curl-6 said:

Satire aside, taking on MS and Sony directly simply is not an option for Nintendo. That would be like vultures trying to compete with lions for the apex predator role on the savanna. They don't have the means to do so, their only viable path to success is to occupy a different niche. When they distinguish themselves from the competition, as with the DS, Wii, and Switch, that's when they thrive.

This idea that Nintendo can be a third juggernaut in the battle of the traditional consoles is a pipe dream that people need to let go.

Given the current state, no, i don't think Nintendo can take Sony and MS head-on.

But they have the means to actually try, they just decided they don't want to.
And i'm not speaking about coming out with a 400$ console full of bells and whistles. I'm talking about the most important aspect of change: games!

Apart from the Wii franchises, how many franchises has Nintendo made that directly appeal to the Sony and MS consumer? Splatoon? Where's the Uncharteds, Halos, Destiny's, etc, etc.?
If Nintendo can't present those games as exclusives + Nintendo franchises it will be really hard for them actually change anything structurally.

To be honest, there's two moves that have gone in the way of said change: marketing to young aduls and above and making serious efforts to bring online titles like Fortnite, Arena of Valor, etc.
To be honest, again, i don't think they have been given enough credit for those changes, specially the latter.

To me, Nintendo needs to take some more serious steps for anything to change in the long term. It's not really a pipedream, it's a work in progress.

I don't deny that diversifying their lineup would be nice, but I'm really not seeing the next PS/Xbox as being a significant threat to Switch, for the same reason lions aren't driving vultures or hyenas to extinction, they occupy different ecological niches.

People buy PS/Xbox to play AAA third party blockbusters, but they buy Switch primarily for the flexibility/convenience of it's "play at home and on the go" premise and for the first party exclusives. That's why, as you say, PS4/Xbone sales were not affected much by Switch's arrival, because they're not in direct competition. PS5/Nextbox will similarly not be in direct competition, because those systems will take over the same niche PS4/Xbone currently fill.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 01 October 2018

Switch is definitely a success because we're beginning to see a ton of shovelware clutter up the eShop and retail shelves. Seriously, it's starting to remind me of the Wii days, though not quite as bad yet.



On 2/24/13, MB1025 said:
You know I was always wondering why no one ever used the dollar sign for $ony, but then I realized they have no money so it would be pointless.