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Forums - Sales Discussion - Is Nintendo Switch really a success?

It has horrible 3rd party support and honestly, sales have more or less started to stabilize/ flatline, there's no hype for the Switch at all. Nintendo's weak third party support and the Switch's inability to run high profile games this gen will only serve to hurt the console.

The switch will probably always play second fiddle to the other consoles simply because it will never get games like Anthem, Red Dead Redemption, Call of Duty, Battlefield, the next elder scrolls and Cyberpunk 2077. Those high profile games will never hit the Switch and will never be able to run on the Switch.

The Switch is fine for a Nintendo audience but it will never be beyond that because it simply cannot be that due to its hardware limitations. Heck the OG Xbox One ran the Black Ops 4 beta at 45 fps, it was struggling and that's one of the least demanding triple-A games right now. Imagine the switch lol. Don't need a repeat of Doom where it ran at 480p 20fps at times.

The Switch is just a Wii, a companion piece to an actual gaming console and that's fine, it's doing well enough.



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adisababa said:
It has horrible 3rd party support and honestly, sales have more or less started to stabilize/ flatline, there's no hype for the Switch at all. Nintendo's weak third party support and the Switch's inability to run high profile games this gen will only serve to hurt the console.

The switch will probably always play second fiddle to the other consoles simply because it will never get games like Anthem, Red Dead Redemption, Call of Duty, Battlefield, the next elder scrolls and Cyberpunk 2077. Those high profile games will never hit the Switch and will never be able to run on the Switch.

The Switch is fine for a Nintendo audience but it will never be beyond that because it simply cannot be that due to its hardware limitations. Heck the OG Xbox One ran the Black Ops 4 beta at 45 fps, it was struggling and that's one of the least demanding triple-A games right now. Imagine the switch lol. Don't need a repeat of Doom where it ran at 480p 20fps at times.

The Switch is just a Wii, a companion piece to an actual gaming console and that's fine, it's doing well enough.

Satire or not, the Switch sales are well above last years. They must be doing something right



Shadow1980 said:

While others have already addressed each "exhibit" already, I wanted to address Exhibit A in more detail.

First off, I don't agree with the whole idea that the Switch needs to sell as much or more than the Wii U and 3DS combined. Home consoles and handhelds are different beasts. Handhelds are typically much cheaper than home consoles. They are also limited to one user, as opposed to home consoles where a single device can support local multiplayer. Because of there, there are likely to be many 3DS-owning households that own more than one 3DS (and don't forget about special editions that people might also buy). Furthermore, there was almost certainly some overlap between Wii U owners and 3DS owners. The Switch is a hybrid, a home console with limited handheld capabilities, combining aspects of both. Its home console aspects allow a single unit to be used by multiple players, unlike a pure handheld. It is affordable for a home console, though expensive for a handheld. The 3DS, though it had a high launch price of $250/¥25,000, it was reduced to $170/¥15,000 just a few months after launch. The 3DS therefore had a massive price advantage over the still $300/¥30,000 Switch.

Now that we have that out of the way, let's take a look at the sales data.

In the U.S., the Switch is handily outpacing the 3DS,. In fact, it's already starting to outpace combined Wii U + 3DS sales, so here in the States it actually is passing that arbitrary goalpost for "success." It is already one of the more successful consoles in the history of the U.S. market. While it hasn't hit the "god-tier" sales of the PS2, Wii, or GBA (the latter of which over-performed mightily in the U.S. compared to Japan and Europe), it has done quite well by any other measure:

 

In Japan, the Switch clearly benefits from having handheld capability. Compared to most other home consoles of the past 20 years, the Switch had an outstanding first year, and is doing great in its second. It's not doing quite as well as the PS2 did, but the PS2 is the best-selling console ever, so again, not a huge strike against it, especially considering the state of the home console market in Japan post-Gen 6. It also didn't start off quite as well as the Wii, but the Wii was extremely front-loaded in Japan, and the Switch is now closing the gap, with sales this quarter exceeding what the Wii did in Q3 2008 by a fairly wide margin, and the Wii was all downhill from here at this point in its life in Japan. The Wii pulled less than 2.9M units in Japan in 2008, a total that the Switch will almost certainly surpass by a few hundred thousand this year.

Compared to other handhelds in the noticeably handheld-friendly Japanese market, the Switch has spent the past year averaging better than the GBA, though isn't doing as well as the 3DS. However, we need to keep in mind that the 3DS was posting massive numbers for the 2011-2013 period, some of the best in the history of the Japanese market (the 3DS's 2012 performance in particular was the third-best year for any single system, after the DS's showings in 2006 & 2007), and it's the #3 best-selling system ever there after the DS and Game Boy. It's also worth pointing out that the 3DS was also a lot cheaper than the Switch. The 3DS started off at ¥25,000, receiving a drop to ¥15,000 a few months later (with the 3DS XL launching at ¥19,000 in 2012), and that was the point where the 3DS kicked into high gear. The Switch at ¥30k was actually doing better than the 3DS was at ¥25k. The Switch is doing quite well considering its price and the lack of games that are massive system-sellers for Nintendo handhelds. Once it gets a price drop, Gen VII Pokemon, and maybe a hardware revision (pure handheld with longer battery life, maybe?), it should do even better.

As for Europe, the Switch is, like in the U.S., not posting PS2/Wii/PS4 monster-sized sales, but if VGC numbers are any indication it is still handily outpacing the 3DS and PSP, and is even coming pretty damn close to combined 3DS+Wii U sales. Shipment data also indicates the Switch is outpacing the GBA by a fair margin. Overall, it will likely end up one of the best-selling non-PlayStation consoles ever in the region.

In conclusion, I think it's safe to say that the Switch is a success so far.

Great job with tables and great post.

 

DélioPT said:
curl-6 said:

Exactly, Switch will fail without super-massive AAA games such as these, that's why it's selling worse than the Wii U, since the Wii U at least had COD.

I don't think i mentioned failure of any kind.

What i said still stands: it hasn't gotten those big titles, despite the huge success of the console and the fact that in terms of age demographics and userbase, it's very similar to XB1 and PS4.
Not even announcements are being made.

Kinda makes you think how sustainable this success will be in the long run, doesn't it?
What will happen the next time there's no selling concept, no return to greatness for Zelda and Mario to sell the next HW or fend off the incoming PS5 and XB2? Wouldn't it be better if Switch already had that kind of library and be seen as a real alternative to Sony and MS?

Not having those BIG games might not seem much now, but when the times comes, it surely will make a difference! 

You again having hard time with logic..Wii also was huge succes and from all those games received only CoD, so buy your point Wii also wasnt succes because didnt recived those games at all, or because Switch still didnt recived those games yet.

Demographic of Switch and XB1/PS4 isn't same, 43% of Switch user base are 25-34 years people while for instance 18. years old or less represent only 20%. That's quite different compared to PS4/XB1 user demographic.

"Kinda makes you think how sustainable this success will be in the long run, doesn't it"!?  Not at all, how Switch will be more and more appealing device how is getting more releases and divers games, price point getting down and getting revisions. For instance how price point going down, kid user demographic will significantly be changed, same like for people that will buy Switch like secondary device.

You realy dont get Nintendo at all, they act and making different strategies compared to Sony/MS on purpose, they know they have best chanches for succes if they dont compete with them head to head thats they trying difrent things. You dont get that Switch is already alternative to PS4/XB1, PS4 and XB1 are very similar but Switch is console that actually quite different and offer direct experienced to them, that why plenty of PS4/XB1 owners bought it like secondary console. Offcourse it would be better that Switch has all 3rd party games, but they couldn't do Switch like hybrid console for $300 and to have for instance similar tech/power like XB1/PS4, in other words Switch will sell much better than that would Nintendo clone of PS4/XB1.

Those games would make some difference, but they are not key for success for Nintendo hardware like they are for MS/Sony consoles, Wii, DS, 3DS and now Switch are clear example of that. Switch is already success and it will be much bigger success (Switch will hardly sell less than 80m and easiily can do 100m+) despite those games.



DélioPT said:
curl-6 said:

Exactly, Switch will fail without super-massive AAA games such as these, that's why it's selling worse than the Wii U, since the Wii U at least had COD.

I don't think i mentioned failure of any kind.

What i said still stands: it hasn't gotten those big titles, despite the huge success of the console and the fact that in terms of age demographics and userbase, it's very similar to XB1 and PS4.
Not even announcements are being made.

Kinda makes you think how sustainable this success will be in the long run, doesn't it?
What will happen the next time there's no selling concept, no return to greatness for Zelda and Mario to sell the next HW or fend off the incoming PS5 and XB2? Wouldn't it be better if Switch already had that kind of library and be seen as a real alternative to Sony and MS?

Not having those BIG games might not seem much now, but when the times comes, it surely will make a difference! 

The logic you are using is pretty backwards.

The fact that a high percentage of Switch owners also own a PS4/XBO shows that PS4/XBO owners are buying a Switch for experiences not found on the systems they already own so missing out on the games you are speaking of is not going to affect Switch in any meaningful way.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Rol is this you[? someone must have hijacked the account.

Anyways, its too early to say the switch isn't a success. If anything the previous 18 months indicates that it is.

I'm more interested to see how it does over a 3 year period. Especially wht happens to it when the PS5 and XB2 is released. If by then it has gained enough mrket presence and relevance to be immune to all the fanfare and hype around the two new consoles. Espeically being that then the technical divide will be even greater than it is now. I'm curious to see if then nintendo will still maintain its hybrid stance or switch tunes to the switch being a portable first console. no pun intended.



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adisababa said:
It has horrible 3rd party support and honestly, sales have more or less started to stabilize/ flatline, there's no hype for the Switch at all. Nintendo's weak third party support and the Switch's inability to run high profile games this gen will only serve to hurt the console.

The switch will probably always play second fiddle to the other consoles simply because it will never get games like Anthem, Red Dead Redemption, Call of Duty, Battlefield, the next elder scrolls and Cyberpunk 2077. Those high profile games will never hit the Switch and will never be able to run on the Switch.

The Switch is fine for a Nintendo audience but it will never be beyond that because it simply cannot be that due to its hardware limitations. Heck the OG Xbox One ran the Black Ops 4 beta at 45 fps, it was struggling and that's one of the least demanding triple-A games right now. Imagine the switch lol. Don't need a repeat of Doom where it ran at 480p 20fps at times.

The Switch is just a Wii, a companion piece to an actual gaming console and that's fine, it's doing well enough.

You have been saying much of the same thing since the system launched and it has not proven to be true. The Switch has already gone beyond the "Nintendo audience" as 70% of its base consists of existing PS4 and Xbox One owners. As for the no hype statement, the system continues to sell very strongly and it is more or less kept pace with the PS4 in its second year, it has yet to have a price cut, and it came out on top this August and had the best July of the generation; none of that is indicative of console lacking excitement around it. 

While Switch is not getting AAAs, it has a strong library of first-party titles that are highly appealing in the market and that the other systems will not have, it has support of Japanese developers, it is getting decent AA support from third-parties, and it has become quite the target for indies. It is a very much an actual gaming console (despite your claims) that is offering something the other platforms simply do not, which is its portability. For people that primarily like to do heavy gaming on portables the Switch will become their main system, and for those that enjoy playing on portables in addition to gaming on stationary systems like PC/Xbox/PS then the Switch makes an excellent companion (much like 3DS, Vita, PSP, DS, GBA, etc) did before.



Intrinsic said:

I'm more interested to see how it does over a 3 year period. Especially wht happens to it when the PS5 and XB2 is released. If by then it has gained enough mrket presence and relevance to be immune to all the fanfare and hype around the two new consoles. Espeically being that then the technical divide will be even greater than it is now. I'm curious to see if then nintendo will still maintain its hybrid stance or switch tunes to the switch being a portable first console. no pun intended.

I dont really think PS5/XB4 will have much of an affect on Switch. Assuming they release in 2020/2021, by then Switch will probably have a price cut or two, a couple revisions and a large selection of exclusive titles (possibly a line of $20 Nintendo Selects).

Let's say by then Switch has separate handheld and micro console skus for $149-199, I really doubt the $399-499 powerful consoles will be direct competitors.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Intrinsic said:

I'm more interested to see how it does over a 3 year period. Especially wht happens to it when the PS5 and XB2 is released. If by then it has gained enough mrket presence and relevance to be immune to all the fanfare and hype around the two new consoles. Espeically being that then the technical divide will be even greater than it is now. I'm curious to see if then nintendo will still maintain its hybrid stance or switch tunes to the switch being a portable first console. no pun intended.

I dont really think PS5/XB4 will have much of an affect on Switch. Assuming they release in 2020/2021, by then Switch will probably have a price cut or two, a couple revisions and a large selection of exclusive titles (possibly a line of $20 Nintendo Selects).

Let's say by then Switch has separate handheld and micro console skus for $149-199, I really doubt the $399-499 powerful consoles will be direct competitors.

I recall NPD group's Mat Piscatella saying on ResetERA that the Switch does not appear to be competing directly with the PS4 and Xbox One in the United States. Whereas, most people are likely to pick one stationary system (so either a PS4 and Xbox One; hence those two are competing directly with each other), it seems like people are willing to purchase a stationary system plus the portable Switch. In fact, this is pretty much confirmed by the fact that 70% of Switch owners in the US also have a stationary system. Beyond that, Piscatella mentions that Switch is also picking up lapsed gamers as well. Since Switch is not competing directly with PS4 and Xbox One, I very much doubt that it will compete with their successors directly either.

For Nintendo, Switch is mainly a home console where its distinguishing feature is its portability. This view of the product works for Nintendo because they tend to take different approach to their hardware, particularly their home consoles (which have not for a while emphasized things like graphics, while placing more emphasis on novel ideas). However, I feel the market itself, particularly in the West, views the Switch as a portable console (much like 3DS, Vita, DS, PSP, etc), hence why they are purchasing the system alongside the stationary systems. Going with this perspective, Switch sales should not be impacted by the launch next-gen hardware. After all, portables like GB,GBA, DS, PSP, Vita, 3DS all launched shortly before or during a stationary console generation change (with the stationary consoles obviously being far more powerful than they were) and none were really impacted by the change. The only real challenge I can see new consoles (or any new high profile consumer product for that matter) will present will be for mind share, which Nintendo can maintain so long as they and their partners deliver with a steady flow of high profile games, price the system correctly as it goes through its life cycle, and continue correctly and continuously advertising the system. 



Miyamotoo said:
Shadow1980 said:

 

 

DélioPT said:

I don't think i mentioned failure of any kind.

What i said still stands: it hasn't gotten those big titles, despite the huge success of the console and the fact that in terms of age demographics and userbase, it's very similar to XB1 and PS4.
Not even announcements are being made.

Kinda makes you think how sustainable this success will be in the long run, doesn't it?
What will happen the next time there's no selling concept, no return to greatness for Zelda and Mario to sell the next HW or fend off the incoming PS5 and XB2? Wouldn't it be better if Switch already had that kind of library and be seen as a real alternative to Sony and MS?

Not having those BIG games might not seem much now, but when the times comes, it surely will make a difference! 

You again having hard time with logic..Wii also was huge succes and from all those games received only CoD, so buy your point Wii also wasnt succes because didnt recived those games at all, or because Switch still didnt recived those games yet.

Demographic of Switch and XB1/PS4 isn't same, 43% of Switch user base are 25-34 years people while for instance 18. years old or less represent only 20%. That's quite different compared to PS4/XB1 user demographic.

"Kinda makes you think how sustainable this success will be in the long run, doesn't it"!?  Not at all, how Switch will be more and more appealing device how is getting more releases and divers games, price point getting down and getting revisions. For instance how price point going down, kid user demographic will significantly be changed, same like for people that will buy Switch like secondary device.

You realy dont get Nintendo at all, they act and making different strategies compared to Sony/MS on purpose, they know they have best chanches for succes if they dont compete with them head to head thats they trying difrent things. You dont get that Switch is already alternative to PS4/XB1, PS4 and XB1 are very similar but Switch is console that actually quite different and offer direct experienced to them, that why plenty of PS4/XB1 owners bought it like secondary console. Offcourse it would be better that Switch has all 3rd party games, but they couldn't do Switch like hybrid console for $300 and to have for instance similar tech/power like XB1/PS4, in other words Switch will sell much better than that would Nintendo clone of PS4/XB1.

Those games would make some difference, but they are not key for success for Nintendo hardware like they are for MS/Sony consoles, Wii, DS, 3DS and now Switch are clear example of that. Switch is already success and it will be much bigger success (Switch will hardly sell less than 80m and easiily can do 100m+) despite those games.

"Wii also was huge success (…)"
Yes, it was. Not because it competed directly with PS3 and Xb360, but because they went after a completely different market.

I don't know what the age demographic is on a age by age basis. Still, i said similar, not equal. And the 70% of users for the US market prove that.

"Switch will be more and more appealing device how is getting more releases and divers games, price point getting down and getting revisions."
It's a possibility. But we are not talking about diversity for the sake of diversity, we are talking about meaningful diversity - you know, the CODs, GTAs, etc.etc. That's what most Switch users buy on their main systems.

Systems like PS2, SNES and other aren't remembered by the sheer quantity of titles. It's the exclusives, the big 3rd party titles that always come up first when talking about systems like those.

"You dont get that Switch is already alternative to PS4/XB1"
That's strange… i'd swear Switch had no impact on PS4 and XB1 and that only 30% of US Switch owners didn't have a PS4 or XB1.
We must have different visions on what "alternative" means.
Or maybe we don't: "that's why plenty of PS4/XB1 owners bought it like secondary console."  

I'm not asking for a clone. What i've always said is that 3rd party games are the reason consoles succeed… in a normal situation.
Nintendo knows this and if they decide to make a system that can't handle them, then they know the risks.
So far, Switch has enough reasons to correct that flaw, but what made Switch a success (all of this things) happen once in a blue moon and won't last forever.
As i said to you before: they have one a battle, but not the war.

Switch is a device like no other and it's also living off of whatever userbase PS4 and XB1 create.
I wouldn't be so quick to say this or that about Switch's future when it's real test still hasn't come: compete with new platforms.

zorg1000 said:
DélioPT said:

 

The logic you are using is pretty backwards.

The fact that a high percentage of Switch owners also own a PS4/XBO shows that PS4/XBO owners are buying a Switch for experiences not found on the systems they already own so missing out on the games you are speaking of is not going to affect Switch in any meaningful way.

Are you sure?


The data shows that Switch is not the primary console for the mass market; There are also enough users out there for Switch to keep living as a secondary console, but what will happen when Switch has to fight against new consoles?
Switch achieved all this but couldn't really change anything structurally for Nintendo.

If the market isn't willing to make Switch a primary console with all this, why should it do it when PS5 and XBnew arrive?
Wouldn't Switch put up a better fight if it also had the games it's userbase loves playing on other consoles?

It's easy to say that gamers are buying Switch because of what it offers that the others don't (i agree, btw). But in the end, it's been pretty much because there's no real alternative to Switch.



DélioPT said:
 


zorg1000 said:

The logic you are using is pretty backwards.

The fact that a high percentage of Switch owners also own a PS4/XBO shows that PS4/XBO owners are buying a Switch for experiences not found on the systems they already own so missing out on the games you are speaking of is not going to affect Switch in any meaningful way.

Are you sure?


The data shows that Switch is not the primary console for the mass market; There are also enough users out there for Switch to keep living as a secondary console, but what will happen when Switch has to fight against new consoles?
Switch achieved all this but couldn't really change anything structurally for Nintendo.

If the market isn't willing to make Switch a primary console with all this, why should it do it when PS5 and XBnew arrive?
Wouldn't Switch put up a better fight if it also had the games it's userbase loves playing on other consoles?

It's easy to say that gamers are buying Switch because of what it offers that the others don't (i agree, btw). But in the end, it's been pretty much because there's no real alternative to Switch.

How does the data show that it's not a primary console? That's a fact pulled right out of nowhere.

By the time PS5/XB4 release, Switch could potentially be in the $150-200 price range with a couple revisions and dozens of highly rated exclusives, $400-500 powerful consoles will not be direct competition, they will coexist just like Switch currently does with PS4/XBO.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.