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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan Sales Week 38 Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - September 17-23, 2018

Miyamotoo said:
Kerotan said:

Yeah it was back then it clearly isn't now. 3ds was an extremely weak piece of hardware compared to the switch which is a powerful device capable of good looking games. The market clearly shows 300 is no problem for this portable piece of hardware. 

Its not point about strength of hardware at all and that really wasn't never point of Nintendo hardware, Vita was much stronger than 3DS and 3DS destroyed Vita in sales, same like DS sold much better than PSP. Simple $300 is still high price point to have popularity and sales like Nintendo handhelds usually have in Japan, when Switch have price point of around $200 in Japan, than Switch sales will really explode, with around that price point Nintendo goal with Switch will start fulfilling, and thats that Switch become device per person instead of device per family (they literally said that, but also that current price point is still not yet there).

Switch sales already exploded. They will explode again with new games and new price but in the end i don't see it selling much more then 3ds if even any. In todays world switch has shown a 300 portable console isn't a problem. Vitas problems was its games not its power or price. 



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Let's have a look in detail...I select a week far enough from today so the numbers has been adjusted. The switch had a pretty average week in Japan :
19th May 2018 :

Switch :
USA : population 326M --> 41600 NS + 53300 PS4 = 94900 units
Japan : Population 127M --> 32800 NS + 16700 PS4 = 49500 units
France : Population 67M --> 11900 NS + 10400 PS4 = 22300 units

woahh...Japan sucks with the consoles market.



Kerotan said:
Miyamotoo said:

Its not point about strength of hardware at all and that really wasn't never point of Nintendo hardware, Vita was much stronger than 3DS and 3DS destroyed Vita in sales, same like DS sold much better than PSP. Simple $300 is still high price point to have popularity and sales like Nintendo handhelds usually have in Japan, when Switch have price point of around $200 in Japan, than Switch sales will really explode, with around that price point Nintendo goal with Switch will start fulfilling, and thats that Switch become device per person instead of device per family (they literally said that, but also that current price point is still not yet there).

Switch sales already exploded. They will explode again with new games and new price but in the end i don't see it selling much more then 3ds if even any. In todays world switch has shown a 300 portable console isn't a problem. Vitas problems was its games not its power or price. 

Hardly sales can explode when Switch still has launch price point and actual home console price point, so no, they didnt still explode, fact that Switch is selling good with curent price point doesn't mean that sales explode, Switch is still selling one Switch per family/household. I talking about Japan specifically, and $300 is still high price point to have popularity and sales like Nintendo handhelds usually have in Japan. But 3DS also was very weak and ended 3rd best selling gaming devaice in Japan ever, also PSP was stronger than DS and DS sold almost twise better than PSP, so like I wrote, strength of hardware wasn't never reason if some Nintendo hardware is selling good or bad. Its way too early too say how much Switch will sell in Japan LT, it will depends of how low Switch can go with price point, how much revisions it will have and how long life span of Switch will be (Nintendo said they planing longer than usual 6 years). For now Switch is selling very good despite still have high price point for handheld and despite still have launch price point, in this time of 3DS lifespan, 3DS had almost twice time lower price point.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 28 September 2018

theDX said:
Miyamotoo said:

Smartphones are not consoles. Dont forget, $250 price point for 3DS was huge problem for 3DS sales, that why 3DS had huge price point to $170 only 6 months after launch.

He has a point though. The 3DS launched before smartphones took off in Japan. The iPhone 4S was one of the first successful smartphones there and it came out in September 2011.

America in 2011: 42% of phones were smartphones (source)

Japan in 2011: 18% of phones were smartphones (source)

In 2011 the majority of consumers (even in America) didn't want to spend >$250 on a new phone. However, by 2014 smartphones hit ~70% market penetration in both markets. This is when most consumers would have gotten used to the higher prices.

I think this change in perception of value in recent years arguably helped the Switch.

It might have even helped the PS4 Pro and Xbox One X. Because remember people shitting on the Xbox One because it launched at $499? That was in 2013. Same year as the Switch launched we got the Xbox One X which also cost $499 at launch and no one cared. But that is difficult to compare because the base consoles are cheaper now.

Couldn't have said it better myself. That is fact. 



theDX said:
Miyamotoo said:

Smartphones are not consoles. Dont forget, $250 price point for 3DS was huge problem for 3DS sales, that why 3DS had huge price point to $170 only 6 months after launch.

He has a point though. The 3DS launched before smartphones took off in Japan. The iPhone 4S was one of the first successful smartphones there and it came out in September 2011.

America in 2011: 42% of phones were smartphones (source)

Japan in 2011: 18% of phones were smartphones (source)

In 2011 the majority of consumers (even in America) didn't want to spend >$250 on a new phone. However, by 2014 smartphones hit ~70% market penetration in both markets. This is when most consumers would have gotten used to the higher prices.

I think this change in perception of value in recent years arguably helped the Switch.

It might have even helped the PS4 Pro and Xbox One X. Because remember people shitting on the Xbox One because it launched at $499? That was in 2013. Same year as the Switch launched we got the Xbox One X which also cost $499 at launch and no one cared. But that is difficult to compare because the base consoles are cheaper now.

No he doesn't, we even before iPhone 4S had expansive phones but that wasnt really my point, my is point is fact that phones are not only gaming handhelds and dont have same value and perception like gaming consoles/handhelds (in this case Switch).

Switch is a hybrid (in Japan on first place is handheld) that can be used only for games, you cant do almost anything with Switch expect playing games, with phone you can play games, make audio and video calls, browsing internet, watching YouTube, listening music, taking pictures, taking audio record, using GPS, making calculations, using them for school or job tasks...phones are basically mini computers they can do almost everything you can do with PC, while Switch is just a gaming handheld. So people are generally much more willing to gave $200-500 for phones that can be used in every day life and for wide variety of things than they are to gave $300 just for device that can play only games like Switch.

Point that 3DS launched before smartphones took off in Japan actually goes in favour of Switch, today phones/tablets are incomparable much more popular then they were in 2011/2012, phone/tablet gaming is very popular in Japan and Switch thats on first place handheld in Japan is competing with phones/tablets also, and price point is huge factor in that competition.

Talking about comparison with consoles/handhelds, Switch still has launch price point and actual home console price point, while you can buy 2DS for $80 currently, Switch is still selling one Switch per family/household (phones/tablets are on device per person) and $300 is still high price point to have popularity and sales like Nintendo handhelds usually have in Japan, so yeah, Switch sales yet need to explode in Japan.

Perception and value did change but for phones, not really for consoles/handhelds, smartphones today generally have much more higher value than phones had in 2011/2012. Comparing price points of launch Xbox and Xbox One X are totally different things, people shitting on $499 Xbox launch price point because we had PS4 that was actually stronger and had $100 lower price point and that was one of main reasons why PS4 was selling so better and why MS made fast price cut, of course that no one cared about $499 Xbox One X price point when we talking about mid gen upgrade with much stronger hardware (around 4x stronger than base Xbox One) made for 4K gaming, so $500-600 price point was actualy expected for Xbox X.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 30 September 2018

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theDX said:
Miyamotoo said:

Smartphones are not consoles. Dont forget, $250 price point for 3DS was huge problem for 3DS sales, that why 3DS had huge price point to $170 only 6 months after launch.

He has a point though. The 3DS launched before smartphones took off in Japan. The iPhone 4S was one of the first successful smartphones there and it came out in September 2011.

America in 2011: 42% of phones were smartphones (source)

Japan in 2011: 18% of phones were smartphones (source)

In 2011 the majority of consumers (even in America) didn't want to spend >$250 on a new phone. However, by 2014 smartphones hit ~70% market penetration in both markets. This is when most consumers would have gotten used to the higher prices.

I think this change in perception of value in recent years arguably helped the Switch.

It might have even helped the PS4 Pro and Xbox One X. Because remember people shitting on the Xbox One because it launched at $499? That was in 2013. Same year as the Switch launched we got the Xbox One X which also cost $499 at launch and no one cared. But that is difficult to compare because the base consoles are cheaper now.

This has one big flaw, though: What normal consumer actually buys a phone for the listed price?

Almost no one, as everybody take them with their smartphone subscription. So even a 1000$ phone doesn't feel nearly that expensive in the end, even though the monthly subscription is a whooping 100$.

If Nintendo would do the same as Smartphones, then gamers would only have to pay the symbolical 1$ upfront and pay 20$ per month for 2 years, after which you can choose yo keep it or continue to pay another 2 years for an upgraded Switch. In the end it would be much more to pay to Nintendo, but for consumers, since one doesn't pay a large sum at any point there, it just feels cheaper, not more expensive.



theDX is right in bringing the perception aspect of prices.
The consumers that are willing to shell out hundreds of dollars for a new smartphone every other year (iphones, for example), even if in installments, are the same consumers that buy consoles.

Before, consoles were relatively expensive, nowdays they aren't - if you take into consideration the rise of other "essential" products that people use.

If it's true that 3DS costed 120$ (after the price cut) less than Switch, it's also true that Switch has other system selling advantages: you can play on the go and on the TV; more system sellers and, overall, more games to play than the 3DS had at the same point in time.
Thing is, comparing both second years, 3DS is kicking Switc's ass. And price alone is not the only reason for that, if it even is the main reason at all.



theDX said:

He has a point though. The 3DS launched before smartphones took off in Japan. The iPhone 4S was one of the first successful smartphones there and it came out in September 2011.

America in 2011: 42% of phones were smartphones (source)

Japan in 2011: 18% of phones were smartphones (source)

In 2011 the majority of consumers (even in America) didn't want to spend >$250 on a new phone. However, by 2014 smartphones hit ~70% market penetration in both markets. This is when most consumers would have gotten used to the higher prices.

I think this change in perception of value in recent years arguably helped the Switch.

It might have even helped the PS4 Pro and Xbox One X. Because remember people shitting on the Xbox One because it launched at $499? That was in 2013. Same year as the Switch launched we got the Xbox One X which also cost $499 at launch and no one cared. But that is difficult to compare because the base consoles are cheaper now.

Not really as smart phones and such are mostly obtained either for free or a small deposit depending on the contract deal by the service provider, this is the main reason why smart phones took off as people still don't want to spend more than 250 on anything. It wasn't really a change in perception of value it was that the devices became more widely affordable due to contract deals which actually backs Miyamoto's point.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
theDX said:

He has a point though. The 3DS launched before smartphones took off in Japan. The iPhone 4S was one of the first successful smartphones there and it came out in September 2011.

America in 2011: 42% of phones were smartphones (source)

Japan in 2011: 18% of phones were smartphones (source)

In 2011 the majority of consumers (even in America) didn't want to spend >$250 on a new phone. However, by 2014 smartphones hit ~70% market penetration in both markets. This is when most consumers would have gotten used to the higher prices.

I think this change in perception of value in recent years arguably helped the Switch.

It might have even helped the PS4 Pro and Xbox One X. Because remember people shitting on the Xbox One because it launched at $499? That was in 2013. Same year as the Switch launched we got the Xbox One X which also cost $499 at launch and no one cared. But that is difficult to compare because the base consoles are cheaper now.

This has one big flaw, though: What normal consumer actually buys a phone for the listed price?

Almost no one, as everybody take them with their smartphone subscription. So even a 1000$ phone doesn't feel nearly that expensive in the end, even though the monthly subscription is a whooping 100$.

If Nintendo would do the same as Smartphones, then gamers would only have to pay the symbolical 1$ upfront and pay 20$ per month for 2 years, after which you can choose yo keep it or continue to pay another 2 years for an upgraded Switch. In the end it would be much more to pay to Nintendo, but for consumers, since one doesn't pay a large sum at any point there, it just feels cheaper, not more expensive.

Yeah also this, when people getting smartphones through subscriptions (and most people do that) they feel like getting phone almost for free, while they still need to play $300 for Switch and $60 for each game (at least when we talk about Nintendo games).



DélioPT said:
theDX is right in bringing the perception aspect of prices.
The consumers that are willing to shell out hundreds of dollars for a new smartphone every other year (iphones, for example), even if in installments, are the same consumers that buy consoles.

Before, consoles were relatively expensive, nowdays they aren't - if you take into consideration the rise of other "essential" products that people use.

If it's true that 3DS costed 120$ (after the price cut) less than Switch, it's also true that Switch has other system selling advantages: you can play on the go and on the TV; more system sellers and, overall, more games to play than the 3DS had at the same point in time.
Thing is, comparing both second years, 3DS is kicking Switc's ass. And price alone is not the only reason for that, if it even is the main reason at all.

No his point is wrong, smartphones generally have much higher value and incomparable much higher appealing on whole market thats why they are easily most popular tech device in world that every year sold hundreds of millions of phones/tablets that cost hundreds of dollars while consoles all consoles sell less 50m combined, while Switch is only gaming devaice and cant do almost anything except gaming. Also like people stated, most people buying phones through subscriptions while you can buy Switch only for cash.

Value and cost of consoles didn't really changed much , while you cant say same same thing for smartphones, sales and price points of consoles last few gens proves that.

It actually costed $130 less than Switch after price cut, we comparing $300 and $170 price points, that huge difference. Its true that Switch definatly has higher value because hybrid nature than 3DS, but we talking here about Japan market where people definitely buying Switch for handheld side primarly, and for plenty of people in Japan $300 is high price for handheld device. But thats a point, 3DS needed huge price cut only 6 months after launch in order to start selling while 1.5 later Switch still has launch price point, offcourse that in Japan $170 3DS will sell better than $300 Switch simple because $300 is high price to start like Nintendo handhelds usually selling in Japan and to sell like one device per person, but when Switch actually go down with price point of around $200 sales will explode and than Switch will start selling like device per person instead currents device per family. Much lower price point is only reason why 3DS is selling better than Switch curently, I mean $200 Switch would destroy 3DS sales even in Japan, but Nintendo isnt in hurry to make price cut for Switch because Switch is selling very well in any case and they making quite a profit at every sold Switch while they were making loss with every sold 3DS after price cut.