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Forums - Nintendo - Pachter: Switch on track to sell only 8 million systems this Fiscal Year

How was the game release schedule for Nintendo in their Q1 and how much of an impact did those games have on the Switch sales? Too lazy to check myself. What I'm going for is trying to get some kind of a notion as to how much of an impact game releases are having at this point in the Switch's lifecycle. I know that some big guns are still on the way, but you guys are experts compared to me.



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PwerlvlAmy said:
has pachter ever been right about anything,good or bad? cant recall

I think he expected big success for WiiU.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

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Mnementh said:
Megiddo said:

Title needs to be updated as he only mentions that the Switch is tracking towards only shipping 8 mil this fiscal year, which is basically just saying that the first quarter was awful, which it was. Nintendo needs stronger quarters than that if it hopes to come even close to shipping 20 million this fiscal year.

Yeah, he says they are tracking for 8M. But he follows up with 'They'll miss by a mile'. So, does he genuinely think that nothing changes the other quarters? I mean, he is in the industry long enough to know, this quarter is usually pretty low, and Q3 will be much higher. So even only considering basically constant performance the usual doubling in Q3 would mean Switch is on track for 10 million. So I really don't understand why he followed up with, that Nintendo will miss by a mile. He must know pretty well, that it will go up - by how much iis up in the air.

All depends on what a person thinks "miss by a mile" means. It's not a direct quantitative assessment. If Switch misses the goal by 4 million would that be missing by a mile? Some would say yes and some would say no. 



KLXVER said:
How much has it sold between april 1st this year and now?

According to VGC, Switch had a lifetime of 16,007,373 at March 31st, and is at 18,542,155 at July 7th. That makes 2,534,782 sold unit until then. Since then we have 6 more weeks. With just below 200K each week, Switch should have at least another million more. So 3.5M is a good conservative guess. Upper end may be near 4M. Somewhere in this window. We have still half of August and full September for Q2.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

It's important to remember that Pachter doesn't cover Nintendo professionally; it's not one of the stocks that he analyses for a job. His comments were off-the-cuff on Pachter Factor and he said some stuff about Nintendo being “out to lunch” and “having no strategy”. His original position on the Switch is that it wouldn't sell at the price and he's still saying it needs to cut its price. Now he's saying that PS5 will kill Switch and talking about Switch only as a home console, not as a portable.

He's pretty sharp but he's very close to the interests of the U.S. industry (he consistently backs the big companies against allegations of anti-consumer practices) and he often sounds like he's been drinking their Kool-Aid when he talks about Nintendo.



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setsunatenshi said:
melbye said:
Being an analyst must be the easiest job in the workl, just look at some numbers say some crap and it doesn't matter if you are wrong

So why don't you do it then hotshot!? I can assure you he gets paid really well at his job. It's comical how people don't even understand the nature of his job but still feel they can do it better.

I'm under the impression, he might be more diligent then working for paying customers, then making wild speculations in an interview or in Youtube videos. The journalists adding the title analyst to his predictions do him wrong, as he makes these as a common forum dweller, not in his function as analyst.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

JRPGfan said:
8m more from now until end of december?

He is talking about Nintendos 20M prediction, so until April 1st 2018 to March 31st 2019.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

Ka-pi96 said:
Bristow9091 said:
Now, if you switch "Switch" for "Wii U", he might have a point, but, well... wow. At this point he's basically become a meme with how... let's say interesting, his predictions are, lol.

You think Wii U will sell 8m this year? :O

It would be lucky to get to 80k let alone 8m

I think the WiiU had never 8M in one year. Maybe 4M.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

palou said:
contestgamer said:
Pachter has been right with MOST o his predictions for the past 10 years I've followed him. Sure, he's not right 100% of the time, but he's usually accurate, so this seems likely.

hmm, wanna make the bet? I'd give you 2 million in leg room, if you want to...

Let's say, you win if official shipped numbers are less than 10 mil? 

He'll never take you up on this bet because he doesn't actually believe what he says. I think there's a word for people who say shit they know to be untrue just to rile up others... it somehow escapes me right now...

Last edited by TruckOSaurus - on 20 August 2018

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Dulfite said:
Lol, and I just read someone is now predicting 25 million. Pokemon and SSB gonna be huge.

Thats plain stupid too imo.
Its looking like Nintendo might have a hard time reaching the 20m they forecasted.
Expecting they beat that by 5m is unrealistic, its more likely nintendo lowers its forecasts (I think).


I think nintendo does ~19m this Fisical Year (about 1m lower than its current forecast).