MK8 DX: Over 60M (Could see it maybe possibly potentially even surpassing Wii Sports if there is no new MK on Switch and if we don't get a Switch 2 until Late 2025...DLC would help MK8 DX as well)

BOTW: 40M (I feel like BOTW 2 helps sales, with it being a sequel and still being at least several months away...maybe a release of BOTW with DLC included on disc would help as well)

SMO: 35M (kind of bullish on this, but I could at least see it reaching 30M with a Nintendo Selects release, especially if there is no SMO 2 to cut into sales)

Splatoon 2: 17M (not too sure about this one, but it has certainly already sold what I thought it would sell lifetime. Not sure how Splatoon 3 will change things. Might help initially.)

Going to add a few more big ones:

SSBU: 41M (narrowly surpasses BOTW in my opinion because I feel like Nintendo will release a version of SSBU with all DLC included)

SWSH: 27M (with the "third version" being DLC, I feel like there isn't much to cut into SWSH's legs, especially since other Switch Pokemon games all look different)

ACNH: 60M (sold over 30M in less than a year...can't see it being out of reach for the game to sell another 30M over the next half a decade or so).

Switch software has definitely been selling like crazy. I wouldn't be surprised if some of my predictions are considered low balling in a few short years.

Original Evergreens:

MK8D - 60 million

BOTW - 42 million

SMO - 32 million

SPL2 - 20 million

------------------------------------

Newer Evergreens:

ACNH - 55 million

SSBU - 40 million

SWSH - 27 million

RFA - 23 million

SMP - 22 million

These were my guesses 2.5 years ago.  I really lowballed both Mario and Zelda.  My Mario Kart and Splatoon predictions still don't look too bad though.

People really underestimated the Switch evergreens back then.

Here's my prediction:
BotW: 40m
SMO: 28m
MK8D: 58m
Splat2: 15m
SMP: 20m
SSBU: 38m
ACNH: 55m
RFA: 20m
NSMBUD: 18m
LM3: 17m
SWSH: 26m

There is no way Splatoon 2 is going to reach 20mil when Splatoon 3 is coming out next year.

Crazy how well everything has sold since this thread was made.

Current predictions for evergreens:

MK8D - 50+ million - as long as no MK9 comes
AC - 45 million - sales seem to be getting down in normal evergreen range now so don't think we'll see 50 million
SSBU - 35 million - evergreen until Switch is gone
BotW - 33 million - will be interesting to see how BotW2 affects sales, but expect it to keep selling for life of the system
SMO - 29 million - will continue to be a lower evergreen for rest of Switch's life
Poke Sw/Sh - 27 million - new Pokemon games will hurt Sw/Sh sales
SMP - 20 million - great evergreen that started smaller than other huge games, but at some point they'll release another
SPL2 - 15 million - lower evergreen, but with #3 coming out next year these sales will die off
Poke Let's Go - 15 million - ok it's not an evergreen but still slowly grinding up, can easily do another 2 million
NSMBUD - 15 million - at some point Nintendo will release a Switch 2D Mario game but this game has plenty left in the sales tank
RFA - 15 million - will keep selling well and if Nintendo launches another Ring game (they should!) I think that'll only benefit sales of RFA


Future announced evergreen games:

BotW2 - 25 million
Poke D/P remake - 20 million
SPL3 - 15 million maaaaybe
Poke Legends: Arceus - 20+ million?? - this is a big unknown, seems like the Wild Areas concept from Sw/Sh expanded into a full game, could really reinvigorate the series on a conceptual level (as BotW did for Zelda), but sales will depend on execution and scope of game. Also with an announced early 2022 launch it seems like it'll be coming out within a half year of Pokemon D/P remake, it would make more sense if they push this back to a 2022 holiday release.

Well, I'd be lying if I said I knew it would hit these numbers this soon... or maybe not? I don't actually remember what I was thinking on that day all those years ago. Probably something inappropriate.

AC: 57 million
MK8D: 55 million
SSBU: 35 million
Pokemon Gen VIII: 33 million
BOTW: 29 million
Super Mario Odyssey: 27 million
Pokemon Let's Go: 19 million
Super Mario Party: 18 million
Splatoon 2: 17 million
Luigi's Mansion 3: 13 million
NSMBUDX: 13 million

At least 2 copies or more.

Super Mario Party already outsold Pokèmon Let's Go and is selling way faster, there is no way it's going to fall behind again unless SMP2 releases this year. We'll see.