As of Now How much do You Expect Nintendo's 4 Major Evergreens to Sell Lifetime? (MK8D/SMO/BotW/Splat2)

[Slownenberg]

Crazy how well everything has sold since this thread was made.

Current predictions for evergreens:

MK8D - 50+ million - as long as no MK9 comes
AC - 45 million - sales seem to be getting down in normal evergreen range now so don't think we'll see 50 million
SSBU - 35 million - evergreen until Switch is gone
BotW - 33 million - will be interesting to see how BotW2 affects sales, but expect it to keep selling for life of the system
SMO - 29 million - will continue to be a lower evergreen for rest of Switch's life
Poke Sw/Sh - 27 million - new Pokemon games will hurt Sw/Sh sales
SMP - 20 million - great evergreen that started smaller than other huge games, but at some point they'll release another
SPL2 - 15 million - lower evergreen, but with #3 coming out next year these sales will die off
Poke Let's Go - 15 million - ok it's not an evergreen but still slowly grinding up, can easily do another 2 million
NSMBUD - 15 million - at some point Nintendo will release a Switch 2D Mario game but this game has plenty left in the sales tank
RFA - 15 million - will keep selling well and if Nintendo launches another Ring game (they should!) I think that'll only benefit sales of RFA


Future announced evergreen games:

BotW2 - 25 million
Poke D/P remake - 20 million
SPL3 - 15 million maaaaybe
Poke Legends: Arceus - 20+ million?? - this is a big unknown, seems like the Wild Areas concept from Sw/Sh expanded into a full game, could really reinvigorate the series on a conceptual level (as BotW did for Zelda), but sales will depend on execution and scope of game. Also with an announced early 2022 launch it seems like it'll be coming out within a half year of Pokemon D/P remake, it would make more sense if they push this back to a 2022 holiday release.