Like a lot of us expected, hardware shipments in this quarter were a little on the soft side - it's now 9 months since Switch's last system-seller launched (Super Mario Odyssey). Nintendo's evergreen and mid-tier (DK, Tennis, Kirby) hits have performed solidly, but that's only been enough to keep sales flat over last year. Personally, I find it difficult to see where the upswing is going to come in the July to September period; Nintendo will still be banking on middle-tier titles (Octopath, Xenoblade 2: Torna, Labo #3) and the back catalogue to shift the system. Is that really going to see them land a ~3 million quarter?

I still think Nintendo will get close to 20 million, and might even hit it, but they're going to need an insane second half to the FY. A 10 million plus Q3 is a must - and personally I think that will happen - but Q4 is also going to need to be very strong.

Q1: 1.88m
Q2: 2.5-3m
Q3: 10-11m
Q4: 3.5m

That would put them in the 17.88 to 19.38m range; they'd need to find another ~600k + in shipments to hit the 20 million. Not impossible, if Q2 shows genuine improvement over Q1 - and if Q3 is genuinely insane. This should be a firm lesson to Nintendo, though; they need to work to make sure their system-sellers land more consistently throughout the year.

Great software numbers overall. It's a shame we do not get 3rd party numbers too.

10-11 mill is a pretty big ask for a holiday quarter. That's basically peak Wii numbers. 

Go Kirby, keep at it my pink puff ball.

Tropical Freeze did really well and is nice to see that ARMS continues to be successful.

great numbers all around. 1-2 Switch gonna hit that 3m mark xD

I think Switch might pull that off - though part of me thinks that in order to do that, Nintendo are going to stuff the channel and risk a weaker Q4, which would still end up with them missing the FY target.

A 10 million plus quarter doesn't just hinge on Smash and Pokemon - key as they are - but also on other mass-market, family-friendly titles finding an audience; Labo, Super Mario Party, Just Dance and Star Link might contribute to a very strong quarter, as may bundles and Black Friday sales. Big ask, though. Like I said, the key lesson Nintendo should take away from this is that they need to pace their big titles.

Software sales of key titles this quarter:

Mario Kart 8 DX: 1.13 m
Breath of the Wild: 840k
Super Mario Odyssey: 760k
Splatoon 2: 740k

Very impressive sales for Nintendo's evergreen hits. Breath of the Wild's combined sales are now around 10.82 million.

Almost 20mil!!!! And Labo already over 1mil!!!

Great news!

Looking at how much the software increased from last quarter, we have these numbers:

Super Mario Odyssey: 10.41 -> 11.17 million (+0.76 million) - Currently the 4th best selling 3D Mario game of all time behind Galaxy 1, 3D Land, and 64. If the upwards momentum is true for the software as well, then it should pass 64 (I'm not counting DS version to its total to anyone who was going to bring it up. I'm treating that as a separate game.) and maybe even the 12 million mark with the next update. Afterwards, it should slowly but surely catch 3D Land, and eventually, Galaxy 1, to become the #1 best selling 3D Mario game of all time.

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe: 9.22 -> 10.35 million (+1.13 million) Currently the 4th best selling Mario Kart all time behind Wii, DS, and 7. This is going to be one where we're in for the long haul. I think it will eventually pass 7 and maybe even reach DS. But, Wii is impossible to reach in my opinion. I don't think we'll ever see a Mario Kart game reach those kinds of numbers ever again.

Breath of the Wild: 8.48 -> 9.32 million (+0.84 million) It's' already the best selling Zelda game of all time by far, and it outlegged Mario Odyssey for the 2nd quarter in a row. The sky is the limit for this one. I think 15 million for just the Switch version alone is likely.

Splatoon 2: 6.02 -> 6.76 million (+0.74 million) I think 10 million is all but guaranteed. Let's see how far these kids & squids, Inklings and Octolings, can swim.

1-2 Switch: 2.29 -> 2.45 million (+0.16 million) 3 million, easily. Maybe by the end of this year. I also think it'll reach 4 million eventually, and may even have a shot at 5 million.

ARMS: 1.85 -> 2.01 million (+0.16 million) Another that should have no problem at 3 million. 4 million will be a little more tricky though.

Kirby Star Allies: 1.26 -> 1.89 million (+0.63 million) Should be within the top 10 best selling Kirby games by now. Yet another that should easily reach 3 million and claim the #2 spot in the Kirby series. After that, comes the big question. Will this game finally be the one? The one to top the original?

Xenoblade Chronicles 2: 1.31 -> 1.42 million (+0.11 million) - This one should get to 2 million without much difficulty. YES! Unfortunately, I don't think it'll go much higher than that, and 3 million is looking more out of reach. NO!