Soundwave said:
Asriel said:
Like a lot of us expected, hardware shipments in this quarter were a little on the soft side - it's now 9 months since Switch's last system-seller launched (Super Mario Odyssey). Nintendo's evergreen and mid-tier (DK, Tennis, Kirby) hits have performed solidly, but that's only been enough to keep sales flat over last year. Personally, I find it difficult to see where the upswing is going to come in the July to September period; Nintendo will still be banking on middle-tier titles (Octopath, Xenoblade 2: Torna, Labo #3) and the back catalogue to shift the system. Is that really going to see them land a ~3 million quarter?
I still think Nintendo will get close to 20 million, and might even hit it, but they're going to need an insane second half to the FY. A 10 million plus Q3 is a must - and personally I think that will happen - but Q4 is also going to need to be very strong.
Q1: 1.88m
Q2: 2.5-3m
Q3: 10-11m
Q4: 3.5m
That would put them in the 17.88 to 19.38m range; they'd need to find another ~600k + in shipments to hit the 20 million. Not impossible, if Q2 shows genuine improvement over Q1 - and if Q3 is genuinely insane. This should be a firm lesson to Nintendo, though; they need to work to make sure their system-sellers land more consistently throughout the year. |
10-11 mill is a pretty big ask for a holiday quarter. That's basically peak Wii numbers.
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I think Switch might pull that off - though part of me thinks that in order to do that, Nintendo are going to stuff the channel and risk a weaker Q4, which would still end up with them missing the FY target.
A 10 million plus quarter doesn't just hinge on Smash and Pokemon - key as they are - but also on other mass-market, family-friendly titles finding an audience; Labo, Super Mario Party, Just Dance and Star Link might contribute to a very strong quarter, as may bundles and Black Friday sales. Big ask, though. Like I said, the key lesson Nintendo should take away from this is that they need to pace their big titles.
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