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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - BOLD PREDICTION: Super Smash Bros Ultimate (Currently 17.68mil) Will Sell over 25mil WW Lifetime, Book IT

Slarvax said:
Ah fuck. If tbone says this, might as well be a fact.

yea Tbone had switch outselling ps4 in 2017, it only lost by a small margin of 7 million, fact indeed.  



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p0isonparadise said:
Shiken said:
I do not see it on one platform. It will sell over 10 easy, but 25? That is very hard to do on a single platform release, regardless of momentum.

Selling 20+ million isn't that hard for Nintendo when they have a successful console;

Super Mario Bros. - 40 million (NES)
Mario Kart Wii - 37.1 million (Wii)
Wii Sports Resort - 33 million (Wii)
Pokemon Red/Blue - 31.4 million (Game Boy)
New Super Mario Bros. - 30.8 million (DS)
New Super Mario Bros. Wii - 30.2 million (Wii)
Tetris - 30 million (Game Boy)
Duck Hunt - 28.3 million (NES)
Wii Play - 28 million (Wii)
Pokemon Gold/Silver - 24 million (Game Boy)
Nintendogs - 24 million (DS)
Mario Kart DS - 23.6 million (DS)
Wii Fit - 22.7 million (Wii)
Wii Fit Plus - 21.1 million (Wii)
Super Mario World - 20.6 million (SNES)

Now, do I think Smash will sell 25 million? No. It's a fighting game so it won't have the broad appeal of Mario, Pokemon, Mario Kart, Wii Fit/Sports.

16-18 million seems realistic and probable. 

Very good point, I am gonna say ballpark 15mil.  As you said, it is a fighting game.  It seems the general consensus is you either like it or hate it, but I feel more like it than hate it.



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RaptorChrist said:

A lot depends on how well the game is received. Having every Smash character all in one game sounds fairly ambitious at first, but then I realized that they are probably using the same game engine that Smash 4 was built with, so it's much less work for them than it sounds. The Smash 4 engine is fine, I guess, but will it feel like a unique entry in the series?

I don't think 25 million is completely impossible, but I think it's the best case scenario. I haven't done too much research into it, but if Brawl sold 13 million on the Wii, maybe Smash Ultimate will fall in line with that, but perhaps maybe 15 million if it's received better.

Nintendo already precised it's a new engine, and even the assets are also all either new or reworked.

Seriously, Nintendo makes a 20min video on Smash's extensive changes at E3 - and yet everybody claims it's the same engine, same assets or even just the same game with some more fighters added. It's getting ridiculous at this point



Wright said:

While I don't have any specific WW number myself in mind (I'll just state 9m, to leave a prediction behind), there's no chance that a Smash Bros game sells more than the two best-selling games on Switch (two Mario games, more specifically) combined. Not even Brawl could break the 15m barrier.

Smash 4 did about 13 millions, which its about the same as the last best selling 3D Mario game(Mario Galaxy), so at least regarding past entries, its about as appealing as one of the best selling Nintendo franchises.Then you have to consider that every single long standinbg Nintendo franchise has been selling much ebtter on the Switch.So this 25 millions isnt THAT far fetched in my opinion.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

Nautilus said:

Smash 4 did about 13 millions, which its about the same as the last best selling 3D Mario game(Mario Galaxy), so at least regarding past entries, its about as appealing as one of the best selling Nintendo franchises.Then you have to consider that every single long standinbg Nintendo franchise has been selling much ebtter on the Switch.So this 25 millions isnt THAT far fetched in my opinion.

You're combining two versions that the director feels are separated entries to reach that amount, however. Switch version is only one version, and the last (and only one) time that Smash outsold everything else was in the Gamecube era.

Also since I'm lazy, I'll redirect you to the reply I gave Wyrdness not to type all that again:

Wright said:

I merely base my opinion - one that I've already stated didn't even have a WW number set on mind when I entered this thread - on the fact that Smash has never been the best-selling title of any Nintendo console it has been present in aside from Gamecube, which I feel it's a one-of-a-kind scenario for the franchise, since it has consistently been outsold by Mario Kart ever since (and Mario Kart GC ended up very, very close to Melee too). If Mario Kart creeps out bigger legs and eventually sit over 20m, to put an example, then I'd modify my expectations for WW Smash - lower than 20m, but wouldn't rule out 15m. Basically my MO is just make it sit below Mario Kart by a certain margin, taking in consideration the sales history of both and even the Gamecube's deviancy factored in.

Added reply to StarDoor:

[...] I too worked that out with Odyssey's current numbers, rather than the potential legs, which explains the lowballing. Again, further sales will make me modify the current prediction, that I have no problem with. [...]



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Wright said:
Nautilus said:

Smash 4 did about 13 millions, which its about the same as the last best selling 3D Mario game(Mario Galaxy), so at least regarding past entries, its about as appealing as one of the best selling Nintendo franchises.Then you have to consider that every single long standinbg Nintendo franchise has been selling much ebtter on the Switch.So this 25 millions isnt THAT far fetched in my opinion.

You're combining two versions that the director feels are separated entries to reach that amount, however. Switch version is only one version, and the last (and only one) time that Smash outsold everything else was in the Gamecube era.

Also since I'm lazy, I'll redirect you to the reply I gave Wyrdness not to type all that again:

Wright said:

I merely base my opinion - one that I've already stated didn't even have a WW number set on mind when I entered this thread - on the fact that Smash has never been the best-selling title of any Nintendo console it has been present in aside from Gamecube, which I feel it's a one-of-a-kind scenario for the franchise, since it has consistently been outsold by Mario Kart ever since (and Mario Kart GC ended up very, very close to Melee too). If Mario Kart creeps out bigger legs and eventually sit over 20m, to put an example, then I'd modify my expectations for WW Smash - lower than 20m, but wouldn't rule out 15m. Basically my MO is just make it sit below Mario Kart by a certain margin, taking in consideration the sales history of both and even the Gamecube's deviancy factored in.

Added reply to StarDoor:

[...] I too worked that out with Odyssey's current numbers, rather than the potential legs, which explains the lowballing. Again, further sales will make me modify the current prediction, that I have no problem with. [...]

I agree with you combining 2 versions isn't right, might was well combine mario 64, and mario krt 8. if the game is releasing on one console then the best comparison would be the wii version.



quickrick said:

I agree with you combining 2 versions isn't right, might was well combine mario 64, and mario krt 8. if the game is releasing on one console then the best comparison would be the wii version.

I can understand people combining them, since Smash Bros for 3DS and Smash Bros for WiiU often fall under the same umbrella as Smash Bros 4. I just don't think that has to strictly work in favor of Switch despite its hybrid nature.



Wright said:
quickrick said:

I agree with you combining 2 versions isn't right, might was well combine mario 64, and mario krt 8. if the game is releasing on one console then the best comparison would be the wii version.

I can understand people combining them, since Smash Bros for 3DS and Smash Bros for WiiU often fall under the same umbrella as Smash Bros 4. I just don't think that has to strictly work in favor of Switch despite its hybrid nature.

I can see 3-4 million double dipping easy, to have a version on the go, and to have the significantly superior version  at home. Don't get how it works in switches favor.  



Wright said:
Nautilus said:

Smash 4 did about 13 millions, which its about the same as the last best selling 3D Mario game(Mario Galaxy), so at least regarding past entries, its about as appealing as one of the best selling Nintendo franchises.Then you have to consider that every single long standinbg Nintendo franchise has been selling much ebtter on the Switch.So this 25 millions isnt THAT far fetched in my opinion.

You're combining two versions that the director feels are separated entries to reach that amount, however. Switch version is only one version, and the last (and only one) time that Smash outsold everything else was in the Gamecube era.

Also since I'm lazy, I'll redirect you to the reply I gave Wyrdness not to type all that again:

Wright said:

I merely base my opinion - one that I've already stated didn't even have a WW number set on mind when I entered this thread - on the fact that Smash has never been the best-selling title of any Nintendo console it has been present in aside from Gamecube, which I feel it's a one-of-a-kind scenario for the franchise, since it has consistently been outsold by Mario Kart ever since (and Mario Kart GC ended up very, very close to Melee too). If Mario Kart creeps out bigger legs and eventually sit over 20m, to put an example, then I'd modify my expectations for WW Smash - lower than 20m, but wouldn't rule out 15m. Basically my MO is just make it sit below Mario Kart by a certain margin, taking in consideration the sales history of both and even the Gamecube's deviancy factored in.

Added reply to StarDoor:

[...] I too worked that out with Odyssey's current numbers, rather than the potential legs, which explains the lowballing. Again, further sales will make me modify the current prediction, that I have no problem with. [...]

Sakurai sees them as separate entries because they were two projects to him(as a developer).Dosent change that the very few differences betwenn them makes them more like different versions of the same game, like it was a multiplatform game, rather than separate games.Given that, Smash 4 sold around 13 million units, about the same as the big sellers Nintendo had in the past.So the potential is there.

And while its fine that you think like that, its a rather simplistic way to view things Wright.Using past records and data to try to understand future events is fine and even necessary, but lowballing that the Switch is breaking every kinds of records, be them hardware related or software related, is extremely vital and makes predictions based on past entry sales somewhat unreliable.The Switch effect, as Ill call it just for making things easier, is exponentially increasing the sales of existing franchises.BOTW is already the best selling Zelda entry to date.Oddyssey will be definelly.XC2, as of 31th March, has sold 30% more than any of the other entries AND is the best selling Xeno game.And Mario Kart is selling better than the original entry by far, and there are certainly people like me, in a significant number, that havent bought the game simply because we have already bought the original game(which skews your argument too).And Im not even mentioning the high interest in software in general in the Switch(Third parties sales and stuff)

Honestly, I wouldnt even be surprised if Smash 5 managed to sell 10 millions(shipped  digital) in 1 month.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

Are you the one that got the other crazy "BOLD PREDICTIONS" correct?

If you are, then I'm tempted to believe this. If not, I would say half that is more likely.