BOLD PREDICTION: Super Smash Bros Ultimate (Currently 17.68mil) Will Sell over 25mil WW Lifetime, Book IT

[Nautilus]

Wright said:

Nautilus said:

Smash 4 did about 13 millions, which its about the same as the last best selling 3D Mario game(Mario Galaxy), so at least regarding past entries, its about as appealing as one of the best selling Nintendo franchises.Then you have to consider that every single long standinbg Nintendo franchise has been selling much ebtter on the Switch.So this 25 millions isnt THAT far fetched in my opinion.

You're combining two versions that the director feels are separated entries to reach that amount, however. Switch version is only one version, and the last (and only one) time that Smash outsold everything else was in the Gamecube era.

Also since I'm lazy, I'll redirect you to the reply I gave Wyrdness not to type all that again:

Wright said:

I merely base my opinion - one that I've already stated didn't even have a WW number set on mind when I entered this thread - on the fact that Smash has never been the best-selling title of any Nintendo console it has been present in aside from Gamecube, which I feel it's a one-of-a-kind scenario for the franchise, since it has consistently been outsold by Mario Kart ever since (and Mario Kart GC ended up very, very close to Melee too). If Mario Kart creeps out bigger legs and eventually sit over 20m, to put an example, then I'd modify my expectations for WW Smash - lower than 20m, but wouldn't rule out 15m. Basically my MO is just make it sit below Mario Kart by a certain margin, taking in consideration the sales history of both and even the Gamecube's deviancy factored in.

Added reply to StarDoor:

[...] I too worked that out with Odyssey's current numbers, rather than the potential legs, which explains the lowballing. Again, further sales will make me modify the current prediction, that I have no problem with. [...]

Sakurai sees them as separate entries because they were two projects to him(as a developer).Dosent change that the very few differences betwenn them makes them more like different versions of the same game, like it was a multiplatform game, rather than separate games.Given that, Smash 4 sold around 13 million units, about the same as the big sellers Nintendo had in the past.So the potential is there.

And while its fine that you think like that, its a rather simplistic way to view things Wright.Using past records and data to try to understand future events is fine and even necessary, but lowballing that the Switch is breaking every kinds of records, be them hardware related or software related, is extremely vital and makes predictions based on past entry sales somewhat unreliable.The Switch effect, as Ill call it just for making things easier, is exponentially increasing the sales of existing franchises.BOTW is already the best selling Zelda entry to date.Oddyssey will be definelly.XC2, as of 31th March, has sold 30% more than any of the other entries AND is the best selling Xeno game.And Mario Kart is selling better than the original entry by far, and there are certainly people like me, in a significant number, that havent bought the game simply because we have already bought the original game(which skews your argument too).And Im not even mentioning the high interest in software in general in the Switch(Third parties sales and stuff)

Honestly, I wouldnt even be surprised if Smash 5 managed to sell 10 millions(shipped  digital) in 1 month.