Smash 4 has sold 15m combined going by Nintendo's own numbers.

A lot depends on how well the game is received. Having every Smash character all in one game sounds fairly ambitious at first, but then I realized that they are probably using the same game engine that Smash 4 was built with, so it's much less work for them than it sounds. The Smash 4 engine is fine, I guess, but will it feel like a unique entry in the series?

I don't think 25 million is completely impossible, but I think it's the best case scenario. I haven't done too much research into it, but if Brawl sold 13 million on the Wii, maybe Smash Ultimate will fall in line with that, but perhaps maybe 15 million if it's received better.

It's not using Smash 4's engine the game is built from the ground up even the engine.

I know, but knowing Sakurai consider Smash 3DS and Smash WiiU two separated entries, as opposed to the same game in two different versions, made me not look at it that way; goes without saying that Ultimate only has one version to rely on, too. Plus, 15m would make Smash Ultimate sit as the best-selling Switch game (looking at today's numbers, dunno by the time it releases), which I don't see happening either.

He used to not consider Smash a fighting game but has changed his tune in recent years so I don't put much stock into what he considers as he's prone to change his mind later on. Smash could easily become the best selling Switch title I don't see how that is unlikely given the system's attach rate, 15m is certain at this point it's just a question of how fast it gets there, Ultimate has one version for a unified userbase.

Okay, but why are you comparing Smash's speculative lifetime sales to the 5-month sales of Odyssey? 1.37M copies were shipped in Q1 2018. Do you not think it can sell another 4.59M for the rest of the Switch's lifecycle? Mario Kart is sitting at 9.22M and shipped 1.89M in Q1, so it could easily pass 15M as well. Not to mention how every new Pokemon generation has sold more than 15M, and the next one is coming to Switch in 2019.

The bottom line is that Smash would have to sell a lot more than 15M to become Switch's best-selling game.

Also, your prediction of 9M is crazy. Smash 4 sold more than that on 3DS alone. Switch is performing better than 3DS in both hardware and software sales, and Ultimate will not have any of its sales stolen by a different version of the game.

My prediction is around 14-15m LTD.
But who knows ¯_(ツ)_/¯

Ah fuck. If tbone says this, might as well be a fact.

I've yet to see him backtrack on the matter of Smash Bros for 3DS and Smash Bros for WiiU, however. Since all people are prone to change their mind, I'd rather wait until he actually does than to work with that basis, especially since the Smashpedia and the Wikipedia still reflect Sakurai's stance on their catalogation.

I merely base my opinion - one that I've already stated didn't even have a WW number set on mind when I entered this thread - on the fact that Smash has never been the best-selling title of any Nintendo console it has been present in aside from Gamecube, which I feel it's a one-of-a-kind scenario for the franchise, since it has consistently been outsold by Mario Kart ever since (and Mario Kart GC ended up very, very close to Melee too). If Mario Kart creeps out bigger legs and eventually sit over 20m, to put an example, then I'd modify my expectations for WW Smash - lower than 20m, but wouldn't rule out 15m. Basically my MO is just make it sit below Mario Kart by a certain margin, taking in consideration the sales history of both and even the Gamecube's deviancy factored in.

Basically what I told Wyrdness: I didn't have any specific prediction set for Smash when I entered this thread, and I make it in regards to the total sales of Mario Kart at the moment (like when I noted "looking at today's numbers"). If Mario Karts keeps selling and eventually reaches, to put it as an example, 20m, then I wouldn't have any issue modifying my current prediction and make 15m for Smash, as I work its numbers in tandem with MK's.

I personally don't think Smash can outsell Odyssey either, though there's precedent of the franchise outselling 3D marios in more than once instance. I too worked that out with Odyssey's current numbers, rather than the potential legs, which explains the lowballing. Again, further sales will make me modify the current prediction, that I have no problem with.

My 9m prediction probably feels as crazy to you as Tbone's 25m prediction feels to me, so I guess we are experiencing a similar feeling, if from different posters.