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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - BOLD PREDICTION: Super Smash Bros Ultimate (Currently 17.68mil) Will Sell over 25mil WW Lifetime, Book IT

PotentHerbs on 13 October 2019

I predicted less than 20 Million. Now its looking like Smash has a good chance to hit that mark.

I'd say anywhere from 18 - 22 Million for lifetime sales.



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tbone51 on 13 October 2019
HylianSwordsman said:
Oh yeah, this won't be the last time this thread gets necrobumped I bet. The lowballers are gonna eat so much crow for this, and good Lord, if it actually makes 25 million, it'll be Crow Thanksgiving up in this bitch. I love a good Tbone prediction thread. Welcome back dude!

Thanks! Yeah look at all the lowballing predictions lol 😆



tbone51 on 13 October 2019

Just FYI if SSBU has slightly less BotW legs next year itll look something like this....

SSBU

2018: 12.08mil
2019: 1730k + 920k + 800k + 1350k (16.88mil)
2020: 825k + 625k + 725k + 1125k (20.21mil)
2021: 500k + 450k + 500k + 950k (22.61mil)
2022: 250k + 200k + 225k + 475k (23.86mil)
2023.....end of time: 500k (24mil+) lol



Ultrashroomz on 02 November 2019

VGChartz hates Smash for some reason (and probably thought it was a Smash 4 port).



"Just for comparison Uncharted 4 was 20x bigger than Splatoon 2. This shows the huge difference between Sony's first-party games and Nintendo's first-party games."

tbone51 on 02 November 2019
mZuzek said:
The amount of "10-12m at best" predictions here is truly staggering.

If smash were to stop at lets say 23mil, i bet a few of those 10m-12m prediction users would still have a way to downplay this thread lol



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Bofferbrauer2 on 02 November 2019
mZuzek said:
The amount of "10-12m at best" predictions here is truly staggering.

Oh yeah, they truly are. Time to put up a wall of shame:

quickrick said:
This will be a good thread to get a few laughs in the future.

You don't know how much truth you spoke there... just probably not the kind you expected

TheBird said:
An individual title has never sold more than 13 million, this series isn't as popular or as good as you think it is. Now if you said Super Mario Bros and that game actually existed, I'd be like "Fuckin eh he's right".

Try harder next time

FarleyMcFirefly said:
I'm thinking 15 million tops. Brawl did what, 13 million on a 100 million install base?

TranceformerFX said:
25 Million units? Lol... That's ridiculous dude. Call of Duty barely reaches those numbers now, and that's multi-platform.

I don't know of a SINGLE, platform exclusive fighting game that has reached that kind of milestone.

You're grossly exaggerating Super Smash's brand potential. It'll sell (probably) 10 - 12 million units lifetime.

Wright said:

While I don't have any specific WW number myself in mind (I'll just state 9m, to leave a prediction behind), there's no chance that a Smash Bros game sells more than the two best-selling games on Switch (two Mario games, more specifically) combined. Not even Brawl could break the 15m barrier.

Beaten at lunch month, ouch!

Pavolink said:
My prediction is around 14-15m LTD.
But who knows ¯_(ツ)_/¯

Podings said:
Smash was never as accessible as Mario Kart.

I have a hard time seeing it break 15 million. But I'd love to be surprised. Digital might catch me off guard.

Harkins1721 said:
12 million tops.

zorg1000 said:
Doubt it, 15m+ seems plausible.

Et tu, Brute? Didn't expect you to not believe in TBone

OTBWY said:

I think it can make the 15 million mark. That's my boldest prediction. 

Mr_No said:
It will probably sell around 10 to 12 million units. Probably even slightly less.

Well Mister, no! Unless you meant for launch...

PwerlvlAmy said:
im gonna say 15m

And that's just from the first 100 posts...

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 02 November 2019

The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

LGBTDBZBBQ on 02 November 2019

This thread is gold.



Agente42 on 02 November 2019
LGBTDBZBBQ said:
This thread is gold.

Platinium



Agente42 on 02 November 2019
Wright said:
Nautilus said:

Sure.Just make sure you dont regret later, mu boy!

Wanna bet over what?

One week of avatar/signature control.

You win if Smash reaches/surpasses 20m LT.

I win if Smash's sales fails to meet the above criteria.

It's a draw if it ends somewhere near (like above 18.5m), because I feel like either bet was justified in that case.

How's that?

waiting for the bet resolution



Agente42 on 02 November 2019
Agente42 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:
A lot of people are underestimating Smash sales, because they are severely underestimating Switch sales. The biggest reason that tbone51 can make "ridiculous" prediction threads and be right is because the market is very enthusiastic for the Switch. What tbone51 knows is that the Switch is going to be much more successful than the average person is guessing. So he can keep making these prediction threads, and then he'll keep making people eat crow until they realize that several unprecedented predictions for software mean tremendous sales for hardware.

Average you mean hardcore player. The Switch had a strong first year, so the three next year can be strong thanks to the first year. The first year of a consoles is vital to its healthy survival in its life cycle. However, the console can not be abandoned like the Wii in five years, Nintendo needs to maintain steadly support until after the successor hits the market.

My prediction : 14.5-21 M LTD with digital sales

Eat crow

my wrong prediction