SpokenTruth said:
It has a 2.5:1 attachment ratio. The only way for it to not hit 25 million is for the Switch to sell less than ~63 million units. |
The attach ratio is going to take a hit for all games when Switch Lite comes into play as it will be bought largely by the same people who already have a switch and these games.
SpokenTruth said:
The hell? The Switch Lite is largely going to be bought by people that already own an original Switch? People that already own a portable and home console with detachable Joycons are going to buy a portable only console without detachable Joycons? And most of the Lite sales will come from these people? Seriously? |
Yes. It’s always the case with revisions.
That milestone is attainable 
SpokenTruth said:
You said 'largely'. That implies a majority of new Switch Lite sales will be OG Switch owners. Further, most revisions increase functionality, not reduce it. Was the 2DS largely purchased by current 3DS owners? No. Functionally reductive revisions are 'largely' purchased by new owners as there is little benefit for current owners to buy again. |
Think of all the people who broke and lost their switch and will pick up another one. That happens with handhelds all the time. There’s a reason why the top 15 platforms by attach rate are all home consoles and then you finally get the DS with its measly 5 attach rate. That reason is that same people buy handhelds multiple times, usually with each revision as it means a price reduction.
SpokenTruth said:
It's like you didn't even read what I wrote at all. So let's go over it. 1). Handhelds have a lower attach rate because they are often bought for individuals rather than a whole house like home consoles are. 2). I just told you that revisions tend to add functionality. PS4 Pro, DS Lite, etc... Very few revisions reduce functionality (2DS). Switch Lite is a functionally reductive revision. Current owners are not the big sales draw. Do you own a Switch? Are you going to replace it with a Switch Lite? I'm not. Why would I? 3). Broken and lost consoles. That's your argument? I guess these people (very tiny fragment of ownership) never had a choice to buy a new Switch until now, huh? Guess they ALL already owned Smash Bros Ultimate, huh? |
I’ve seen a ton of people who’d been saying they wanted a lighter handheld only version over the last couple years. And handhelds are like phones, you have them on you, they drop they break they get left somewhere on a bus or a plane, etc. that shit happens all the time. You have no idea what you’re talking about and you’ll see the attach rate for NS come to a crawl. On the other hand they’ve also released pretty much all their big selling IPs on Switch already with Animal Crossing the only one left to go so maybe it’ll be the hardware sales that will come to a crawl instead.
Sarkar said:
I’ve seen a ton of people who’d been saying they wanted a lighter handheld only version over the last couple years. And handhelds are like phones, you have them on you, they drop they break they get left somewhere on a bus or a plane, etc. that shit happens all the time. You have no idea what you’re talking about and you’ll see the attach rate for NS come to a crawl. On the other hand they’ve also released pretty much all their big selling IPs on Switch already with Animal Crossing the only one left to go so maybe it’ll be the hardware sales that will come to a crawl instead. |
So Switch sales will FINALLY fall of a cliff after the release of Animal Crossing, right?! Right? ...Right...?
Most of the users that made prediction below 15m have avoided this thread without eating the crows
I would also go for something like 20 M but this Christmas performance would be crucial to see ! lets hope it gets 25M at least it would mean 10 M more than second highest selling ssb which its amazing
SpokenTruth said:
It has a 2.5:1 attachment ratio. The only way for it to not hit 25 million is for the Switch to sell less than ~63 million units. |
After it's first quarter the attachment ratio was 2.67:1. It will continue to go down. Holiday shipments this year should give a good indication if I'm right or wrong though.
Regardless, 25m is still going to be a better prediction then whatever I said and presumably 99% of people in this thread.
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