Its at 14,73m shipped now right? (going by nintendos IR sales data)

It might hit 20m tbh....... Im still skeptical of it doing 25m.

I still havent done the research on botw/mk8d quarters but i think smash is definetly hitting 20mil its almost guaranteed. With last quarter and this quarter we will see a better picture.

Example...

900k+ - 14.73mil (end of June)

*570k - 15.30mil (end of Sept)

*1.2mil 16.5mil (end of dec)

Now with at least 1 more year of dlc...

If the next 3 years smash sells 350k per quarter and lets say 750k in holiday quarter with an extra 500k for the rest of its life after that, itll be around 22.5mil

I forgot my original prediction, so I'm posting it here.  I may end up eating crow on my attach rate prediction.  I won't know for a few years though.  So far Ultimate has been selling stronger than I thought it would.  People who weren't into Smash before are now seeing this as a "must own" title.

If what you are saying is true (it isnt) the actual PS4 install base is way below 100 million and the Xbox One is even lower. Oh, and the PS3 real install base is probably 35 million or less.

FY 2019/2020 (missing Q1)

BotW. Q1? - 960k - 1400k - 1090k - Q1= 840k

MK8 1130k - 1360k - 3850k - 1670k - Q1= 1200k

SMO. Q1? - 1000k - 1590k - 680k - Q1= 500k

Spla2. Q1? - 710k - 800k - 430k - Q1= 320k

SSBU. NA - N/A - 1208k - 1730k - Q1=920k

Im sorry i did it unorganized.... But was trying to see how ssbu legs can be. BotW and MK8D show how crazy evergreen legs can be. That said if ssbu has even worse legs than mk8d it can still cross 25mil

I would love to see that but it will be close. The second season pass will help!

lol

No game is going to have legs like MK8 D, but Smash Bros Ultimate doesn't need to have legs like that.  I think BotW is a better milestone.  BotW still has very strong legs even though it released over two years ago.  Smash Bros basically need legs like that or maybe just a little stronger.  The main thing is that it needs to show that it is going to keep selling strong even years later.

Right now my gut is that Smash is going to keep selling like that.  Right now when people get a Switch, the biggest chunk of people see Mario Kart as that "must own" game, because basically everyone likes Mario Kart.  After that I think the people who prefer single player games see Zelda as the next "must own", while people who prefer local multiplayer see Smash Bros as "must own".  And I think this mentality is going to keep up throughout the Switch's lifetime.  Other games may be popular, but so far no other game will have legs like these 3.  (Pokemon might end up being a 4th game like this though, we'll have to wait and see.)

Oh yeah, this won't be the last time this thread gets necrobumped I bet. The lowballers are gonna eat so much crow for this, and good Lord, if it actually makes 25 million, it'll be Crow Thanksgiving up in this bitch. I love a good Tbone prediction thread. Welcome back dude!