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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan sales (Week 26) Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - June 25 - July 1, 2018

Eagle367 said:
At this rate switch will have 75% of all sales each week in a few months. PS4 is dropping while switch is rising each week. By next year we might even enter a point where the market share is 90%+ for the switch

Well lets look at the averages for the quarter

NSW-~40k

PS4-~20k

3DS/Vita/XBO-~10k

Pokemon+Smash this holiday will probably create some strong momentum going into 2019 plus Switch could get its first price cut or revision next year. Overall it should hold an even higher average, 50-60k perhaps?

PS4 doesnt have much for this year to create momentum but next January has Kingdom Hearts+Resident Evil 2 which should give a solid boost but probably not as big as Monster Hunter did this year, spring baseline will probably go closer to ~15k.

3DS/Vita/XBO are dead/dying, software support is drying up and will likely be gone by this time next year, combined the three will probably struggle to sell 5k on a weekly basis.

 

Its possible we could be looking at Switch selling 50k+ each week next spring while PS4/3DS/Vita/XBO do sub-20k.



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animegaming said:
outlawauron said:

I'll ask you since the guy on Twitter completely ignores this question. Do you have a source for that?

Apparently this guy on ResetERA name AniHawk is a former NISA employee that still has some contacts there.

https://www.resetera.com/threads/media-create-sales-week-25-2018-jun-18-jun-24.51842/page-12#post-9978910

Thanks for the source. He's a pretty trustworthy guy, but I do wish he'd post numbers. From his later conversation where he gave some Ys sales, it looks like we're talking about peanuts though. Happy Switch version had a good FW in West. Hopefully it's well received and it's able to pass up LT sales too.

NISA has brought such an interesting paradigm to niche JRPGs. Almost everything they've brought has done very well on Switch in the West while its JP release completely flops.



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zorg1000 said:
Eagle367 said:
At this rate switch will have 75% of all sales each week in a few months. PS4 is dropping while switch is rising each week. By next year we might even enter a point where the market share is 90%+ for the switch

Well lets look at the averages for the quarter

NSW-~40k

PS4-~20k

3DS/Vita/XBO-~10k

Pokemon+Smash this holiday will probably create some strong momentum going into 2019 plus Switch could get its first price cut or revision next year. Overall it should hold an even higher average, 50-60k perhaps?

PS4 doesnt have much for this year to create momentum but next January has Kingdom Hearts+Resident Evil 2 which should give a solid boost but probably not as big as Monster Hunter did this year, spring baseline will probably go closer to ~15k.

3DS/Vita/XBO are dead/dying, software support is drying up and will likely be gone by this time next year, combined the three will probably struggle to sell 5k on a weekly basis.

 

Its possible we could be looking at Switch selling 50k+ each week next spring while PS4/3DS/Vita/XBO do sub-20k.

 

Medisti said:
Eagle367 said:
At this rate switch will have 75% of all sales each week in a few months. PS4 is dropping while switch is rising each week. By next year we might even enter a point where the market share is 90%+ for the switch

That's a bit optimistic. 75% is possible, with Pokemon and Smash coming, but I don't know if 90% will happen unless the PS4 has basically nothing for Japanese audience for the first half of next year. There'll certainly be a re-release of Monster Hunter World with new content same as every time.

I'm talking about 75 consistently while 90+ is more like once in a blue moon or even just once

Last edited by Eagle367 - on 04 July 2018

Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

Eagle367 said:
zorg1000 said:

Well lets look at the averages for the quarter

NSW-~40k

PS4-~20k

3DS/Vita/XBO-~10k

Pokemon+Smash this holiday will probably create some strong momentum going into 2019 plus Switch could get its first price cut or revision next year. Overall it should hold an even higher average, 50-60k perhaps?

PS4 doesnt have much for this year to create momentum but next January has Kingdom Hearts+Resident Evil 2 which should give a solid boost but probably not as big as Monster Hunter did this year, spring baseline will probably go closer to ~15k.

3DS/Vita/XBO are dead/dying, software support is drying up and will likely be gone by this time next year, combined the three will probably struggle to sell 5k on a weekly basis.

 

Its possible we could be looking at Switch selling 50k+ each week next spring while PS4/3DS/Vita/XBO do sub-20k.

 

Medisti said:

That's a bit optimistic. 75% is possible, with Pokemon and Smash coming, but I don't know if 90% will happen unless the PS4 has basically nothing for Japanese audience for the first half of next year. There'll certainly be a re-release of Monster Hunter World with new content same as every time.

I'm talking about 75 consistently while 90+ is more like once in a blue moon or even just once

I dont think 75% markershare on a typical week is out of the question for next year. This quarter it had something like 55-60% so assuming that Switch sales are better next year while while PS4/3DS/Vita/XBO all decrease than it should be doable.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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Mnementh said:
nero said:

 Thanks. You're right, I wanted to throw a baseline but didn't know how to make it. If it's low-end sales then I can do that. Will update it the graph as average. So hoy do you exactly get baseline?

Well, baseline is not a scientific term, it is something to gauge momentum and predict the coming weeks. Basically it is: what would the console sell wihtout sales, holidays and new games. But that is obviously problematic, because without these the console would stop selling altogether. Your graph is actually helpful. You see the monstrous Monster Hunter peak for PS4, the Golden week peak for both consoles and some other peaks that probably match with some game release if we would look for it. The other weeks are more 'normal' weeks.

If you look for some way to make a formula which calculates it always the same way, I may suggest the following: You already calculated the average. We can easily say that all above average is extraordinary and created by holidays, sales or game releases. So take the below average weeks and make an average for them. Or even better - replace the average in both cases with the median, if your tool supports it. Median is more stable against a few extreme values (like the Monster Hunter peak). So the median of all weeks below the overall median. But that's just my personal suggestion.

Thanks for your insight. Just did some calculation and these values might be the baseline of both consoles:

SW: 38126

PS4: 22627

If that would be correct, then I'll update the chart



well...Again lol, IF you consider the fiscal year which starts on April 1st for both Nintendo and SONY, one is significantly destroying the other for the 2018 fiscal year.



Great hold for Mario Tennis. Ys 8 on Switch flopped. KH collection still in the top 20 :D
Switch hardware sales are great while PS4 is flop.



Switch continues to canabalize PS4 sales in Japan.



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outlawauron said:
animegaming said:

Apparently this guy on ResetERA name AniHawk is a former NISA employee that still has some contacts there.

https://www.resetera.com/threads/media-create-sales-week-25-2018-jun-18-jun-24.51842/page-12#post-9978910

Thanks for the source. He's a pretty trustworthy guy, but I do wish he'd post numbers. From his later conversation where he gave some Ys sales, it looks like we're talking about peanuts though. Happy Switch version had a good FW in West. Hopefully it's well received and it's able to pass up LT sales too.

NISA has brought such an interesting paradigm to niche JRPGs. Almost everything they've brought has done very well on Switch in the West while its JP release completely flops.

Yeah... Its only ahead of PS4 and PSV individually and only launch aligned in the west, of which both the PS4 and PSV versions launched at the exact same time so it would be no surprise that the audience was divided. Its definitely not blowing sales out of the water, but it is a good indicator for falcom on a potential audience. I imagine western sales are still quite poor compared to Japan sales for PS4, so it is unlikely that they... switch their main platform. But in the west Switch might be the bigger audience, if sales hold strong.

Lastly I am pretty sure NIS or NISA would have nothing to do with Ys VIII in Japan. Unless that was just a side comment.