Sorry but decline already started with GT5 as GT5 was the first title of past gen and should have done as much or even better as GT3 did on PS2. There is no point in denying that. Also the PS2 userbase was way lower than the PS3 one when GT3 was released in early 2001 vs. GT5 in late 2010. Timing of a release within a console lifecycle is essential in these kind of analysis. Would GT5 been released in the beggining of 2007 and GT6 in 2010/11, sales would have been completely different.

That said, let's not forget the decline in the genre itself. Racing simulator is not as hyped as it was 15 years ago.

Sony has no problem realizing that, God of War and Detroit only just came out.

GT became stale though and something had to change. Everyone keeps saying GT7 could have sold much more, yet could it really. Give GT6 the 4K treatment, add more cars, a few new tracks, would it really have sold that much more? Kids are more interested in collecting skins than cars nowadays. Racing games aren't cool anymore, there are plenty other things around with realistic looking graphics.

PD also miscalculated what most people want to do in a car game which is play bumper cars. The whole sport section is geared to driving clean, which is a niche of a niche. Of the 6% people that use sport mode, less than 10% manage to keep it clean often enough to get the highest safety rating, which still doesn't show all that great sportmanship. So about 0.6% of the user base is actually attempting to use the game as PD intended :/

I wonder of OnRush is selling. That seems more geared to the play style of the majority. It rolled into 34th place first week in the UK...

I wish people would stop using number players = copies sold.

MK8 for example sold over 9 million copies you can bet the numbers of players would double, triple that at the very least since the switch can have 8 accounts. Plus Mario is usually bought by families. One copy can be played by the parents, the kids, the cousins....etc

Number of players = your game flopped but let just show them inflated numbers to make it look better.

Right, and I am sure one sold copy of MK would generate at least 10 different players since you often play during party with your friends and family. Every MK game would have at least 100M players if we were to count number of players.

Games (especially universally acclaimed games) releasing early in a console's life benefit from it in the long run because of the relatively weak competition and small selection of games early on. See Knack 1 vs Knack 2, Resistance 1 vs sequels, OoT vs Majora's Mask, Twilight Princess vs Skyward Sword, etc. Zelda Breath of the Wild wouldn't have been the sales phenomenon it is now if it were released at a time where Switch's game library is big, would have still sold ganbsusters but fallen maybe 2 or 3 million copies short of the current projection. Same applies to Super Mario 64 which went on to sell a whopping 12 million on N64's modest install base. The launch/early-release effect is an undeniable advantage. GT3 enjoyed that benefit, GT5 did not.


GT5 should have been expected to sell less than GT3 but more than GT4, and that's exactly where it landed. Again, counting the $60 Prologue, GT5's sales are actually head and shoulders above GT4's; it's 17.29M vs 13.6M as of October 2015.

If we speak strictly sales numbers, and disregard GT4/Prologues and everything in between, then yes of course GT5 declined (GT3's 14.89M vs GT5's 11.94M)

The thing is GT5 did not sell much more than GT4 and there is no point in counting the Prologue titles unless you want to spin the numbers in favor of GT5, thus why I consider the decline started somewhere between GT4 and GT5.

I agree with you in spirit.  But, Mario Kart does meet the definition of racing. 

Yes there actually is a point to that. It shows that interests in GT5 were a lot higher than 4 despite PS3's smaller install base and the growing Xbox and Forza competition. More context helps putting things into perspective. GT5's decline is much more artifical than Mario Kart post Wii.

not surprised GT fell down. the IP was almost killed off because of the whole prologue GT5 and taking forever to release the game. kind of became irrelevant.

they have great relationship with supercar makers and racing in general. but they needed to stay relevant within consumers.

Forza Horizon deserve much bigger sales than they have, such an amazing series.