So, how much do you expect Switch being SOLD to consumers by the end of the year then? (i mean end of 2018, not FY). What do you expect VGC will show when they have all 2018 data, even after adjustements if needed?

This. I completely agree and i've been saying that for months. The moment Nintendo made an hybrid console it was obvious Nintendo abandoned the race for "unit sales" and instead entered the race for "profit sales" and this became more obvious after Nintendo announced their own Online paid service. That's why i not expecting Switch reaching Wii sales lifetime but still being the most succesful Nintendo ever thanks to 1st party sales and subcriptions for Online.

As for the rest. 18M+ is definitively possible, and it will be an enormous success because like you said, it will put ahead of PS4 in the same time period in shipment sales.

I still think Switch will fight to reach 17M shipped though.

I can agree for the 11.5M in the 3rd quarter being probably a miss, but 3.5M in the last quarter doesn't seem out of reach at all to me. Switch shipped about 3M last year in that quarter, with some increased momentum through Smash & Pokemon plus some releases (NSMBUDx among others, and I expect Yoshi to release in March to keep it up), 3.5M doesn't seem out of reach at all to me for the 4th quarter.

The only reason is because he already stated how much Switch is going to ship in Q3 and to know both VGC and official Q3 from Nintendo numbers will only have to wait a few days instead of months, that's all.

If Switch is going to ship 11'5M in Q3 that will put Switch around 34'5M. Switch is according to VGC at 26'1M sold to consumers with 3 weeks left for the year. How much units are going to be on shelves then according to him??, is Switchi suddenly going to sell 2M per week the rest of the year or what?, are VGC numbers wrong then??

It will be super close, but it doesn't matter much to me anymore. Nintendo has proved that the Switch is a success and will continue being a success, 20 million or not

Well, that won't make sense to you then, for me it makes all the sense of the world. I already said in other thread what i expect from Switch. No Nintendo console (handheld or home console) has mantained the sales of their 2nd or 3rd years or sales. Switch has not proved anything different wll happen. 17M FY2018, 17-18M FY 2019, 12-13M FY2020, 10M FY 2021, 8M FY2022......, so around 82-84M shipped at most by then. By end of 2022, Switch will have its succesor already announced and in 2023 Switch will drop a lot. So around 86-87M shipped at most lifetime.

I know some people won't agree with me, and that's  completely fine, but this is my honest prediction.

This is what I said two months ago - I'll stand by this. There's a good chance of the third quarter coming in around 10 million and I see 3 to 3.5 million as the range for the fourth quarter. Much as I'd like to see 4 million in Q4, I'm not sure Switch's baseline is going to be high enough for that without either a price cut or a hardware revision (especially to lift sales in Japan, where it's selling strongly for a home console but behind the sales curve of the more successful portable systems like 3DS and DS). 

It's very clear that first quarter has cost them in terms of hardware sales, but given they'll likely be exceeding their software target and will likely be within 10% of their hardware target, I don't think they'll be concerned. If they'd kept to a 3 million (or so) pace in the first quarter, we'd likely be looking at Switch coming in somewhere around 19.2 to 19.7 for the fiscal year, perhaps even bang on 20 million. Labo, like Arms and 1-2 Switch, hasn't caught on the way Nintendo's more conventional first party offerings has - but the tremendous success of Smash Bros and continuing success of the evergreen cohort bodes very well for Luigi's Mansion 3, Animal Crossing and Pokemon generation 8, and for Nintendo's next financial year.

It'll be interesting to see what software Nintendo offer after 2019. The only major sellers waiting in the wings I can think of would be Super Mario Maker and perhaps a Switch version of Nintendogs, but I'd guess Nintendo will have something less conventional planned, too (new IP). Metroid Prime 4 and Bayonetta 3 are candidates for 2020 (as well as 2019), but they won't be major sales drivers.

What doesn't make sense? Did DS sold in 2010, 2011 or 2012 as much as in 2007, 2008 and 2009???, I'm missing something?

Well, point for you, with DS you were right. But because just 1 of 11 Nintendo consoles had better sales in year 4-5, even having a good year 6 we should now expect Switch to be the same?? What Switch has made to think it will replicate DS success? Why not compare it to Wii or 3DS?? (which in my opinion, its pace is far more similar). What happened to the shipments of those consoles? (don't need to put the numbers, don't worry, i suppose both know the numbers).