So you have them doing 18.5 million and think people are crazy for thinking they will come close to 20m?

Eh....no?. If my maths are correct, i'm expecting 9'5M-10M + 2'5-3M for Q3+Q4....that's 12-13M Q3+Q4 so 17-18M for the FY2018. I think 18M+ is possible, i think 19M is not possibe, i think anything 20M or more is ...i think i used the word "nuts".

Your Americas numbers dont make sense though. You have 4.25-4.5 million when actual sell through will be that much.

USA Oct+Nov was over 1.6 million, insiders are saying 2-2.5m for Dec putting USA at 3.6-4.1m. Canada is about 10% of USA so 4-4.5 million for USA+Canada. Latin America will be another couple hundred thousand so 4.2-4.7 million sell through for Americas meaning shipments would need to be closer to 4.5-5 million for shipments.

If your Americas numbers are low than your Other is likely low as well since it has remained consistently 80-90% of Americas.

10 million is the minimum this quarter, not the maximum and Q4 doing the same or worse as last year doesn't make much sense either when looking at all the momentum it has at the moment.

If 10M is the minimum and let's say, 11M is the best option. How much is going to be VGC off with their sales then?. I asked this quiestion earlier but i did not received an answer. Switch is 26'1M sold to consumers with 3 weeks left for 2018 according to VGC. If Switch ships 11M in Q3 that will put Switch around 34M shipped. Then..., how much is going Switch to sell by the end of the year to the consumers then?

In my case, I expect 3-3'5M more for Switch, ending around 16-16'5M like i always said, so 29-29'5M total sales to consumers. Is there going to be 4-5M Switch on shelves then???. If not, is Switch going to sell 1'5-2M per week the last 3 weeks of the year??, are VGC numbers wrong??

If i expect 29-29'5M sold to consumers by 2018, i expect 2-3M more units on shelves..., that's why i expect around 32-33M shipped, that why it is 9-10M shipped in Q3 for me, how is the split of that 9-10M???, that's more difficult, but that's what i expect.

I dont really care what vgchartz numbers say since they are so prone to being off and constantly get adjusted.

Well, so i think you choose option VGC numbers are wrong then. What about the guy the other day that said Switch surpassed 25M and PS4 surpassed 90M. Is he wrong too? What about the official number of Nintendo and NPD saying Switch had sold at the end of November 8'7M units in USA lifetime?? Was that wrong too? Because knowing that number and JP numbers we can make a better assumption if VGC numbers are correct or not. We know UK numbers already too. So then..., is that 26'1M number for VGC so off in the markets we already know numbers?? How much do you think then Switch is with 3 weeks left to end 2018??, how many units do you think will be by the end of the year?, 29M, 30M, 31M, 32M?? We are here to discuss numbers, but if you don't give me any, i can't say if i agree with you or not in this topic.

You're going off on ridiculous tangents. The random guy who said 90m & 25m were basic estimates and of course the Nintendo/NPD numbers are correct.

I think 30+ million sold and 33-34 million shipped.

This is what I said two months ago - I'll stand by this. There's a good chance of the third quarter coming in around 10 million and I see 3 to 3.5 million as the range for the fourth quarter. Much as I'd like to see 4 million in Q4, I'm not sure Switch's baseline is going to be high enough for that without either a price cut or a hardware revision (especially to lift sales in Japan, where it's selling strongly for a home console but behind the sales curve of the more successful portable systems like 3DS and DS). 

It's very clear that first quarter has cost them in terms of hardware sales, but given they'll likely be exceeding their software target and will likely be within 10% of their hardware target, I don't think they'll be concerned. If they'd kept to a 3 million (or so) pace in the first quarter, we'd likely be looking at Switch coming in somewhere around 19.2 to 19.7 for the fiscal year, perhaps even bang on 20 million. Labo, like Arms and 1-2 Switch, hasn't caught on the way Nintendo's more conventional first party offerings has - but the tremendous success of Smash Bros and continuing success of the evergreen cohort bodes very well for Luigi's Mansion 3, Animal Crossing and Pokemon generation 8, and for Nintendo's next financial year.

It'll be interesting to see what software Nintendo offer after 2019. The only major sellers waiting in the wings I can think of would be Super Mario Maker and perhaps a Switch version of Nintendogs, but I'd guess Nintendo will have something less conventional planned, too (new IP). Metroid Prime 4 and Bayonetta 3 are candidates for 2020 (as well as 2019), but they won't be major sales drivers.