zorg1000 said:
Your Americas numbers dont make sense though. You have 4.25-4.5 million when actual sell through will be that much. USA Oct+Nov was over 1.6 million, insiders are saying 2-2.5m for Dec putting USA at 3.6-4.1m. Canada is about 10% of USA so 4-4.5 million for USA+Canada. Latin America will be another couple hundred thousand so 4.2-4.7 million sell through for Americas meaning shipments would need to be closer to 4.5-5 million for shipments. If your Americas numbers are low than your Other is likely low as well since it has remained consistently 80-90% of Americas.
10 million is the minimum this quarter, not the maximum and Q4 doing the same or worse as last year doesn't make much sense either when looking at all the momentum it has at the moment. |
If 10M is the minimum and let's say, 11M is the best option. How much is going to be VGC off with their sales then?. I asked this quiestion earlier but i did not received an answer. Switch is 26'1M sold to consumers with 3 weeks left for 2018 according to VGC. If Switch ships 11M in Q3 that will put Switch around 34M shipped. Then..., how much is going Switch to sell by the end of the year to the consumers then?
In my case, I expect 3-3'5M more for Switch, ending around 16-16'5M like i always said, so 29-29'5M total sales to consumers. Is there going to be 4-5M Switch on shelves then???. If not, is Switch going to sell 1'5-2M per week the last 3 weeks of the year??, are VGC numbers wrong??
If i expect 29-29'5M sold to consumers by 2018, i expect 2-3M more units on shelves..., that's why i expect around 32-33M shipped, that why it is 9-10M shipped in Q3 for me, how is the split of that 9-10M???, that's more difficult, but that's what i expect.
