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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - So... Will Nintendo be able to ship those 20 million Switch units?

DonFerrari on 21 December 2018

It really is looking like they will be like 2M short.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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Louie on 21 December 2018

So, according to Gamefront (site is in german and you have to scroll down a bit) Furukawa said to Kyoto Shimbun newspaper he is positive Nintendo will reach its software shipment target of 100 million units but reaching the 20m hardware forecast "is not an easy to reach target" and they'll have to see how things develop in early 2019. (Maybe someone has an english source for this? I'm working right now, so not much time to post).

So, it looks like they know they won't hit 20m but software sales will probably exceed 100m. I still think they banked on Labo being a big hit earlier this year but then it underperformed. But it should be ok, as 2019 is shaping up to be a really strong year.



manuelogando40 on 21 December 2018
Louie said:

So, according to Gamefront (site is in german and you have to scroll down a bit) Furukawa said to Kyoto Shimbun newspaper he is positive Nintendo will reach its software shipment target of 100 million units but reaching the 20m hardware forecast "is not an easy to reach target" and they'll have to see how things develop in early 2019. (Maybe someone has an english source for this? I'm working right now, so not much time to post).

So, it looks like they know they won't hit 20m but software sales will probably exceed 100m. I still think they banked on Labo being a big hit earlier this year but then it underperformed. But it should be ok, as 2019 is shaping up to be a really strong year.

He is repeating same words as October investment questions. 



"Every day I look in the mirror and ask myself: "If today were the last day of my life, would I want to do what I am about to do today?". If the answer is no for too many days in a row, I know I need to change something"

Steve Jobs

Louie on 21 December 2018
manuelogando40 said:

 

He is repeating same words as October investment questions. 

Well, yeah probably not much has changed since then. (Great sig by the way, love that quote from Jobs!)



Miyamotoo on 21 December 2018
Louie said:

So, according to Gamefront (site is in german and you have to scroll down a bit) Furukawa said to Kyoto Shimbun newspaper he is positive Nintendo will reach its software shipment target of 100 million units but reaching the 20m hardware forecast "is not an easy to reach target" and they'll have to see how things develop in early 2019. (Maybe someone has an english source for this? I'm working right now, so not much time to post).

So, it looks like they know they won't hit 20m but software sales will probably exceed 100m. I still think they banked on Labo being a big hit earlier this year but then it underperformed. But it should be ok, as 2019 is shaping up to be a really strong year.

Few months ago they said same thing, that 20m goal is not is to reach, even Kimishima said same thing when they actually revealed that forecast for 20m FY, so that nothing new and nothing didnt changed.



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VAMatt on 21 December 2018

Companies are supposed to (and essentially always do) issue conservative estimates for performance. Therefore, since they said 20mm, we know that they actually expected 21 or 22 million. If they fall short of 20mm units, that will be seen as a significant miss by anyone that cares about the financial performance of Nintendo.



DonFerrari on 21 December 2018
VAMatt said:
Companies are supposed to (and essentially always do) issue conservative estimates for performance. Therefore, since they said 20mm, we know that they actually expected 21 or 22 million. If they fall short of 20mm units, that will be seen as a significant miss by anyone that cares about the financial performance of Nintendo.

Recently we have seen Sony basically under project for PS4 every single year (sometimes over than 2M).

Also we have seem Nintendo over project on 3DS and WiiU, but get close U/O on Switch. If they get under 2M of projection while being conservative that can impact them negatively.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Fight-the-Streets on 21 December 2018

I stand by my opinion: If they can do 10 mil. or close to in Q3 (and it seems by now that this will come true), the 20 mil. for FY are possible. To make 5 mil. in Q4 is hard to do but doable. Since New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe comes out in early Jan it now has some weight in favour of meeting the target. On top of that, Dragon Quest Builders 2 came out yesterday in Japan. This game is huge in Japan and will definitely boost some console units.



zorg1000 on 21 December 2018
Fight-the-Streets said:
I stand by my opinion: If they can do 10 mil. or close to in Q3 (and it seems by now that this will come true), the 20 mil. for FY are possible. To make 5 mil. in Q4 is hard to do but doable. Since New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe comes out in early Jan it now has some weight in favour of meeting the target. On top of that, Dragon Quest Builders 2 came out yesterday in Japan. This game is huge in Japan and will definitely boost some console units.

Dragon Quest Builders 2 seems to be doing quite a bit below the first.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Kristof81 on 21 December 2018

17 million units by the end of this FY, unless Nintendo releases new SKU before end of March (on 2nd anniversary maybe?), then sure, 20 mil easily.