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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - So... Will Nintendo be able to ship those 20 million Switch units?

Angelus on 22 June 2018
bubblegamer said:
Touchy people get triggered whenever someone has a different view. Great "discussion" lol.

Only circle jerks allowed here.

Whereas this post definitely fosters great discussion, yes? 

If you think there's a problem, don't be part of it.



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TheWPCTraveler on 22 June 2018

 

 

           

 

Miyamotoo said:
TheWPCTraveler said:

To italicized: I will concede this point. At this point last year, I didn't imagine that the big tentpoles of the Switch would do so well in terms of selling to a large part of the install base.

To bolded: You do realize that Hyrule Warriors: Definitive Edition and that Tropical Freeze port released in May 2018 (in the USA), right? Smaller releases, sure, but releases nonetheless. The biggest release in May last year on Switch (in the USA) was Puyo Puyo Tetris, which was something, I guess.

To the underlined: Even if just to satisfy my curiosity, please provide a game-by-game breakdown for how Switch software will hit 100 million units this fiscal year. I just want to seethe details behind how you think it will happen - which is what I think Megiddo was aiming for, and what I was definitely trying to bait from you by going for conservative estimates :P

Offcourse I do realise that, but like you said they are not big relases, last year you had Zelda BotW in March and MK8D in April with huge stock problems, so no every one who wanted them bouth Switch and those games in those months, thats why those games had great sales months after launch. And in any case, thats a point Switch this year has more releases and much higher install and with every new release and sold Switch you have more software sales in any case than you had last year.

I don't intend to do game-by-game breakdown because that's almost impossible, there are too many games and too many things to take in consideration like higher install base and increased attach rate with more releases. But at least I gave you how much I expecting software sales to be per quarters, around 15-20m per quarter and around 50m for holiday season quarter.

Also dont ignore point that Nintendo just in January-March period sold 17.8m games, again without big releases (actually Switch only had few releases in that time period and April-June period has much more releases). If you want more accurate break down for big games for January-March period (last quarter), you will be intrest to know that just in those 3 months, Mario Odyssey sold 1.35m, MK8D 1.9m, Zelda BotW 1.8m and Splatoon 1.1m, so we talking around 6.5m only for those 4 older games in one quarter, in your calculation for those games you calculated around 11.5m for hole FY (including holiday season).

Well, I didn't check the sales figures for the last quarter, so I guess I failed when trying to make plausible estimates - in hindsight, I should've doubled the legs of the big 4 last year. Oh well. And, in any case, you can just try to focus on the sales of the eight or so biggest sellers (which should make up the majority of all Switch software sales last fiscal year) instead if you find the volume of games overwhelming.



 
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Miyamotoo on 22 June 2018
TheWPCTraveler said:

 

 

 

 

Miyamotoo said:

Offcourse I do realise that, but like you said they are not big relases, last year you had Zelda BotW in March and MK8D in April with huge stock problems, so no every one who wanted them bouth Switch and those games in those months, thats why those games had great sales months after launch. And in any case, thats a point Switch this year has more releases and much higher install and with every new release and sold Switch you have more software sales in any case than you had last year.

I don't intend to do game-by-game breakdown because that's almost impossible, there are too many games and too many things to take in consideration like higher install base and increased attach rate with more releases. But at least I gave you how much I expecting software sales to be per quarters, around 15-20m per quarter and around 50m for holiday season quarter.

Also dont ignore point that Nintendo just in January-March period sold 17.8m games, again without big releases (actually Switch only had few releases in that time period and April-June period has much more releases). If you want more accurate break down for big games for January-March period (last quarter), you will be intrest to know that just in those 3 months, Mario Odyssey sold 1.35m, MK8D 1.9m, Zelda BotW 1.8m and Splatoon 1.1m, so we talking around 6.5m only for those 4 older games in one quarter, in your calculation for those games you calculated around 11.5m for hole FY (including holiday season).

Well, I didn't check the sales figures for the last quarter, so I guess I failed when trying to make plausible estimates - in hindsight, I should've doubled the legs of the big 4 last year. Oh well. And, in any case, you can just try to focus on the sales of the eight or so biggest sellers (which should make up the majority of all Switch software sales last fiscal year) instead if you find the volume of games overwhelming.

Well point is that only those 4 games sold 6.5m from 17.8m in quarter that has only few new releases, and based on that you can make assumption how much softwares sales we will have in quarters with much more releases and actualy big releases, and how much those 4 evergreen titles can perform.

In any case, at end of next month we will have first quarter report of FY 2018. (I expecting at least 15-20m software sales) so we can take further conclusions from that, but even now with January-March sales on mind, 100m goal definitely looks very achievable.



peachbuggy on 22 June 2018
quickrick said:
peachbuggy said:

You want hype? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XV3d8YRMIsA

That is just a very small part of it. Smash is making more people much more hyped than Mario did. This ULTIMATE Smash will easily become the best selling Smash,i have no doubt about that. As for metacritic, i doubt it will go as high as 97 but i also doubt it will make much difference sales-wise tbh.

mario is getting like 3x the views on youtube, but ok...

Which videos are you comparing and do you have any proof of this?



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Barkley on 22 June 2018
peachbuggy said:
quickrick said:

mario is getting like 3x the views on youtube, but ok...

Which videos are you comparing and do you have any proof of this?

Thought I'd look it up myself to see.

Mario Odyssey reveal trailer got 9.5m views in 10 days.  (Jan 22nd 2017) - https://web.archive.org/web/20170122000012/https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5kcdRBHM7kM   -  Current

The Smash Bros video has 3.5m views in 10 days, assuming this is the biggest



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bubblegamer on 22 June 2018
Angelus said:
bubblegamer said:
Touchy people get triggered whenever someone has a different view. Great "discussion" lol.

Only circle jerks allowed here.

Whereas this post definitely fosters great discussion, yes? 

If you think there's a problem, don't be part of it.

Stating there is a problem is contributing to it? I don't see mods solving anything. It's always the same reply. Passive moderation ftw.



peachbuggy on 22 June 2018
Barkley said:
peachbuggy said:

Which videos are you comparing and do you have any proof of this?

Thought I'd look it up myself to see.

Mario Odyssey reveal trailer got 9.5m views in 10 days.  (Jan 22nd 2017) - https://web.archive.org/web/20170122000012/https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5kcdRBHM7kM   -  Current

The Smash Bros video has 3.5m views in 10 days, assuming this is the biggest

Interesting, although i would guess the Smash viewership is spread over several videos. So many popped up after the initial reveal!



DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!

In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

quickrick on 22 June 2018
Barkley said:
peachbuggy said:

Which videos are you comparing and do you have any proof of this?

Thought I'd look it up myself to see.

Mario Odyssey reveal trailer got 9.5m views in 10 days.  (Jan 22nd 2017) - https://web.archive.org/web/20170122000012/https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5kcdRBHM7kM   -  Current

The Smash Bros video has 3.5m views in 10 days, assuming this is the biggest

Yup hype was a different level, nobody had anything negative to say, it was just pure hype. it got up to 20 million views pretty fast as well.



Otter on 22 June 2018

hmm, I think people are over estimating pokemon. Its visibly not a mainline game. I think they will fall short unlesss we see a pricecut



Angelus on 22 June 2018
bubblegamer said:
Angelus said:

Whereas this post definitely fosters great discussion, yes? 

If you think there's a problem, don't be part of it.

Stating there is a problem is contributing to it? I don't see mods solving anything. It's always the same reply. Passive moderation ftw.

Stating there's a problem is one thing. You don't think there's a good discussion happening in this thread...fine, no problem. You didn't leave it at that though, did you?

"Only circle jerks allowed here"

Had to get that in there, take a shot at everyone who's participated in this thread, regardless of the quality of their posts, or their actual individual willingness to have an open minded discussion. If you don't see the irony in your post, maligning the lack of "great discussion," while simultaneously throwing everyone here under the same bus of being willfully obstinate, then maybe you're not even personally capable of great discussion.

Edit: Also, if you have a problem with the moderation on this site, bring it up in the moderator thread, or contact one of the head mods privately. This isn't the place for it.

Last edited by Angelus - on 22 June 2018