So... Will Nintendo be able to ship those 20 million Switch units?

[TheWPCTraveler]

 

 

           

 

Miyamotoo said:

TheWPCTraveler said:

To italicized: I will concede this point. At this point last year, I didn't imagine that the big tentpoles of the Switch would do so well in terms of selling to a large part of the install base.

To bolded: You do realize that Hyrule Warriors: Definitive Edition and that Tropical Freeze port released in May 2018 (in the USA), right? Smaller releases, sure, but releases nonetheless. The biggest release in May last year on Switch (in the USA) was Puyo Puyo Tetris, which was something, I guess.

To the underlined: Even if just to satisfy my curiosity, please provide a game-by-game breakdown for how Switch software will hit 100 million units this fiscal year. I just want to seethe details behind how you think it will happen - which is what I think Megiddo was aiming for, and what I was definitely trying to bait from you by going for conservative estimates :P

Offcourse I do realise that, but like you said they are not big relases, last year you had Zelda BotW in March and MK8D in April with huge stock problems, so no every one who wanted them bouth Switch and those games in those months, thats why those games had great sales months after launch. And in any case, thats a point Switch this year has more releases and much higher install and with every new release and sold Switch you have more software sales in any case than you had last year.

I don't intend to do game-by-game breakdown because that's almost impossible, there are too many games and too many things to take in consideration like higher install base and increased attach rate with more releases. But at least I gave you how much I expecting software sales to be per quarters, around 15-20m per quarter and around 50m for holiday season quarter.

Also dont ignore point that Nintendo just in January-March period sold 17.8m games, again without big releases (actually Switch only had few releases in that time period and April-June period has much more releases). If you want more accurate break down for big games for January-March period (last quarter), you will be intrest to know that just in those 3 months, Mario Odyssey sold 1.35m, MK8D 1.9m, Zelda BotW 1.8m and Splatoon 1.1m, so we talking around 6.5m only for those 4 older games in one quarter, in your calculation for those games you calculated around 11.5m for hole FY (including holiday season).

Well, I didn't check the sales figures for the last quarter, so I guess I failed when trying to make plausible estimates - in hindsight, I should've doubled the legs of the big 4 last year. Oh well. And, in any case, you can just try to focus on the sales of the eight or so biggest sellers (which should make up the majority of all Switch software sales last fiscal year) instead if you find the volume of games overwhelming.