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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Predict lifetime sales of Octopath Traveler

 

I think it will sell...

Less than 1 million 14 9.52%
 
1-2 million 79 53.74%
 
2-3 million 40 27.21%
 
Over 3 million 14 9.52%
 
Total:147
Acevil on 05 July 2018

1-2 million myself. I think it will do pretty poorly in Japan when compared to Bravery Default, but the ratio in the west will be much higher.



 

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FarleyMcFirefly on 06 July 2018

1.6 million



1doesnotsimply

Miyamotoo on 06 July 2018

Game definitely have solid hype and solid push, also it seems it will be a quite good game, so I will say 2m+.



routsounmanman on 06 July 2018

My bet is 2-3m. At least I hope so. Cannot wait for the game in 1 week. Have played the demo more than 4 times :)



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caffeinade on 06 July 2018

5+ million.
The Switch userbase will go crazy for this one.
Honestly (subjectively), it is probably the best looking game that system will get for a long time.

Pretty much everyone who bought Xenoblade 2, are probably buying this day one, and I feel like this style of game has a much broader appeal than a Xenoblade.
It's a: retro appeal, indie appeal, JRPG appeal, and a system exclusive appeal.
Plus it already has phenomenal traction with the Switch's user-base, and it is coming at a time where there is a pretty bad software drought, on a system with a pretty sizable install base.
This thing will make a load of profit.

Last edited by caffeinade - on 06 July 2018

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OTBWY on 06 July 2018

1,7 million (at least). This game has a lot of people looking. I think word of mouth will get it closer to 2m maybe. But it will all be decided in those first few weeks. I predict 1m pretty quick.



Bofferbrauer2 on 06 July 2018

Well, looks like it's slowly moving more into the 2M+ in the poll compared to one month ago



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melbye on 06 July 2018

Over a million, not sure if it can catch Xenoblade 2



Cerebralbore101 on 07 July 2018
TruckOSaurus said:
Slownenberg said:
Depends on the price. Since its a retro style (granted its 2d retro on 3d world) it feels like an indie game that should be like $30. I'm totally down to buy this game for that kind of price. But no way I'm buying it anywhere close to $60. Does it have a price yet? If it's near $60 I say definitely under 1 million. If it's $30 I could see lifetime 1.5 - 2 million.

I really don't understand this line of thought. If the game has solid RPG mechanics (which the demo seems to suggest) and provides 20-30 hours (maybe more) of enjoyable gaming why can't it be priced $60?

Because there's plenty of fantastic JRPGs on 3DS with similar (or better) graphics that launched at $40. I'm pretty sure that the price won't effect sales much, but I do think it should be cheaper than what it is. 



HylianSwordsman on 07 July 2018

Given that the Bravely series did 1.41 and 0.56 million for Default and Second respectively, I think Octopath will do over a million, but not by much. 3DS had a much larger and engaged userbase at the time than Switch does now, and still sold that little. Octopath will have the advantage of being the first of its kind on the system, and in the middle of a relative drought, though not a terribly bad one by Wii U standards. If not for those advantages, it wouldn't even do a million. I say this as someone who loved the Bravely series and wants to buy Octopath day one and see it succeed. I'm hopeful it will gain enough momentum to get a little past Default and maybe even over 2 million, but I don't expect it.