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Given that the Bravely series did 1.41 and 0.56 million for Default and Second respectively, I think Octopath will do over a million, but not by much. 3DS had a much larger and engaged userbase at the time than Switch does now, and still sold that little. Octopath will have the advantage of being the first of its kind on the system, and in the middle of a relative drought, though not a terribly bad one by Wii U standards. If not for those advantages, it wouldn't even do a million. I say this as someone who loved the Bravely series and wants to buy Octopath day one and see it succeed. I'm hopeful it will gain enough momentum to get a little past Default and maybe even over 2 million, but I don't expect it.