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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan sales (Week 18): Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - April 30 - May 6, 2018 (Golden Week)

Wow that Switch software dominance!

PS4 will no doubt fall back to a ~20k baseline in the coming weeks.

Labo looking real strong. Surprised at how well the variety kit is selling. Definitely a win for such a niche product.



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Woah, great sales. Looks like Labo is holding nice. DKCTF did okay in my book. Could have been a bit more, 100k-ish. Switch dominates again. PS4 is around the same max number I feel.



Jranation said:
zorg1000 said:
Tropical Freeze did about 2.5x as much as the Wii U version and just slightly under Returns 3D (probably about the same with digital).

That is Crazy! I hope more people understand why we are also getting Wii U ports. 

I think the original ended up shipping like ~1.2 million globally, i think this time it will do 2-3 million.

Captain Toad is next! One of my favorite Wii U games, hopefully this time is blows past 1 million globally.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

That's a solid increase for Tropical Freeze and legs should be decent as well.

I hope The Wonderful 101 also gets a Switch port because that game definitely deserves a second chance.



Megiddo said:
BlackBeauty said:

But I was told last week PS4 base line is 30 - 35K (with STOCK!!!!!)

Where were you told that? The baseline is not 30-35k That's incredibly foolish. The PS4 is 5 years old and is a dedicated home console with an increasingly Western focus. It's not going to have almost the same baseline as the 2nd year of Nintendo's latest portable/home console.

 

Kyuu said:
BlackBeauty said:

But I was told last week PS4 base line is 30 - 35K (with STOCK!!!!!)

why the sudden change? :(

Will the shortage excuse be back when it’s 10K after golden week? Stay tune folks.

Whoever told you that is making groundless speculations. But the shortages aren't an excuse. You need to get over it!

I think a couple people said last week thread that the supply issue was fixed. 



Pocky Lover Boy! 

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BlackBeauty said:
Megiddo said:

Is there something wrong with your brain? Both weeks it sold ~35k. That's the truth. Do you not know how to read numbers? The demand, after a long duration of being supply constrained rose. It will fall again back to a more reasonable 20-25k. That's how sales work.

But I was told last week PS4 base line is 30 - 35K (with STOCK!!!!!)

why the sudden change? :(

Will the shortage excuse be back when it’s 10K after golden week? Stay tune folks.


When Pro sold twice the amount of Slim, there were definitely supply issues.
And the reason PS4 sold just as much last week as during Golden Week is probably because it was previously supply constrained.
That does not mean that 35k is its new baseline. I don't think it is. I expect something more around 20k, a few weeks from now.



It is fixed (for now at least, PS4 Slim & Pro are available in all online retailers). That's why it sold 3x what it sold when it was supply constraint. How are you not understanding this?

Golden Week has Children's Day. That's why Nintendo software gets a big boost and PS4 software does not. It's a holiday that pretty much caters to the more family-friendly Nintendo games and not to God of War/Far Cry 5/etc. Of course the PS4 isn't going to see a particularly big GW boost when it doesn't have the software that caters to Children's Day.



Megiddo said:
It is fixed (for now at least, PS4 Slim & Pro are available in all online retailers). That's why it sold 3x what it sold when it was supply constraint. How are you not understanding this?

BlackBeauty appears to be sarcastically implying that the stock issues were just an "excuse", because some people now think 35k is PS4's baseline.
Those two things are not mutually exclusive however. PS4 definitely had supply issues a few weeks ago. And it reached 35k this week because of Golden Week.

Last edited by Hiku - on 09 May 2018

Megiddo said:

Here is the week 18 update in terms of the two big consoles in Japan's path to be able to reach the commonly stated (in these sales threads) estimates for 2018 sales (2 mil for PS4, 4 mil for Switch) .

  TWS GD YTD AWN (Change)
PS4 34,994 +528 828,667 34,450 (-16)
Switch 53,113 -37,361 886,516 91,573 (+1099)

TWS - This week's sales
GD - Goal differential, the difference between the average week needed from last week compared to this week's sales
YTD - Units sold in 2018 so far including this week's sales
AWN - Average weekly sales needed to reach the estimate for the console.

PS4 stays level with last week and reaches its AWN once again as stock remains fully available for Golden Week. Switch gets the anticipated GW boost following a strong initial week for DKTF.

Have your predictions for this year changed at all? I remember you saying PS4 could sell 2.8 million this year (i dont remember what you said for NSW).



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

XD84 said:
Farsala said:

Huh? the baseball game is ahead of DK for now as COMG predicted. And weekly COMG predicted the DK win this week, if that's what you meant.

 

1. NSW Donkey Kong Country Tropical Freeze  109
2. PS4 Jikkyou Powerful Pro Yakyuu  54

I was talking about the pre order numbers.

Last day:

Baseball PS4 61

Donkey Kong 23

But obviously the week numbers indicate that Donkey Kong sold better. Thank you for your correction.

Those line up pretty good to

Baseball PS4 61: 125k,         2:1

Baseball PSV 18: 58k,           3:1

DK 23 : 88k,                           4:1

They all greatly exceeded COMG's expectations since the preorder numbers were so low compared to actual sales numbers. And there is digital numbers to take into account.