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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan sales (Week 14): Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - April 2 - 8, 2018

Jranation said:
zorg1000 said:
Q2 2017 weekly average

PS4-22.5k
NSW-36.5k

Q2 2018 weekly average
PS4-14.5k
NSW-40k


PS4 starts out this quarter on a bad note and is significantly behind the weekly average of Q2 last year and without big hitters this Spring, its hard to imagine this changing.

NSW started out this quarter a tad bit ahead of the average of Q2 last year. It has held a consistent 40-50k for the last 13 weeks so will be interesting to see if that can continue. Also Labo is a potential system seller.

Why IS PS4 really low? Didn't Monster Hunter help  it?

It did, but it released over 2 months ago and has already sold like 2.8 million, its affect is over and there hasnt been any other big games since, just a handful of 50-100k sellers. 



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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It might be time for Sony to cut the price if this kind of performance continues. They haven't done that in Japan since Fall 2016.



ikki5 said:
zorg1000 said:
Q2 2017 weekly average

PS4-22.5k
NSW-36.5k

Q2 2018 weekly average
PS4-14.5k
NSW-40k


PS4 starts out this quarter on a bad note and is significantly behind the weekly average of Q2 last year and without big hitters this Spring, its hard to imagine this changing.

NSW started out this quarter a tad bit ahead of the average of Q2 last year. It has held a consistent 40-50k for the last 13 weeks so will be interesting to see if that can continue. Also Labo is a potential system seller.

How did it start out last year? This is one of the lowest selling points in the year for most things. It makes sense to be below average considering later in the year are when the mega weeks begin.

Q1 was very good for PS4 due to Monster Hunter

Q1 2017-513k

Q1 2018-720k

But looking at recent sales trends leads me to believe that YOY increase is going to vanish.

As of Week 7, PS4 had a 258k YOY lead

As of week 14, the lead has dropped to 197k

 

 

What mega weeks are you referring to? With 4 years of data we have seen that PS4 does not get a huge holiday boost. Q4 has averaged about 33% of yearly sales for PS4, meaning that Q4 is about the size of 1.5 regular quarters.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Switch Pac Man, although given the circumstances for everything else it's not just as impressive as it has been before...

Kirby still doing very good at #1 this week.

Doesn't look like Japan is going to stop being handheld centric.



Talking about future PS4 sales, it seems that PS4 will not have bigger game in next few months, in comparison, Switch will have Labo at end of April, than DKTF in beginning of May, than Mario Tennis Aces, than Splatoon 2 DLC...



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All you have to do is look at COMG to see that PS4 will have a number of games released. Baseball, Persona, Gundam Breaker,  Fate, etc. Seriously, stop on by the COMG thread if your argument is that the Switch has a better outlook on games in the near future.

Here is the week 14 update in terms of the two big consoles in Japan's path to be able to reach the commonly stated (in these sales threads) estimates for 2018 sales (2 mil for PS4, 4 mil for Switch) .

  TWS GD YTD AWN (Change)
PS4 14,500 -18,326 734,253 33,309 (+483)
Switch 40,016 -45,005 724,178 86,205 (+1184)

TWS - This week's sales
GD - Goal differential, the difference between the average week needed from last week compared to this week's sales
YTD - Units sold in 2018 so far including this week's sales
AWN - Average weekly sales needed to reach the estimate for the console.

Switch continues to sell about half of its AWN. Judging from its past performance during the holidays, that is about where it needs to be during this 'dry' period. PS4 is hindered by stock issues and is woefully short of its needed weekly estimate. If it continues to perform as it has once stock is replenished then things are not looking good.

Last edited by Megiddo - on 11 April 2018

Carl2291 said:
PS4 supply seems really weird.

Well let's hope its supply or else it's doomed. RolStoppable reply to you makes sense though. 



Damn, I remember waiting for these numbers every week back in the DS vs PSP days. Japan used to sell a quarter million consoles per week, maybe more (just based on memory). It is concerning to see such low numbers all around.



Anyone who thinks the PS4 sales data is because of any shortages is just being defensive and needs to get real........demand for the PS4 has certainly dropped this week. How do I know ? The number of PS4 Pros sold. No supply chain issues can reasonably explain an almost 50% drop in sale of the Pro.
Anyone who thinks Sony could not supply more than 6k Pro devices to Japan last week needs a one way ticket out of La-la-land....and I'm selling.



Megiddo said:
So PS4 shortage confirmed. Put out some inventory already, sheesh.

They'll be re-targeting their production line for GOW



 

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