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Forums - Sales - Higher game sales: MK Wii or GTA 4?

Rock_on_2008 on 12 April 2008

Which game will make the highest overall sales out of these two games combined sales? Lets assume MK Wii has an attachment rate of 50% of the current Wii user base of around 24 million. So I estimate that MK Wii will sell in its lifetime around 12 million copies. Now for GTA 4 being on the PS3 and 360. Combined current user base is around 30 million and I say attachment rate would be 50% on current figures that would result in 15 million copies of GTA 4 selling on the PS3 and 360.

So how do you people find these sales estimates?



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Rock_on_2008 on 12 April 2008

I just used the current install base and came up with a possible prediction for the game sales for MK Wii and GTA 4. MK Wii = 12 million and GTA 4 = 16 million sound realistic and achievable.



Xponent on 12 April 2008

I think it will be very close, but GTA 4 will sell more.

I predict 14 - 15 million for Mario Kart, given that it will have tremendous appeal with the Wii's casual userbase as well as the traditional gamers.

GTA 4 will sell around 15 million - 16 million, with more sales for the 360 version.



John_Doe on 12 April 2008
ioi said:
A bit of a random way to do it - how can you base lifetime sales on current hardware LTD figures?

Having said that, I would say around 10-12m for MK Wii, 16-17m for GTA IV (with a 50:50 split for 360 / PS3) - so pretty spot on.

50/50 PS3/360 for GTA4 worlwide????

I was expecting higher soft in 360 and higher hard-boost in PS3...



oliist on 12 April 2008

I am more conservative for both.
MK:9-10.5 million
GTA4:11-14 million with up to 60% for the 360 version.



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Rock_on_2008 on 12 April 2008
John_Doe said:
ioi said:
A bit of a random way to do it - how can you base lifetime sales on current hardware LTD figures?

Having said that, I would say around 10-12m for MK Wii, 16-17m for GTA IV (with a 50:50 split for 360 / PS3) - so pretty spot on.

50/50 PS3/360 for GTA4 worlwide????

I was expecting higher soft in 360 and higher hard-boost in PS3...


 Do not argue with ioi. ioi is the man. ioi is the Boss. We are talking about lifetime game sales and ioi is spot on.



Man on 12 April 2008
Rock_on_2008 said:

Combined current user base is around 40 million and I say attachment rate would be 40% on current figures that would result in 16 million copies of GTA 4 selling on the PS3 and 360.


I may have misunderstood, but from the front page data, the 360 + ps3 is about 30 million.



Rock_on_2008 on 12 April 2008
Man said:
Rock_on_2008 said:

Combined current user base is around 40 million and I say attachment rate would be 40% on current figures that would result in 16 million copies of GTA 4 selling on the PS3 and 360.


I may have misunderstood, but from the front page data, the 360 + ps3 is about 30 million.


Oops lol. 40% of 40 million sounded good lol.



amp316 on 12 April 2008

GTA 4 will definitely sell the most. MK Wii is one of the big games for the Wii. GTA 4 is THE GAME for the other two systems and when I say the game I don't mean any disrespect to MGS 4 or any other games coming out but GTA is a pop culture phenomenon. I think it will be the best selling game of the year. Even bigger than SSBB.



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tombi123 on 12 April 2008
Soriku said:
It depends what you're talking about. Is it MK Wii vs. GTA4 PS3 and 360 or MK Wii vs. GTA 4 PS3 and 460 (individually). Individually is a fair comparison because you're comparing one Wii game to two of the same big games on two different platforms. Individually, I'd say MK Wii will pass both the PS3 and 360 version sales if ioi's predictions are correct. Combined (which is not fair) GTA4 will beat out MK Wii.

 Of course it is fair to combine PS3 and 360 GTA4 sales. Its the same game. Nobody is going to buy GTA4 for both 360 and the PS3. They are not two different games. The only way to compare GTA4 sales to previous GTA games is to combine the sales on both the consoles. The same applies when you compare GTA4 sales to any other game. 

GTA4: 18M              MKWii: 10M

GTA4 is just a bigger game...