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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan sales (Week 13): Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - March 26- April 1, 2018

RolStoppable said:
3DS crossed the 24m mark, its final milestone.

Switch vs. Vita makes for an interesting race to 6m units.

Was hoping it would hit 25m but doesnt look likely.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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Might reach 24.5 million if its lucky. But yes, I was also hoping for the 25 million mark. Oh well, maybe Switch can do the job.



John19 said:
Megiddo said:

Here is the week 13 update in terms of the two big consoles in Japan's path to be able to reach the commonly stated (in these sales threads) estimates for 2018 sales (2 mil for PS4, 4 mil for Switch) .

  TWS GD YTD AWN (Change)
PS4 25,325 -7,314 719,753 32,826 (+187)
Switch 44,033 -39,963 684,162 85,021 (+1025)

TWS - This week's sales
GD - Goal differential, the difference between the average week needed from last week compared to this week's sales
YTD - Units sold in 2018 so far including this week's sales
AWN - Average weekly sales needed to reach the estimate for the console.

Marginal increase for PS4 and marginal decrease in Switch sales this week. Only a couple weeks from Labo, so will be interesting to see if the Switch gets closer to its AWN for its release. Will Sony have more stock in Japan now for the new fiscal year? Might see some interesting changes in the upcoming few weeks..

I’m pretty sure PS4 hasn’t really had any stock issues for the past few weeks in Japan now

Exactly. People keep saying "PS4 stock issues still?" But 20-25k is just normal for ps4. It was higher a bit ago because of Monster Hunter, that time has passed now. 20k is the baseline.



Again, we will see. Typically consoles are not near-impossible to find online if there's sufficient stock in stores. Maybe Sony just hates online retailers or something. I can't physically look at every single physical store in Japan, but I can track online availability. And everything that I've seen in the past 2-3 weeks at least points to a shortage. Maybe it's just an online shortage? That would be something.

Rakuten: https://search.rakuten.co.jp/search/mall/ps4+%E6%9C%AC%E4%BD%93/?f=1&grp=product

Toys R Us: https://www.toysrus.co.jp/c001060090010/

Nojima: https://online.nojima.co.jp/category/10971/?currentPage=1

Last edited by Megiddo - on 04 April 2018

kirby and splatoon 2 looking good



NND: 0047-7271-7918 | XBL: Nights illusion | PSN: GameNChick

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Been waiting quite awhile for this comparison, and finally the quarter has ended. It is simply Q1 and Q4 PS4 sales in Japan.

2014- Q1 2017 from Shadow. Everything else is my attempt at the numbers.

Q1 2014: 493,338 (partial quarter; incl. 309k on launch week)

Q4 2014: 244,588



Q1 2015: 378,434

Q4 2015: 456,834



Q1 2016: 382,680

Q4 2016: 797,172



Q1 2017: 512,789

Q4 2017: 651,736

Q1 2018: 719,753

Avg Q1: 497, 398
Avg Q4: 537,582

Conclusions: FFXV and MHW created quite the monster quarters, but otherwise they are fairly equal according to the averages . Holiday boosts seem nonexistent for PS4. However with each Q1 the next Q4 was always better except for launch year. Will Q4 be bigger this year? Obviously depends on games, but it is definitely a possibility.



Ni no Kuni II had a better hold than I thought it would (thought it would drop like 90% because jprgs usually drop a lot in second week). Zelda selling more than Mario is surprising, though the difference between them is small. MHW kinda collapsing.



Pretty poor from SRW sadly, but at least it looks like it's a fairly cheaply-made sequel so shouldn't be a huge loss.



Farsala said:
Been waiting quite awhile for this comparison, and finally the quarter has ended. It is simply Q1 and Q4 PS4 sales in Japan.

2014- Q1 2017 from Shadow. Everything else is my attempt at the numbers.

Q1 2014: 493,338 (partial quarter; incl. 309k on launch week)

Q4 2014: 244,588



Q1 2015: 378,434

Q4 2015: 456,834



Q1 2016: 382,680

Q4 2016: 797,172



Q1 2017: 512,789

Q4 2017: 651,736

Q1 2018: 719,753

Avg Q1: 497, 398
Avg Q4: 537,582

Conclusions: FFXV and MHW created quite the monster quarters, but otherwise they are fairly equal according to the averages . Holiday boosts seem nonexistent for PS4. However with each Q1 the next Q4 was always better except for launch year. Will Q4 be bigger this year? Obviously depends on games, but it is definitely a possibility.

This is what i was trying to tell Megiddo last week in his PS4/NSW comparison.

Nintendo hardware gets a significantly stronger holiday boost than PS4 gets. Its not uncommon for Nintendo hardware to get 50% of its yearly sales just in Q4.

PS4 on the other gets a holiday boost but as you just showed its a far more mild boost and only slightly stronger than a regular quarter with the exception of 2016, but that was moreso from FFXV.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

I do not disagree. Nintendo does perform much, much better in Q4 than Sony in terms of Japanese hardware sales. I think that will be a lot of fun to be tracking week by week as it happens.