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Forums - Sales Discussion - NPD, PS4 2015 vs NSW 2018 (December added)

 

Who wins?

PS4 66 40.24%
 
NSW 84 51.22%
 
Tie 14 8.54%
 
Total:164
zorg1000 said:
Lawlight said:
Also interesting that the PS4 was still $400.

Also interesting that PS4 comes with a Blu-Ray player, 500gb hard drive and is 5x more powerful.

But lets only look at PS4 disadvantages.

You think that, in 2015, people are still buying consoles to watch movies? But that’s besides the point. Do you think the PS4 would have sold the same if it released at $299?



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Well, this thread got off to a childish and ridiculous start.

Zorg, please don't forget about or abandon this thread as I have subscribed to it.



Carl is a Piplup hater and deserves to be punished eternally.

I think the Switch will perform better in the first years but life time sales PS4 will end up on top, just a hunch though (since its still too early to predict something like that).



zorg1000 said:
pokoko said:

Actually, I'm kind of struggling to see why his point should be completely dismissed.  Is it not relevant in the short-term?  That's an honest question, by the way, as I do not keep up with the NPD or numbers at all.  If this "extra week" created a blip in the date flow then I see no harm in addressing it.

Not that you need to do anything, as he can note it well enough in his first post.  I just don't really get the "no we won't talk about that" vibe.

Because its irrelevent and this is the first time that anybody has ever made a big deal about a 5 week January.

They have existed before and people have compared years with a 5 week January to years with a 4 week January and its never been an issue.

All of a sudden its a huge issue because it puts their console at a "disadvantage"

If you say so.  From what I can see, both sides are equally guilty of turning it into a "huge issue".  Meanwhile, other people appear to be doing the exact same thing but without challenge.



looking at the chart, i think it will be very close. ps4 had a few bad months (-200k) but it had an awesome holiday.



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Lawlight said:
zorg1000 said:

Also interesting that PS4 comes with a Blu-Ray player, 500gb hard drive and is 5x more powerful.

But lets only look at PS4 disadvantages.

You think that, in 2015, people are still buying consoles to watch movies? But that’s besides the point. Do you think the PS4 would have sold the same if it released at $299?

Do people buy PS4 specifically to watch movies? NO

Does the ability to watch movies add value to PS4? YES

 

 

If PS4 launched at $299 it very well could have sold higher but you also have to take into consideration the other factors that could impact it.

 

1. Assuming it has the same specs, PS4 would have been sold at a huge loss which could have negatively impacted the amount Sony could spend on game development, advertising, securing exclusive marketing/bundles/content etc which could in turn impact sales.

2. Assuming Sony didnt sell it at a huge loss at $299 than PS4 would have been a completely different device with lower specs that runs multiplat titles worse than XBO which impacts sales among the people who care about power/performance in the US.

 

We have no clue what PS4 sales would be like in this hypothetical situation, we can only discuss sales that we know.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:

(...)

Listen to me for once. If you have the time to respond to pointless posts, then you definitely have the time to improve your OP and flesh it out.

Make it clear that 2018 is a leap year in retail, so it has 53 weeks, unlike 2015 which had the usual 52 weeks. The extra week of 2018 is located in January.

Add a list of notable new releases that drove hardware sales to provide context for the monthy sales numbers, so people can comfortably read up on what caused notable spikes. I already provided a summary of those game releases in the January and February periods. Switch releases in 2018 will be easy to add because they happen to be in the present. The PS4 releases can be looked up in the NPD archive that is located at the bottom of the original post of every NPD thread that Boutros makes; alternatively, you can google individual NPD months and click on the writeups of Venture Beat.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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I really dont think the PS4 will take this. Switch has nothing early 2018 but its still ahead. It will have a killer fall/holiday period which can outplay a better first half of a year easily.

Don't forget Switch will have its first black friday deals this year, more stock, Smash and online and more ofc.



xMetroid said:
I really dont think the PS4 will take this. Switch has nothing early 2018 but its still ahead. It will have a killer fall/holiday period which can outplay a better first half of a year easily.

Don't forget Switch will have its first black friday deals this year, more stock, Smash and online and more ofc.

I don't know. When the year started, I thought the PS4 had a good chance of beating Switch. When you factor in that January was 5 weeks for Switch and 4 for PS4 too, you realize that they're probably about equal in terms of sales for the first two months combined. Edit: apparently PS4 would be up by 30k. 

However, what's really damning to me is that the second half of the year is going to have Fire Emblem, Super Smash Brothers, and Animal Crossing or Pokemon.

Fire Emblem's popularity is underestimated and Fates is pretty undertracked here. It sold 1.84 million copies (https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2016/160427_4e.pdf) just one month after it's release in the U.S., which was 7 months after it's release in Japan, but also 2 months before it's release in the EU and AU. I don't expect it to give a huge hardware boost, but it should give a pretty decent one in the U.S. and a big one in Japan. It will do even more if it ends up being an ambitious title. 

The other two games speak for themselves. 

Last edited by AngryLittleAlchemist - on 21 March 2018

AngryLittleAlchemist said:
xMetroid said:
I really dont think the PS4 will take this. Switch has nothing early 2018 but its still ahead. It will have a killer fall/holiday period which can outplay a better first half of a year easily.

Don't forget Switch will have its first black friday deals this year, more stock, Smash and online and more ofc.

I don't know. When the year started, I thought the PS4 had a good chance of beating Switch. When you factor in that January was 5 weeks for Switch and 4 for PS4 too, you realize that they're probably about equal in terms of sales for the first two months combined. 

However, what's really damning to me is that the second half of the year is going to have Fire Emblem, Super Smash Brothers, and Animal Crossing or Pokemon.

Fire Emblem's popularity is underestimated and Fates is pretty undertracked here. It sold 1.84 million copies (https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2016/160427_4e.pdf) just one month after it's release in the U.S., which was 7 months after it's release in Japan, but also 2 months before it's release in the EU and AU. I don't expect it to give a huge hardware boost, but it should give a pretty decent one in the U.S. and a big one in Japan. It will do even more if it ends up being an ambitious title. 

The other two games speak for themselves. 

using resetera 125% for 5 week period, ps4 would be up by 30k.