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Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

Symbios63 said:
09/18/18 :

Overall (with preorders from last month) :

1 - PS4 : 388.4 points (-6.4) ; Month Average : 513.3 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 169.5 points (+16.4) ; Month Average : 324.9 points/day ; 0.63 (-0.01)
3 - NS : 257.8 points (+12.4) ; Month Average : 293.8 points/day ; 0.57 (-)

Well then... I guess september is already decided.
Spiderman gave the PS4 a easy win this month.



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09/20/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 22 (-3) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 25 (+2) - 299.99$
3 (+2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 30 (+57) - 525.00$
4 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 38 (-5) - 299.00$
5 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 51 (-11) - 282.88$
6 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 94 (+3) - 585.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 102 + 92 + 7 = 201 points (+85) ; XBO : 50 points (-22) ; NS : 108 + 76 = 184 points (-22)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 23 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 25 (-) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 36 (-) - 299.99$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 41 (-) - 299.99$
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 42 (-) - 399.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Shadow of the Tomb Raider - 56 (-) - 499.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 61 (-) - 299.99$
8 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 83 (-) - 499.99$
9 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Pikachu! Bundle - 86 (-) - 399.99$
10 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Evee! Bundle - 100 (-) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 106 points (-) ; XBO : 70 + 45 + 40 + 18 = 173 points (-) ; NS : 102 + 80 = 182 points (-)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 3 (-1) - 399.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Evee! Bundle - 6 (-1) - 399.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Pikachu! Bundle - 7 (+1) - 399.99$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 12 (+1) - 299.99$
5 (-) - PS4 Pro 2 TB 500 Million - 31 (-) - Sold out
6 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 32 (-) - 734.99$ (Out of Stock)
7 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 34 (-1) - 599.99$ (Out of Stock)
8 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 35 (-1) - 499.99$ (Out of Stock)
9 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 52 (-1) - 399.00$
10 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 60 (-12) - 299.99$
11 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 106 (-4) - 299.99$
12 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 - 122 (+6) - 499.99$
13 (-) - XBox One X Scorpio - 155 (+2) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

14 (-4) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 161 (+21) - 499.99$

PS4 : 100 + 92 = 192 points (-12) ; XBO : 23 points (+1) ; NS : 48 points (-2)

Overall (without preorders) :

1 - PS4 : 374.0 points (+56.0) ; Month Average : 336.8 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 231.6 points (-19.6) ; Month Average : 288.3 points/day ; 0.86 (-0.01)
3 - XBO : 126.9 points (-21.6) ; Month Average : 270.1 points/day ; 0.80 (-0.03)



Overall (with preorders from last month) :

1 - PS4 : 551.6 points (+56.0) ; Month Average : 514.4 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 166.1 points (-21.6) ; Month Average : 309.3 points/day ; 0.60 (-0.02)
3 - NS : 231.6 points (-19.6) ; Month Average : 288.3 points/day ; 0.56 (-0.01)


Best Buy list has been totally broken for a few days...



09/21/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 18 (+4) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 22 (+3) - 299.99$
3 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 35 (+3) - 299.00$
4 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 53 (-2) - 282.88$
5 (-2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 63 (-33) - 525.00$
6 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 90 (+4) - 585.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 108 + 38 + 11 = 157 points (-44) ; XBO : 48 points (-2) ; NS : 125 + 82 = 207 points (+23)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 23 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 25 (-) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 36 (-) - 299.99$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 41 (-) - 299.99$
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 42 (-) - 399.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Shadow of the Tomb Raider - 56 (-) - 499.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 61 (-) - 299.99$
8 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 83 (-) - 499.99$
9 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Pikachu! Bundle - 86 (-) - 399.99$
10 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Evee! Bundle - 100 (-) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 106 points (-) ; XBO : 70 + 45 + 40 + 18 = 173 points (-) ; NS : 102 + 80 = 182 points (-)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 2 (+1) - 399.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Evee! Bundle - 4 (+2) - 399.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Pikachu! Bundle - 5 (+2) - 399.99$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 7 (+5) - 299.99$
5 (-) - PS4 Pro 2 TB 500 Million - 36 (-5) - Sold out
6 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 37 (-5) - 734.99$ (Out of Stock)
7 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 38 (-4) - 599.99$ (Out of Stock)
8 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 39 (-4) - 499.99$ (Out of Stock)
9 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 55 (-3) - 399.00$
10 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 64 (-4) - 299.99$
11 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 - 95 (+27) - 499.99$
12 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 111 (-5) - 299.99$
13 (-) - XBox One X Scorpio - 163 (-8) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 96 + 88 = 184 points (-8) ; XBO : 19 points (-4) ; NS : 45 points (-3)

Overall (without preorders) :

1 - PS4 : 330.8 points (-43.2) ; Month Average : 336.5 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 247.0 points (+15.4) ; Month Average : 286.2 points/day ; 0.85 (-0.01)
3 - XBO : 119.6 points (-7.3) ; Month Average : 262.6 points/day ; 0.78 (-0.02)

Overall (with preorders from last month) :

1 - PS4 : 508.4 points (-43.2) ; Month Average : 514.1 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 158.8 points (-7.3) ; Month Average : 301.8 points/day ; 0.59 (-0.01)
3 - NS : 247.0 points (+15.4) ; Month Average : 286.2 points/day ; 0.56 (-)


Best Buy list has been totally broken for a few days...



JRPGfan said:
Symbios63 said:
09/18/18 :

Overall (with preorders from last month) :

1 - PS4 : 388.4 points (-6.4) ; Month Average : 513.3 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 169.5 points (+16.4) ; Month Average : 324.9 points/day ; 0.63 (-0.01)
3 - NS : 257.8 points (+12.4) ; Month Average : 293.8 points/day ; 0.57 (-)

Well then... I guess september is already decided.
Spiderman gave the PS4 a easy win this month.

There was no doubt about that.

September and October will be a big win for PS4. November will be a fight tho...



JRPGfan said:
Symbios63 said:
09/18/18 :

Overall (with preorders from last month) :

1 - PS4 : 388.4 points (-6.4) ; Month Average : 513.3 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 169.5 points (+16.4) ; Month Average : 324.9 points/day ; 0.63 (-0.01)
3 - NS : 257.8 points (+12.4) ; Month Average : 293.8 points/day ; 0.57 (-)

Well then... I guess september is already decided.
Spiderman gave the PS4 a easy win this month.

I don't think there was ever any doubt about that.  I'm more curious to see if the X1 will finally be able to beat the Switch.



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I'm sure this has been asked somewhere else in this thread, but I can't be bothered to read 17 pages of comments....

Who is Walmart not included in this prediction tool?



Mar1217 said:
I actually think that a lot of potential buyers for PS4 during subsequent months have already burned themselves with Spidey instead of waiting for October.

I actually think October numbers might be way closer than some might think.
Although, November will be a fight to behold. December is Nintendo territory as usual, specially with Smash launching during that time.

Same thinking here.

And with SMP, TWEWY, Just Dance 2019 and Starlink, there are quite some games this October to boost the Switch that month all while I don't think annualised games like CoD pushing many PS4 anymore

VAMatt said: 
I'm sure this has been asked somewhere else in this thread, but I can't be bothered to read 17 pages of comments....

Who is Walmart not included in this prediction tool?

Walmart and Target were both initially included, but both did not update regularly enough their charts (I think they did on a weekly basis or something like that) to be useful for the statistics here, hence they got cut after a couple weeks.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 23 September 2018

COD Blackout and RDR2 will be huge and will push both PS4 and XB1 sales without doubt. Switch has not much in October to counter that. For November and December, yes, Switch will have ammunition.



globalisateur said:
COD Blackout and RDR2 will be huge and will push both PS4 and XB1 sales without doubt. Switch has not much in October to counter that. For November and December, yes, Switch will have ammunition.

RDR2 yeah, that one will certainly push hardware. CoD though? It's the 6th entry on the console, by now those who wanted to play CoD on PS4/XBO most probably already got one. I do expect a bump, but only enough to keep sales from slumping after AC:O's release the week before - and since Assassin's Creed is also pretty much annualized, it's boost probably ain't so big anymore either.



globalisateur said:
COD Blackout and RDR2 will be huge and will push both PS4 and XB1 sales without doubt. Switch has not much in October to counter that. For November and December, yes, Switch will have ammunition.

Im not sure how much extra hardware a new COD will move, given theres been plenty of COD so far this gen.
The new RDR2 will without a doubt move hardware though.
So yeah that month I see PS4+XB1 getting a boost from it.