Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

Which means the most accurate method is only counting PS4 million points one day (PS4 : 1.00 ; NS : 0.99 ; XBO ; 0.89 (tool) vs NS : 1.00 ; PS4 : 0.97 ; XBO : 0.80 (NPD)).

I guess I will stop taking into account PS4 million in September now and will use the same method for any very limited sku going forward (well, when we are lucky enough to know how limited it is....

I will only be able to update later tonight for today's number and I will try to post summaries for August this WE.



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09/14/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 15 (+5) - 299.00$
2 (+3) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 33 (+55) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 36 (+9) - 299.00$
4 (-2) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 61 (-17) - 282.88$
5 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 64 (-5) - 585.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 86 + 37 = 123 points (+68) ; XBO : 40 points (-24) ; NS : 140 + 80 = 220 points (+43)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 1 (+38) - 299.99$
2 (+3) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 2 (+58) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 3 (+39) - 399.99$
4 (+3) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 4 (+68) - 499.99$
5 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb - 5 (R) - 499.99$
6 (+2) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 6 (+69) - 299.99$
7 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 7 (R) - 299.99$
8 (-2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 8 (+61) - 399.99$
9 (N) - XBox One X 1Tb Shadow of the Tomb Raider - 9 (N) - 499.99$
10 (N) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 13 (N) - 499.99$ - November
11 (-9) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 21 (+20) - 299.99$
12 (N) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 22 (N) - 499.99$ - November
13 (-9) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 30 (+28) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

PS4 : 210 + 200 + 175 = 585 points (+411) ; XBO : 205 + 195 + 190 + 185 + 180 + 170 = 1125 points (+1029) ; NS : 110 + 92 = 202 points (+89)


- Gamestop :

1 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Evee! Bundle - 3 (+2) - 399.99$
2 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Pikachu! Bundle - 4 (+3) - 399.99$
3 (-) - PS4 Pro 2 TB 500 Million - 11 (+2) - Sold out
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 20 (+2) - Sold Out Online
5 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 36 (-) - 734.99$ (Out of Stock)
6 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 38 (-1) - 599.99$ (Out of Stock)
7 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 39 (-1) - 499.99$ (Out of Stock)
8 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 48 (-2) - 299.99$
9 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 79 (-3) - 299.99$
10 (+1) - XBox One X Scorpio - 102 (+22) - 499.99$
11 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 144 (+33) - 299.99$
12 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 145 (R) - 499.99$
13 (-3) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 170 (-81) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

13 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 - 186 (+14) - 499.99$

PS4 : 165 +104 = 269 points ; XBO : 50 + 16 = 66 points (-35) ; NS : 72 + 29 = 101 points (+13)

Sorry guys, I am super busy, point calculations will have to wait.

Best Buy List has been super weird for a few days now...



09/15/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 15 (-) - 299.00$
2 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 34 (+2) - 299.00$
3 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 40 (-7) - 299.99$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 62 (-1) - 282.88$
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 64 (-) - 585.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 72 + 37 = 109 points (-14) ; XBO : 39 points (-1) ; NS : 140 + 84 = 224 points (+4)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 1 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 2 (-) - 299.99$
3 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 3 (+1) - 499.99$
4 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 4 (-1) - 399.99$
5 (+1) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 5 (+1) - 299.99$
6 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb - 6 (-1) - 499.99$
7 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 7 (+1) - 399.99$
8 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 8 (-1) - 299.99$
9 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Shadow of the Tomb Raider - 9 (-) - 499.99$
10 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 20 (+1) - 299.99$
11 (+2) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 25 (+5) - 299.99$
12 (-2) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 51 (-38) - 499.99$ - November

Out of Top 100 :

12 (N) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 22 (N) - 499.99$ - November

PS4 : 210 + 195 + 180 = 585 points (-) ; XBO : 205 + 200 + 190 + 185 + 175 + 170 = 1125 points (-) ; NS : 115 + 102 = 217 points (+15)


- Gamestop :

1 (N) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 2 (N) - 399.99$
2 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Evee! Bundle - 3 (-) - 399.99$
3 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Pikachu! Bundle - 4 (-) - 399.99$
4 (-1) - PS4 Pro 2 TB 500 Million - 40 (-29) - Sold out
5 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 41 (-5) - 734.99$ (Out of Stock)
6 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 42 (-4) - 599.99$ (Out of Stock)
7 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 43 (-4) - 499.99$ (Out of Stock)
8 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 47 (+1) - 299.99$
9 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 88 (-9) - 299.99$
10 (-) - XBox One X Scorpio - 110 (-8) - 499.99$
11 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 148 (-4) - 299.99$
12 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 174 (-29) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 20 (+2) - Sold Out Online
13 (-3) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 170 (-81) - 299.99$

PS4 : 104 points (-165) ; XBO : 46 points (-20) ; NS : 64 + 27 = 91 points (-10)



I wouldn't even bother listing the 500 Million Pro's anymore.



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

Welfare said:
I wouldn't even bother listing the 500 Million Pro's anymore.

Well, they are taking up space in the charts, hence falsifying them by pushing everything else 4 spots down. Better show where they are to clue one in 



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So Shadow of the TR seems on track to bomba. Not even in the top 60 the day after its release on Gamestop. And #30 (PS4) and #62 (XBO) on Amazon.

RotTR already felt very samey compared to TR1, and Shadow didn’t look like it was bringing much new. Think the series has grown stale to many.



pitzy272 said:
So Shadow of the TR seems on track to bomba. Not even in the top 60 the day after its release on Gamestop. And #30 (PS4) and #62 (XBO) on Amazon.

RotTR already felt very samey compared to TR1, and Shadow didn’t look like it was bringing much new. Think the series has grown stale to many.

Watching my daughter play it yesterday, and cant say I was impressed. From my perspective at least I have it in my collection, but I dont think I'll be rushing to play it (havent finished the last one yet).

This one was of my top games to fail this year... I think it will sell ok, but if the suggested cost $75m is correct (I cant believe that for a minute to be honest with you)... then it wouldnt surprise me if there'll be a studio closure with this one.



Making an indie game : Dead of Day!

09/16/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 15 (-) - 299.00$
2 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 25 (+15) - 299.99$
3 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 32 (+2) - 299.00$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 48 (+14) - 282.88$
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 68 (-1) - 585.00$
6 (R) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 75 (R) - 518.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 102 + 33 + 26 = 161 points (+52) ; XBO : 56 points (+17) ; NS : 140 + 88 = 228 points (+4)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 1 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 2 (-) - 299.99$
3 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 3 (-) - 499.99$
4 (+1) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 4 (+1) - 299.99$
5 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb - 5 (+1) - 499.99$
6 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 6 (+1) - 399.99$
7 (-3) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 7 (-3) - 399.99$
8 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Shadow of the Tomb Raider - 8 (+1) - 499.99$
9 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 9 (-1) - 299.99$
10 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 22 (-2) - 299.99$
11 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 27 (-2) - 299.99$
12 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 44 (+7) - 499.99$ - November
13 (N) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 89 (N) - 299.99$ - November

Out of Top 100 :

12 (N) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 22 (N) - 499.99$ - November

PS4 : 210 + 185 + 180 = 575 points (-10) ; XBO : 205 + 200 + 195 + 190 + 175 + 170 = 1135 points (+10) ; NS : 108 + 98 = 206 points (-11)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 2 (-) - 399.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Evee! Bundle - 3 (-) - 399.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Pikachu! Bundle - 6 (-2) - 399.99$
4 (-) - PS4 Pro 2 TB 500 Million - 47 (-7) - Sold out
5 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 48 (-7) - 734.99$ (Out of Stock)
6 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 49 (-7) - 599.99$ (Out of Stock)
7 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 50 (-7) - 499.99$ (Out of Stock)
8 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 73 (-26) - 299.99$
9 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 123 (-35) - 299.99$
10 (-) - XBox One X Scorpio - 172 (-62) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

11 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 148 (-4) - 299.99$
12 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 174 (-29) - 499.99$

PS4 : 78 points (-26) ; XBO : 15 points (-31) ; NS : 39 points (-52)



pitzy272 said:
So Shadow of the TR seems on track to bomba. Not even in the top 60 the day after its release on Gamestop. And #30 (PS4) and #62 (XBO) on Amazon.

RotTR already felt very samey compared to TR1, and Shadow didn’t look like it was bringing much new. Think the series has grown stale to many.

Apparently in the UK its down over 70% compaired to Rise of the Tomb Raider.... if its like that other places (eu, us, ect) than yeah.
US sales dont seem that impressive judgeing from Amazon.



09/17/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 15 (-) - 299.00$
2 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 32 (-) - 299.00$
3 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 41 (-16) - 299.99$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 44 (+4) - 282.88$
5 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 64 (+11) - 525.00$
6 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 66 (+2) - 585.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 70 + 37 + 35 = 142 points (-19) ; XBO : 64 points (+8) ; NS : 140 + 88 = 228 points (-)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 27 (-26) - 299.99$
2 (+58) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 29 (-7) - 299.99$
3 (+8) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 43 (-16) - 299.99$
4 (-2) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 45 (-43) - 299.99$
5 (+3) - XBox One X 1Tb Shadow of the Tomb Raider - 59 (-51) - 499.99$
6 (-2) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 64 (-60) - 299.99$
7 (-4) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 75 (-72) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

5 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb - 5 (+1) - 499.99$
6 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 6 (+1) - 399.99$
7 (-3) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 7 (-3) - 399.99$
9 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 9 (-1) - 299.99
12 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 44 (+7) - 499.99$ - November
13 (N) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 89 (N) - 299.99$ - November

PS4 : 98 points (-477) ; XBO : 62 + 42 + 37 + 26 = 167 points (-968) ; NS : 94 + 66 = 160 points (-46)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 1 (+1) - 399.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Evee! Bundle - 3 (-) - 399.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Pikachu! Bundle - 7 (-1) - 399.99$
4 (-) - PS4 Pro 2 TB 500 Million - 48 (-1) - Sold out
5 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 49 (-1) - 734.99$ (Out of Stock)
6 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 50 (-1) - 599.99$ (Out of Stock)
7 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 51 (-1) - 499.99$ (Out of Stock)
8 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 67 (+6) - 299.99$
9 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 140 (-17) - 299.99$
10 (-) - XBox One X Scorpio - 195 (-23) - 499.99$
11 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 196 (R) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 84 points (+6) ; XBO : 3 points (-12) ; NS : 31 points (-8)