Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

Megiddo said:

NBA 2K19 release is September isn't it? So those should be counted at least I believe.

Also, yeah, Gamestop is way borked. I admit I was 100% wrong as I thought it would go back to normal after 5-7 days. But no, this is now 2+ weeks and there's no movement whatsoever. Something is messed up with those SKUs.

Tomorrow, but I'm wondering what was actually counted for August. The NBA and Fallout bundles shouldn't be counted at all yet and need to be removed and the charts readjusted if they were.



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

Around the Network
Welfare said:
Megiddo said:

NBA 2K19 release is September isn't it? So those should be counted at least I believe.

Also, yeah, Gamestop is way borked. I admit I was 100% wrong as I thought it would go back to normal after 5-7 days. But no, this is now 2+ weeks and there's no movement whatsoever. Something is messed up with those SKUs.

Tomorrow, but I'm wondering what was actually counted for August. The NBA and Fallout bundles shouldn't be counted at all yet and need to be removed and the charts readjusted if they were.

I am counting NBA bundles for this month but I removed them from August when you did point to my attention that they were September releases.

I am still not sure how to handle preorders from previous month. I won't add them the day of release because the charts would become unreadable. I think I will just add them to the average at the end of the month.

Fallout bundles are not counted in September (I just get the ranking to know how many points I should add to October average).



09/11/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 19 (-2) - 299.00$
2 (+2) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 40 (+6) - 282.88$
3 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 41 (-1) - 299.00$
4 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 49 (-8) - 599.99$
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 82 (-16) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

6 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 85 (+2) - TP

PS4 : 54 + 19 = 73 points (-48) ; XBO : 72 points (+12) ; NS : 120 + 70 = 190 points (-12)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 2 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (-) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 12 (-) - 299.99$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 13 (-) - 299.99$
5 (+2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 26 (+24) - 399.99$
6 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 30 (-) - 499.99$
7 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 58 (-24) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

PS4 : 205 + 100 + 43 = 348 points (+7) ; XBO : 150 + 92 = 242 points (-) ; NS : 200 + 155 = 355 points (-)


- Gamestop :

1 (N) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Pikachu! Bundle - 4 (N) - 399.99$
2 (N) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Evee! Bundle - 5 (N) - 399.99$
3 (-1) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 25 (+2) - 299.99$
4 (-1) - PS4 Pro 2 TB 500 Million - 32 (+3) - Sold out
5 (-1) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 33 (+3) - 734.99$ (Out of Stock)
6 (-1) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 35 (+2) - 599.99$ (Out of Stock)
7 (-1) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 36 (+2) - 499.99$ (Out of Stock)
8 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 52 (-) - 299.99$
9 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 76 (+4) - 299.99$
10 (-2) - XBox One X NBA 2K19 - 106 (-33) - 499.99$
11 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 - 154 (-24) - 499.99$
12 (R) - XBox One X Scorpio - 175 (R) - 499.99$
13 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 177 (+8) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 7 (-2) - Sold Out Online
11 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 160 (+24) - 499.99$

PS4 : 135 + 130 + 125 + 125 + 100 = 615 points (-170) ; XBO : 150 + 48 + 13 = 214 points (-9) ; NS : 76 + 12 = 88 points (+8)


Overall (Today, all numbers included) :

1 - PS4 : 743.0 points (-207.0) ; Month Average : 896.9 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 416.0 points (+0.8) ; Month Average : 363.9 points/day ; 0.41 (+0.02)
3 - NS : 311.0 points (-1.8) ; Month Average : 308.7 points/day ; 0.34 (-)

Overall (minus PS4 million) :

1 - PS4 : 228.0 points (-232.0) ; Month Average : 370.9 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 416.0 points (+0.8) ; Month Average : 363.9 points/day ; 0.98 (+0.05)
3 - NS : 311.0 points (-1.8) ; Month Average : 308.7 points/day ; 0.83 (+0.03)



Without the 500M consoles, PS4 sales curve looks like the blueprint of a rollercoaster



Bofferbrauer2 said:
Without the 500M consoles, PS4 sales curve looks like the blueprint of a rollercoaster

Millennium Force



Around the Network

Not sure which of those charts to believe.



At the moment I am believing the first chart, just because I dont see PS4 being just behind MS in September... at the very least it would have a good gap between the two because of Spiderman...



Making an indie game : Dead of Day!

Madword said:
At the moment I am believing the first chart, just because I dont see PS4 being just behind MS in September... at the very least it would have a good gap between the two because of Spiderman...

Yes and no. 

There is one important thing not taken into account in those charts, PS4 has something like 200 points/day (don't remember the exact number, it is somewhere in the thread) due to Spiderman preorders from previous months.

I will consider 4 scenarios for September sales 1) All numbers - previous month preorders, 2) All numbers + previous month preorders, 3) All numbers - PS4 million - previous month preorders, 4) All numbers - PS4 million + previous month preorders.

I know this is a bit difficult to follow but best method will be chosen based on NPD data and hopefully, we will have only one set of data in the future. If I had to guess right now, I would chose number 4.



Symbios63 said:
Madword said:
At the moment I am believing the first chart, just because I dont see PS4 being just behind MS in September... at the very least it would have a good gap between the two because of Spiderman...

Yes and no. 

There is one important thing not taken into account in those charts, PS4 has something like 200 points/day (don't remember the exact number, it is somewhere in the thread) due to Spiderman preorders from previous months.

I will consider 4 scenarios for September sales 1) All numbers - previous month preorders, 2) All numbers + previous month preorders, 3) All numbers - PS4 million - previous month preorders, 4) All numbers - PS4 million + previous month preorders.

I know this is a bit difficult to follow but best method will be chosen based on NPD data and hopefully, we will have only one set of data in the future. If I had to guess right now, I would chose number 4.

Option 4 is definitely the best imo.



DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!

In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

PS4 will dominate September.