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Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

09/10/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 17 (-) - 299.00$
2 (+2) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 40 (+6) - 299.00$
3 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 41 (-6) - 599.99$
4 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 46 (-2) - 282.88$
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 66 (-13) - 299.99$
6 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 85 (+2) - TP

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 70 + 35 + 16 = 121 points (-23) ; XBO : 60 points (-4) ; NS : 130 + 72 = 202 points (+12)


- Best Buy :

1 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 2 (+2) - 299.99$
2 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (+3) - 299.99$
3 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 12 (+1) - 299.99$
4 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 13 (+4) - 299.99$
5 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 30 (+4) - 499.99$
6 (-5) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 34 (-32) - 399.99$
7 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 50 (-9) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

PS4 : 205 + 84 + 52 = 341 points (-129) ; XBO : 150 + 92 = 242 points (+28) ; NS : 200 + 155 = 355 points (+20)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 7 (-2) - Sold Out Online
2 (-) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 27 (-2) - 299.99$
3 (-) - PS4 Pro 2 TB 500 Million - 35 (-1) - Sold out
4 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 36 (-1) - 734.99$ (Out of Stock)
5 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 37 (-1) - 599.99$ (Out of Stock)
6 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 38 (+1) - 499.99$ (Out of Stock)
7 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 52 (+2) - 299.99$
8 (-) - XBox One X NBA 2K19 - 73 (+1) - 499.99$
9 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 80 (+5) - 299.99$
10 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 - 130 (-15) - 499.99$
11 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 160 (+24) - 499.99$
12 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 185 (+2) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 195 + 125 + 125 + 120 + 120 + 100 = 785 points (-8) ; XBO : 145 + 78 = 223 points (-5) ; NS : 72 + 8 = 80 points (+8)


Overall (Today, all numbers included) :

1 - PS4 : 950.0 points (-52.2) ; Month Average : 914.0 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 415.2 points (-3.4) ; Month Average : 358.1 points/day ; 0.39 (-)
3 - NS : 312.6 points (+20.6) ; Month Average : 308.4 points/day ; 0.34 (-)

Overall (minus PS4 million) :

1 - PS4 : 460 points (-47.2) ; Month Average : 386.8 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 415.2 points (-3.4) ; Month Average : 358.1 points/day ; 0.93
3 - NS : 312.6 points (+20.6) ; Month Average : 308.4 points/day ; 0.80



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Wait, what bundles are you counting for Xbox One at GameStop? Those are all preorders sales.



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

NBA 2K19 release is September isn't it? So those should be counted at least I believe.

Also, yeah, Gamestop is way borked. I admit I was 100% wrong as I thought it would go back to normal after 5-7 days. But no, this is now 2+ weeks and there's no movement whatsoever. Something is messed up with those SKUs.



Megiddo said:

NBA 2K19 release is September isn't it? So those should be counted at least I believe.

Also, yeah, Gamestop is way borked. I admit I was 100% wrong as I thought it would go back to normal after 5-7 days. But no, this is now 2+ weeks and there's no movement whatsoever. Something is messed up with those SKUs.

Tomorrow, but I'm wondering what was actually counted for August. The NBA and Fallout bundles shouldn't be counted at all yet and need to be removed and the charts readjusted if they were.



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

Welfare said:
Megiddo said:

NBA 2K19 release is September isn't it? So those should be counted at least I believe.

Also, yeah, Gamestop is way borked. I admit I was 100% wrong as I thought it would go back to normal after 5-7 days. But no, this is now 2+ weeks and there's no movement whatsoever. Something is messed up with those SKUs.

Tomorrow, but I'm wondering what was actually counted for August. The NBA and Fallout bundles shouldn't be counted at all yet and need to be removed and the charts readjusted if they were.

I am counting NBA bundles for this month but I removed them from August when you did point to my attention that they were September releases.

I am still not sure how to handle preorders from previous month. I won't add them the day of release because the charts would become unreadable. I think I will just add them to the average at the end of the month.

Fallout bundles are not counted in September (I just get the ranking to know how many points I should add to October average).



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09/11/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 19 (-2) - 299.00$
2 (+2) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 40 (+6) - 282.88$
3 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 41 (-1) - 299.00$
4 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 49 (-8) - 599.99$
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 82 (-16) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

6 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 85 (+2) - TP

PS4 : 54 + 19 = 73 points (-48) ; XBO : 72 points (+12) ; NS : 120 + 70 = 190 points (-12)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 2 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (-) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 12 (-) - 299.99$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 13 (-) - 299.99$
5 (+2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 26 (+24) - 399.99$
6 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 30 (-) - 499.99$
7 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 58 (-24) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

PS4 : 205 + 100 + 43 = 348 points (+7) ; XBO : 150 + 92 = 242 points (-) ; NS : 200 + 155 = 355 points (-)


- Gamestop :

1 (N) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Pikachu! Bundle - 4 (N) - 399.99$
2 (N) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Evee! Bundle - 5 (N) - 399.99$
3 (-1) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 25 (+2) - 299.99$
4 (-1) - PS4 Pro 2 TB 500 Million - 32 (+3) - Sold out
5 (-1) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 33 (+3) - 734.99$ (Out of Stock)
6 (-1) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 35 (+2) - 599.99$ (Out of Stock)
7 (-1) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 36 (+2) - 499.99$ (Out of Stock)
8 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 52 (-) - 299.99$
9 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 76 (+4) - 299.99$
10 (-2) - XBox One X NBA 2K19 - 106 (-33) - 499.99$
11 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 - 154 (-24) - 499.99$
12 (R) - XBox One X Scorpio - 175 (R) - 499.99$
13 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 177 (+8) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 7 (-2) - Sold Out Online
11 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 160 (+24) - 499.99$

PS4 : 135 + 130 + 125 + 125 + 100 = 615 points (-170) ; XBO : 150 + 48 + 13 = 214 points (-9) ; NS : 76 + 12 = 88 points (+8)


Overall (Today, all numbers included) :

1 - PS4 : 743.0 points (-207.0) ; Month Average : 896.9 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 416.0 points (+0.8) ; Month Average : 363.9 points/day ; 0.41 (+0.02)
3 - NS : 311.0 points (-1.8) ; Month Average : 308.7 points/day ; 0.34 (-)

Overall (minus PS4 million) :

1 - PS4 : 228.0 points (-232.0) ; Month Average : 370.9 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 416.0 points (+0.8) ; Month Average : 363.9 points/day ; 0.98 (+0.05)
3 - NS : 311.0 points (-1.8) ; Month Average : 308.7 points/day ; 0.83 (+0.03)



Without the 500M consoles, PS4 sales curve looks like the blueprint of a rollercoaster



Bofferbrauer2 said:
Without the 500M consoles, PS4 sales curve looks like the blueprint of a rollercoaster

Millennium Force



Not sure which of those charts to believe.



At the moment I am believing the first chart, just because I dont see PS4 being just behind MS in September... at the very least it would have a good gap between the two because of Spiderman...



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