In progress NPD predicting tool

Megiddo

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Megiddo on 30 August 2018

Bofferbrauer2 said:

Besides, from yesterday to today the consoles would have dropped a grand total of 3 spots on Gamestop. That just doesn't work with your theory and calculation as some items dropped more despite still selling.

It does when you understand that a rolling period doesn't just take into effect one day's sales. Some of those that fell more did so because they had sold a lot at the tail end of the rolling period so when that day's numbers were dropped from the rolling period in consideration it in turn dropped in the rankings.

Welfare

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Welfare on 30 August 2018

In real world value, the 500 Million PS4 Pro is going to sell anywhere between 10K-15K (Leaning more towards 15K) since there are only 50K worldwide. It's shouldn't majorly swing the PS4 upwards like the first graph was showing.

Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

Farsala

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Farsala on 30 August 2018

Welfare said:
In real world value, the 500 Million PS4 Pro is going to sell anywhere between 10K-15K (Leaning more towards 15K) since there are only 50K worldwide. It's shouldn't majorly swing the PS4 upwards like the first graph was showing.

10-15k in a single day is massive though. If 200k is the average for the month, then that is 6k per day. So a 10-15k swing would be 16k-21k sold in one day, which is possibly what the graph would be showing. In point value it went from around 350pts to 1100. That is 3 times the sales much like from 6k to 16k-21k.

I guess it still shows that though.

Symbios63

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Symbios63 on 30 August 2018

Megiddo said:

jason1637 said:
Did PS4 fall off a cliff or something?

Nope. Someone requested an illogical change which Symbios for who knows why actually heeded. I would have thought the creator of this algorithmic pattern to be more informed on the factors and what each daily ranking represents (it's not on a single day but rather on a rolling period). Oh well, we'll see how it all shakes out.

Remember that this is still an in progress tool. This is a new situation.

I will give August results with all three methods so we can see which one is the closest from NPD results. There will be no official change untill then.

This tool was and still is built empirically. The august NPD results will tell us the best way to handle those very limited editions in the future (the same way March and April NPD results helped us adjust the formula).

You may totally be right though...so far, I do not favor any method (I know about the rolling period very well but the Gamestop list still feels a bit off...we will see !)

edit : oh, and I will post today update tomorrow, I have numbers but no time ;)

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Symbios63 on 31 August 2018

08/30/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 13 (+9) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 31 (+15) - 299.00$
3 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 49 (+35) - 299.99$
4 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 52 (+3) - 282.88$
5 (R) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 90 (R) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 54 points (+37) ; XBO : 49 + 11 = 60 points (+14) ; NS : 150 + 90 = 240 points (+72) ; PS4 (September) : 0 point (-)

- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 2 (+3) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (+3) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 7 (-) - 399.99$
4 (R) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 8 (R) - 499.99$ (Out of Stock)
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 20 (+1) - 299.99$
6 (-2) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 21 (-2) - 299.99$
7 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 33 (+9) - 499.99$
8 (-1) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 88 (-10) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 205 + 180 + 175 = 560 points (+190) ; NS : 200 + 110 = 310 points (+5) ; XBO : 115 + 86 + 13 = 214 points (+13) ; PS4 (September) : 0 points (-)

- Gamestop :

1 (R) - Playstation 4 Pro Spiderman Bundle - 10 (R) - 399.99$
2 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 500 Million Ultimate Bundle - 14 (-1) - Sold out
3 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 21 (-2) - 499.99$
4 (-1) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 41 (-3) - 734.99$ (Out of Stock)
5 (-1) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 42 (-3) - 599.99$ (Out of Stock)
6 (-1) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 43 (-3) - 499.99$ (Out of Stock)
7 (N) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 - 50 (N) - 499.99$
8 (+4) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb - 86 (+93) - 399.99$
9 (-) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 95 (+8) - 299.99$
10 (-3) - Xbox One X 1Tb - 99 (-7) - 499.99$
11 (-3) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 103 (-5) - 299.99$
12 (-2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 118 (-13) - 299.99$
13 (-7) - Xbox One X Scorpio - 120 (-73) - 499.99$
14 (-3) - XBox One X 1 NBA 2K19 - 139 (-21) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

13 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 182 (-17) - 299.99$

PS4 : 180 + 110 + 110 + 108 + 66 + 42 = 616 points (+28) ; XBO : 160 + 52 + 41 = 253 points (-76) ; NS : 49 points (-15) ; PS4 (September) : 190 points (+190)

Symbios63

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Symbios63 on 31 August 2018

08/31/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 13 (-) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 27 (+4) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 37 (+12) - 299.99$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 43 (+9) - 282.88$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 91 (-1) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 78 points (+24) ; XBO : 66 + 10 = 76 points (+26) ; NS : 150 + 98 = 248 points (+8) ; PS4 (September) : 0 point (-)

- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 1 (+1) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 2 (+1) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 4 (+3) - 399.99$
4 (+2) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 14 (+7) - 299.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 17 (+3) - 299.99$
6 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 27 (+6) - 499.99$
7 (+1) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 58 (+30) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

4 (R) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 8 (R) - 499.99$ (Out of Stock)

PS4 : 210 + 195 = 405 points (-155) ; NS : 205 + 145 = 350 points (+40) ; XBO : 130 + 98 + 43 = 271 points (+57) ; PS4 (September) : 0 points (-)

- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro Spiderman Bundle - 7 (+3) - 399.99$
2 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 29 (-8) - 499.99$
3 (+4) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 - 32 (+18) - 499.99$
4 (-2) - Playstation 4 Pro 500 Million Ultimate Bundle - 36 (-22) - Sold out
5 (-1) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 37 (+4) - 734.99$ (Out of Stock)
6 (-1) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 38 (+4) - 599.99$ (Out of Stock)
7 (-1) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 39 (+4) - 499.99$ (Out of Stock)
8 (+1) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 79 (+16) - 299.99$
9 (+2) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 98 (+5) - 299.99$
10 (+2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 112 (+6) - 299.99$
11 (-1) - Xbox One X 1Tb - 140 (-41) - 499.99$
12 (-4) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb - 155 (-69) - 399.99$
13 (N) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 185 (N) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

13 (-7) - Xbox One X Scorpio - 120 (-73) - 499.99$
14 (-3) - XBox One X 1 NBA 2K19 - 139 (-21) - 499.99$

PS4 : 125 + 120 + 120 + 115 + 45 + 23 = 548 points (-70) ; XBO : 140 + 31 + 8 = 179 points (-74) ; NS : 54 points (+5) ; PS4 (September) : 195 points (+5)

Overall (Today, all numbers included) :

1 - PS4 : 691.4 points ; Month Average : 448.0 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 322.4 points ; Month Average : 311.4 points/day ; 0.70
3 - XBO : 382.2 points ; Month Average : 284.8 points/day ; 0.64

Symbios63

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Symbios63 on 01 September 2018

09/01/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 16 (-3) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 25 (+2) - 299.00$
3 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 36 (+7) - 282.88$
4 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 48 (-11) - 299.99$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 94 (-3) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 56 points (-22) ; XBO : 80 + 7 = 87 points (+11) ; NS : 135 + 102 = 237 points (-11) ; PS4 (September) : 0 point (-)

- Best Buy :

1 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 1 (+1) - 299.99$
2 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 2 (-1) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 6 (-2) - 399.99$
4 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 10 (+7) - 299.99$
5 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 12 (+2) - 299.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 24 (+3) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

7 (+1) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 58 (+30) - 499.99$

PS4 : 205 + 185 = 390 points (-15) ; NS : 210 + 155 = 365 points (+15) ; XBO : 165 + 104 = 269 points (-2) ; PS4 (September) : 0 points (-)

- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro Spiderman Bundle - 5 (+2) - 399.99$
2 (+2) - Playstation 4 Pro 500 Million Ultimate Bundle - 17 (+19) - Sold out
3 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 - 28 (+4) - 499.99$
4 (+1) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 36 (+1) - 734.99$ (Out of Stock)
5 (+1) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 37 (+1) - 599.99$ (Out of Stock)
6 (+1) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 38 (+1) - 499.99$ (Out of Stock)
7 (+1) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 64 (+15) - 299.99$
8 (+2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 86 (+26) - 299.99$
9 (+3) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb - 106 (+49) - 399.99$
10 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 111 (-13) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

2 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 29 (-8) - 499.99$
11 (-1) - Xbox One X 1Tb - 140 (-41) - 499.99$
13 (N) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 185 (N) - 499.99$

PS4 : 170 + 125 + 120 + 120 + 66 + 47 = 648 points (+100) ; XBO : 0 point (-179) ; NS : 45 points (-9) ; PS4 (September) : 200 points (+5)

Overall (Today, all numbers included) :

1 - PS4 : 770.8 points (+79.4) ; Month Average : 459.5 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 307.6 points (-14.8) ; Month Average : 311.3 points/day ; 0.68
3 - XBO : 160.4 points (-221.8) ; Month Average : 280.3 points/day ; 0.61

I will do the point calculation for today and tomorrow on monday.

Not a good day for XBO...

When does "NPD September" start ?