Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

September NPD tracking is September 2nd to October 6th.



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

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09/02/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 17 (-1) - 299.00$
2 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 30 (+6) - 282.88$
3 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 31 (-6) - 299.00$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 46 (+2) - 299.99$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 91 (+3) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 60 points (+4) ; XBO : 92 + 10 = 102 points (+15) ; NS : 130 + 90 = 220 points (-17)


- Best Buy :

1 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 1 (+1) - 299.99$
2 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 2 (-1) - 299.99$
3 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 10 (-) - 299.99$
4 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 11 (+1) - 299.99$
5 (-2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 15 (-9) - 399.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 29 (-5) - 499.99$
7 (R) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 83 (R) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 210 + 140 = 350 points (-40) ; XBO : 165 + 94 + 18 = 277 points (+8) ; NS : 205 + 160 = 365 points (-)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro Spiderman Bundle - 5 (-) - 399.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 500 Million Ultimate Bundle - 17 (-) - Sold out
3 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 - 28 (-) - 499.99$
4 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 36 (-) - 734.99$ (Out of Stock)
5 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 37 (-) - 599.99$ (Out of Stock)
6 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 38 (-) - 499.99$ (Out of Stock)
7 (-) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 64 (-) - 299.99$
8 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 86 (-) - 299.99$
9 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb - 106 (-) - 399.99$
10 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 111 (-) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 200 + 170 + 125 + 120 + 120 + 66 + 47 = 848 points (-) ; XBO : 88 points (+88) ; NS : 45 points (-)

Overall (Today, all numbers included) :

1 - PS4 : 966.0 points ; Month Average : 966.0 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 294.0 points ; Month Average : 294.0 points/day ; 0.30
3 - XBO : 292.5 points ; Month Average : 292.5 points/day ; 0.30

PS4 is at 431.0 if we don't take million edition into account...

Last edited by Symbios63 - on 03 September 2018

August Summaries :

1) All numbers included

Amazon : 1) NS : 221.3 points/day ; 2) XBO : 51.6 points/day ; 3) PS4 : 47.1 points/day
Best Buy : 1) NS : 346.2 points/day ; 2) XBO : 290.7 points/day ; 3) PS4 : 281.4 points/day
Gamestop : 1) PS4 : 365.5 points/day ; 2) XBO : 116.2 points/day ; 3) NS : 65.0 points/day

Overall : 1) PS4 : 459.5 points/day (1.00) ; 2) NS : 311.3 points/day (0.68) ; 3) XBO : 280.3 points/day (0.61)


2) No more than 2 days for PS4 million

Amazon : 1) NS : 221.3 points/day ; 2) XBO : 51.6 points/day ; 3) PS4 : 47.1 points/day
Best Buy : 1) NS : 346.2 points/day ; 2) XBO : 290.7 points/day ; 3) PS4 : 281.4 points/day
Gamestop : 1) PS4 : 251.5 points/day ; 2) XBO : 116.2 points/day ; 3) NS : 65.0 points/day

Overall : 1) PS4 : 345.5 points/day (1.00) ; 2) NS : 311.3 points/day (0.90) ; 3) XBO : 280.3 points/day (0.81)


3) No more than 1 day for PS4 million

Amazon : 1) NS : 221.3 points/day ; 2) XBO : 51.6 points/day ; 3) PS4 : 47.1 points/day
Best Buy : 1) NS : 346.2 points/day ; 2) XBO : 290.7 points/day ; 3) PS4 : 273.9 points/day
Gamestop : 1) PS4 : 223.1 points/day ; 2) XBO : 116.2 points/day ; 3) NS : 65.0 points/day

Overall : 1) PS4 : 315.6 points/day (1.00) ; 2) NS : 311.3 points/day (0.99) ; 3) XBO : 280.3 points/day (0.89)

Last edited by Symbios63 - on 18 September 2018

September accumulated pre order points :

PS4 : 6214.8 (Spiderman Bundle)
XBO : 1371.5 (NBA 2K bundle)
NS : 0

How many days during the "NPD September period" ?



Symbios63 said:
September accumulated pre order points :

PS4 : 6214.8 (Spiderman Bundle)
XBO : 1371.5 (NBA 2K bundle)
NS : 0

How many days during the "NPD September period" ?

35



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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What an odd month August was.



ironmanDX said:
What an odd month August was.

I can't wait to see the results.  There is gonna be blood in these forums lol



If the trend of the X1 being a little bit undertracked by the tool keeps up that means the X1 and the NS are gonna be virtually tied in august. 

Man, this is gonna be good.



Symbios63 said:
August Summaries :

1) All numbers included

Amazon : 1) NS : 221.3 points/day ; 2) XBO : 51.6 points/day ; 3) PS4 : 47.1 points/day
Best Buy : 1) NS : 346.2 points/day ; 2) XBO : 290.7 points/day ; 3) PS4 : 281.4 points/day
Gamestop : 1) PS4 : 365.5 points/day ; 2) XBO : 116.2 points/day ; 3) NS : 65.0 points/day

Overall : 1) PS4 : 459.5 points/day (1.00) ; 2) NS : 311.3 points/day (0.68) ; 3) XBO : 280.3 points/day (0.61)


2) No more than 2 days for PS4 million

Amazon : 1) NS : 221.3 points/day ; 2) XBO : 51.6 points/day ; 3) PS4 : 47.1 points/day
Best Buy : 1) NS : 346.2 points/day ; 2) XBO : 290.7 points/day ; 3) PS4 : 281.4 points/day
Gamestop : 1) PS4 : 251.5 points/day ; 2) XBO : 116.2 points/day ; 3) NS : 65.0 points/day

Overall : 1) PS4 : 345.5 points/day (1.00) ; 2) NS : 311.3 points/day (0.90) ; 3) XBO : 280.3 points/day (0.81)


3) No more than 1 day for PS4 million

Amazon : 1) NS : 221.3 points/day ; 2) XBO : 51.6 points/day ; 3) PS4 : 47.1 points/day
Best Buy : 1) NS : 346.2 points/day ; 2) XBO : 290.7 points/day ; 3) PS4 : 273.9 points/day
Gamestop : 1) PS4 : 223.1 points/day ; 2) XBO : 116.2 points/day ; 3) NS : 65.0 points/day

Overall : 1) PS4 : 315.6 points/day (1.00) ; 2) NS : 311.3 points/day (0.99) ; 3) XBO : 280.3 points/day (0.89)

It will become very interesting to see which one is the good one. When will be NPD?

chakkra said:
ironmanDX said:
What an odd month August was.

I can't wait to see the results.  There is gonna be blood in these forums lol

Yeah, with this, it can go either way, everybody has a shot depending on the graph.

chakkra said:

If the trend of the X1 being a little bit undertracked by the tool keeps up that means the X1 and the NS are gonna be virtually tied in august. 

Man, this is gonna be good.

And if the third graphic (only one day of sales for the 500M PS4 Pro) applies, this goes for all of them. Tous dans un mouchoir de poche!



09/03/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 16 (+1) - 299.00$
2 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 33 (-2) - 299.00$
3 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 35 (-5) - 282.88$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 55 (-9) - 299.99$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 99 (-8) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 46 points (-14) ; XBO : 82 + 2 = 84 points (-18) ; NS : 135 + 86 = 221 points (+1)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 1 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 2 (-) - 299.99$
3 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 9 (+2) - 299.99$
4 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 10 (-) - 299.99$
5 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 22 (+7) - 499.99$
6 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 29 (-14) - 399.99$
7 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 86 (-3) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 210 + 94 = 304 points (-46) ; XBO : 165 + 108 + 15 = 288 points (+11) ; NS : 205 + 160 = 375 points (+10)


- Gamestop :

1 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 500 Million Ultimate Bundle - 10 (+7) - Sold out
2 (+2) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 31 (+5) - 734.99$ (Out of Stock)
3 (+2) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 32 (+5) - 599.99$ (Out of Stock)
4 (+2) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 34 (+4) - 499.99$ (Out of Stock)
5 (+2) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 53 (+11) - 299.99$
6 (+2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 74 (+12) - 299.99$
7 (-4) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 - 75 (-47) - 499.99$
8 (+2) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 90 (+21) - 299.99$
9 (R) - XBox One X NBA 2K19 - 114 (R) - 499.99$
10 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb - 200 (-94) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro Spiderman Bundle - 5 (-) - 399.99$

PS4 : 190 + 135 + 135 + 130 + 78 + 1 = 669 points (-179) ; XBO : 98 + 44 = 142 points (-) ; NS : 62 points (+17)

Overall (Today, all numbers included) :

1 - PS4 : 766.6 points (-199.4) ; Month Average : 866.3 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 346.8 points (+54.3) ; Month Average : 319.7 points/day ; 0.37 (+0.07) 
3 - NS : 313.8 points (+19.8) ; Month Average : 303.9 points/day ; 0.35 (+0.05) 

PS4 is at 197.0 if we don't take million edition into account...

Last edited by Symbios63 - on 03 September 2018