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Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

Switch and PS4 sure seem competitive. The strong finish for June with Mario Tennis, Crash, Ys, Wolfenstein, Fortnite, Paladins, etc seems to have helped a lot. But man...poor Xbox.



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06/28/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 5 (-) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 17 (-) - 299.00$
3 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 39 (+4) - 448.95$ (-36.05$)
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 58 (+3) - TP
5 (R) - XBox One S 500 Gb White - 96 (R) - 199.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 43 points (+3) ; XBO : 74 + 5 = 79 points (+13) ; NS : 190 + 130 = 320 points (-)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 2 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (+3) - 299.00$
3 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Days of Play - 4 (+5) - 299.99$
4 (-1) - XBox One S 500 Gb White - 7 (+1) - 199.00$ (-80.00)
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 13 (+1) - 299.00$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 16 (+5) - 499.99$
7 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 25 (+13) - 299.99$
8 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 32 (-4) - 299.99$
9 (R) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 74 (R) - 399.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 205 + 195 + 27 = 427 points (+52) ; XBO : 180 + 135 + 102 + 88 = 505 points (+48) ; NS : 200 + 150 = 350 points (+20)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Days of Play - 14 (+4) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 32 (-) - 399.00$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 43 (+5) - 299.00$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 76 (+10) - 299.00$
5 (+1) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 125 (-1) - 499.99$
6 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 129 (-24) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 180 + 135 + 36 = 351 points (-2) ; XBO : 38 points (-1) ; NS : 108 + 76 = 184 points (+14)

Overall (Today) :

1 - PS4 : 470.8 points (+10.8) ; Month Average : 486.3 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 510.0 points (+18.0) ; Month Average : 387.8 points/day ; 0.80 (+0.01)
3 - XBO : 202.2 points (+19.0) ; Month Average : 267.6 points/day ; 0.55 (-0.01)



Symbios63 said:
06/28/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 5 (-) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 17 (-) - 299.00$
3 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 39 (+4) - 448.95$ (-36.05$)
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 58 (+3) - TP
5 (R) - XBox One S 500 Gb White - 96 (R) - 199.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 43 points (+3) ; XBO : 74 + 5 = 79 points (+13) ; NS : 190 + 130 = 320 points (-)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 2 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (+3) - 299.00$
3 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Days of Play - 4 (+5) - 299.99$
4 (-1) - XBox One S 500 Gb White - 7 (+1) - 199.00$ (-80.00)
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 13 (+1) - 299.00$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 16 (+5) - 499.99$
7 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 25 (+13) - 299.99$
8 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 32 (-4) - 299.99$
9 (R) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 74 (R) - 399.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 205 + 195 + 27 = 427 points (+52) ; XBO : 180 + 135 + 102 + 88 = 505 points (+48) ; NS : 200 + 150 = 350 points (+20)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Days of Play - 14 (+4) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 32 (-) - 399.00$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 43 (+5) - 299.00$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 76 (+10) - 299.00$
5 (+1) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 125 (-1) - 499.99$
6 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 129 (-24) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 180 + 135 + 36 = 351 points (-2) ; XBO : 38 points (-1) ; NS : 108 + 76 = 184 points (+14)

Overall (Today) :

1 - PS4 : 470.8 points (+10.8) ; Month Average : 486.3 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 510.0 points (+18.0) ; Month Average : 387.8 points/day ; 0.80 (+0.01)
3 - XBO : 202.2 points (+19.0) ; Month Average : 267.6 points/day ; 0.55 (-0.01)

Isn't this a mile stone of sorts ? If I am not mistaken, this is the first time (using the current weighting sytem) that the Nintendo switch sales position trend line has crossed the PS4 average sales trend line ?

Now to see how long it can hold that for before the NPD period for June ends.



It's gonna be lose between switch and ps4 this month.



06/29/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 6 (-1) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 18 (-1) - 299.00$
3 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 41 (-2) - 448.95$ (-36.05$)
4 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 89 (R) - 299.30$
5 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 97 (-39) - TP

Out of Top 100 :

5 (R) - XBox One S 500 Gb White - 96 (R) - 199.00$

PS4 : 4 points (-39) ; XBO : 70 + 12 = 82 points (+3) ; NS : 185 + 125 = 310 points (-10)


- Best Buy :

1 (+2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Days of Play - 1 (+3) - 299.99$
2 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 2 (-) - 299.99$
3 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 4 (-1) - 299.00$
4 (-) - XBox One S 500 Gb White - 8 (-1) - 199.00$ (-80.00)
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 14 (-1) - 299.00$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 18 (-2) - 499.99$
7 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 34 (-2) - 299.99$
8 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 37 (-12) - 299.99$
9 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 42 (+32) - 399.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 210 + 205 + 68 = 483 points (+56) ; XBO : 175 + 125 + 84 + 78 = 462 points (-43) ; NS : 195 + 145 = 340 points (-10)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Days of Play - 20 (-6) - 299.99$
2 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 44 (-1) - 299.00$
3 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 46 (-14) - 399.00$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 87 (-11) - 299.00$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 125 (-) - 499.99$
6 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 140 (-11) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 165 + 106 + 31 = 302 points (-49) ; XBO : 38 points (-) ; NS : 108 + 64 = 172 points (-12)

Overall (Today) :

1 - PS4 : 401.8 points (-69.0) ; Month Average : 483.0 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 488.0 points (-22.0) ; Month Average : 391.6 points/day ; 0.81 (+0.01)
3 - XBO : 196.0 points (-6.2) ; Month Average : 264.9 points/day ; 0.55 (-)



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Switch on the way to lead july npd.



JSG87 said:
It's gonna be lose between switch and ps4 this month.

Nah, both PS4 and XOne got E3 sales and Switch didn't. I expect Switch to be last place but will be close to XOne.

July will be a different story, however. 



Switch crawling closer and closer to the PS4

p0isonparadise said: 
JSG87 said: 
It's gonna be lose between switch and ps4 this month.

Nah, both PS4 and XOne got E3 sales and Switch didn't. I expect Switch to be last place but will be close to XOne.

July will be a different story, however. 

Look at the chart above

The ratio was spot on in both months this thread existed for PS4 and Switch.

XBO was a bit higher than predicted by the numbers here, but the gap is just too big to bridge even if XBO sales would ge strongly underestimated here. It did very well for the duration of the promo, but slumped back to distant third after it ended.

Switch is selling really well for about 2 weeks now and consistently above PS4 in the dailies.

PS4 sales are slowing down, at least the points are pointing downwards. Not just for the end of this month, but compared to the 2 previous ones as well. However, it started the month well above it's competitors and the Days of Play PS4 further boosted sales early on.

All in all thre PS4 should win the month due to it's strong first half. Switch is coming much closer as one could have expected 2 weeks ago, having a really strong finish. XBO did well as long as the promo lasted, but outside of it it's sales are way too low to compete with the other 2 anymore.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 29 June 2018

JSG87 said:
It's gonna be lose between switch and ps4 this month.

Nah look at the monthly.... PS4 @483  > NSW @391 > XB1 @264.
Its set at this point, PS4 takes it.

The thing is with the dailies where the Switch is currently higher than the PS4..... the next month could be the Switch's.

Symbios63 said:
06/29/18 :

Overall (Today) :

1 - PS4 : 401.8 points (-69.0) ; Month Average : 483.0 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 488.0 points (-22.0) ; Month Average : 391.6 points/day ; 0.81 (+0.01)
3 - XBO : 196.0 points (-6.2) ; Month Average : 264.9 points/day ; 0.55 (-)



JRPGfan said:
JSG87 said:
It's gonna be lose between switch and ps4 this month.

Nah look at the monthly.... PS4 @483  > NSW @391 > XB1 @264.
Its set at this point, PS4 takes it.

The thing is with the dailies where the Switch is currently higher than the PS4..... the next month could be the Switch's.

Symbios63 said:
06/29/18 :

Overall (Today) :

1 - PS4 : 401.8 points (-69.0) ; Month Average : 483.0 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 488.0 points (-22.0) ; Month Average : 391.6 points/day ; 0.81 (+0.01)
3 - XBO : 196.0 points (-6.2) ; Month Average : 264.9 points/day ; 0.55 (-)

No, look at the change in ratio over the last 8 days, Switch went from .70 to .81

There are still 8 days left in the June NPD tracking period so if the current trend continues Switch could reach .90

So ya its looking like it will be a pretty close month.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.