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Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

11/08/18 :


- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 11 (-) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 29 (-) - 399.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 36 (+9) - 299.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 94 points (-) ; XBO : 0 point (-) ; NS : 160 + 80 = 240 points (+18)


- Best Buy :

1 (+2) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 1 (+2) - 359.99$
2 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 2 (-1) - 399.99$
3 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 3 (-1) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 5 (-) - 299.99$
5 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 6 (+3) - 299.99$
6 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 7 (-1) - 299.99$
7 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 12 (-) - 499.99$
8 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 17 (-2) - 299.99$
9 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb - 19 (-) - 499.99$
10 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 23 (+1) - 299.99$
11 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Shadow of the Tomb Raider - 54 (-1) - 499.99$
12 (-) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 58 (-2) - 299.99$
13 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 71 (+2) - 499.99$
14 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu! - 93 (+2) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 205 + 200 + 155 = 560 points (-10) ; XBO : 180 + 120 + 106 + 47 + 43 + 30 = 526 points (-4) ; NS : 210 + 190 + 185 + 130 + 8 = 723 points (+17)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 2 (+1)
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 15 (+4)
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Diablo III EC - 20 (+5)
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 70 (+7)
5 (+3) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 75 (+48)
6 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 84 (+18)
7 (-2) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 92 (+4)
8 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 107 (+5)
9 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 154 (+2)
10 (R) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 182 (R)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 82 + 68 + 24 = 174 points (+27) ; XBO : 76 + 47 = 123 points (+39) ; NS : 210 + 175 + 165 + 60 + 10 = 620 points (+44)

Overall (with preorders from last months) :

1 - NS : 1368.7 points (+61.8) ; Month Average : 1288.8 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 345.3 points (+49.7) ; Month Average : 451.8 points/day ; 0.35 (-0.02)
3 - PS4 : 361.2 points (+25.0) ; Month Average : 356.6 points/day ; 0.28 (-)



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Megiddo said:
globalisateur said:
Guys what's your opinion about the odd result given by the tool compared to many people expectation the month of RDR2 ? Sony have the marketing deal but they are going to sell less than the others ?

I think the tool can be easily gamed by flooding SKUs as seen with Xbox's huge spike not too long ago. I also think that GameStop's rankings are not the most reliable and may result in high price SKUs staying top ranked for far longer than they should be, as seen with the special anniversary PS4 which was inexplicably still charting very high in the rankings even 2 weeks after it was completely sold out.

I still think Gamestop’s website rank their products on page view and not on actual sales.

As for multiple skus, why not do an average based on the number of skus during holidays or special promotions period ?



Thus far the tool has been quite good. There's no real need to make any big changes to the formula. My observations are only possible reasons that there might be a large discrepancy for October. It's fully possible that the tool is on the money yet again in that the Switch blew everything else away for the month and PS4/X1 were fighting for a distant 2nd.



11/09/18 :


- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 10 (+1) - 299.00$
2 (N) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Evee! - 25 (N) - 399.99$
3 (N) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu! - 28 (N) - 399.99$
4 (-2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 36 (-7) - 399.99$
5 (-2) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 38 (-2) - 299.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 80 points (-14) ; XBO : 0 point (-) ; NS : 165 + 102 + 96 + 76 = 439 points (+199)


- Best Buy :

1 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 2 (+1) - 399.99$
2 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 2 (+1) - 299.99$
3 (-2) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 3 (-2) - 359.99$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 5 (-) - 299.99$
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 6 (-) - 299.99$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 7 (-) - 299.99$
7 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 12 (-) - 499.99$
8 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 17 (-) - 299.99$
9 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb - 19 (-) - 499.99$
10 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 25 (-2) - 299.99$
11 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Shadow of the Tomb Raider - 53 (+1) - 499.99$
12 (-) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 54 (+4) - 299.99$
13 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 71 (-) - 499.99$
14 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu! - 92 (+1) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 210 + 205 + 155 = 570 points (+10) ; XBO : 180 + 120 + 102 + 48 + 47 + 30 = 527 points (+1) ; NS : 200 + 190 + 185 + 130 + 9 = 714 points (-9)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 2 (-)
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 15 (-)
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Diablo III EC - 19 (+1)
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 69 (+1)
5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 81 (-6)
6 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 94 (-10)
7 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 114 (-7)
8 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 115 (-23)
9 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 173 (-19)
10 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 183 (-1)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 82 + 58 + 14 = 154 points (-20) ; XBO : 70 + 44 = 114 points (-9) ; NS : 210 + 175 + 165 + 43 + 9 = 602 points (-18)

Overall (with preorders from last months) :

1 - NS : 1508.1 points (+139.4) ; Month Average : 1320.1 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 333.8 points (-11.5) ; Month Average : 434.9 points/day ; 0.33 (-0.02)
3 - PS4 : 332.0 points (-29.2) ; Month Average : 353.1 points/day ; 0.27 (-0.01)



If this tool is accurate...oh boy



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XBO an PS4 the same and the switch is entering holidays mode. Can the swich surpass the 1m+ sold this month?



MasonADC said:
If this tool is accurate...oh boy

It's still early in the month.  I bet most PS4/XB1 shoppers are waiting for the Black Friday deals, which are better for those consoles than Switch



Switch: SW-3707-5131-3911
XBox: Kenjabish

kenjab said:
MasonADC said:
If this tool is accurate...oh boy

It's still early in the month.  I bet most PS4/XB1 shoppers are waiting for the Black Friday deals, which are better for those consoles than Switch

Even then, being in first by three times the closer competitor is a really strong start. We also have October results to look forward too



What would be the incentive of anyone buying any console now when you can get better deals in two weeks? While the numbers may be large for switch, I'm sure actual volume sold is small. online sales pale in comparison to brick and mortar retail, especially this time of year.



Train wreck said:
What would be the incentive of anyone buying any console now when you can get better deals in two weeks? While the numbers may be large for switch, I'm sure actual volume sold is small. online sales pale in comparison to brick and mortar retail, especially this time of year.

Looking at previous years, it is not like sales just tank in the first two weeks of November.