Yeah, that will probably be a problem for this tool.

In November, the volume of sales is much larger in the second half of the month which the tool, in its current form, will not take into account... But in any case, this year will help us for next year :)      Maybe we will have to increase the point value in the last 2 weeks of the month, we will see.

Nothing we can do about a possible discrepancy between brick and mortar and online though... If the relative amount of PS4/XBO/NS sold online is different from the one observed in brick and mortar, this tool will be dead wrong...

last year switch was killing ps4/xb online till black friday, and it was destroyed in sales. anyway i don't put too much stock in this tool, i'll just wait for NPD. 

Last years November Switch sold 800k With no significant releases in the month outside of Xenoblade Chronicles 2 late in the period and Odyssey in the month before.

This year there's Pokemon and the upcoming Smash which surely should drive hardware at a higer rate. Not to mention all the bundles availible around BF. I would be hugely surprised if it did not reach 1M this November.

Based on what?

The tool hasn't been drastically wrong yet, so I don't know why you wouldn't trust it. We'll see how October looks before we should lose trust in the tool

I remember the Amazon thread from last year seemed to suggest a Switch victory, but when the NPD came around PS4 won.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/dev2016/post.php?id=8633395 - 21st before blackfriday, shows Switch leading month on amazon.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8638443 - 25th day after blackfriday, shows ps4 winning on amazon.

Yeah obviously, but it's been well established by now that Amazon is not soleley a good predictor of anything. Thus I assume Rick has some sort of other source that Switch was killing PS4 and Xbox for the entire month prior to BF.  

It wasn't well established back then, November 2017 was one of the few months that Amazon did not agree to NPD.  And even the best this site has didn't have another source, why would you think Rick would have one?

What I am saying is we dont know if the Switch was crushing PS4 or Xbox at the time. What people thought then, means nothing when making a statement today with the knowledge we have now.

Clearly Rick does not have any other source. I just wanted to see him say he was using Amazon which would be amusing.

We have to let the tool do its job and amend AFTER the results come in to work out what the normality of it is. Otherwise the baseline will never be right.

To me the tool is showing precisely what happened last year, switch was ahead and then Black Friday comes along and PS4/Xbox will sell more (we assume).. So the only thing the tool may not get right is the actual gap, i.e the total number of sales might be lower and the gap doesn't make much difference at this point.