By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

Mar1217 said:
I know he isn't there but I should say it :

"This trajectory from Xbone is litteraly a cliff !"

Lol. Where is ol' CliffRick anyway? Been kinda silent lately 



Around the Network
PortisheadBiscuit said:
Mar1217 said:
I know he isn't there but I should say it :

"This trajectory from Xbone is litteraly a cliff !"

Lol. Where is ol' CliffRick anyway? Been kinda silent lately 

In the middle of a 10 day ban for baiting/trolling.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

Lol. Where is ol' CliffRick anyway? Been kinda silent lately 

In the middle of a 10 day ban for baiting/trolling.

Lol oh dear



Symbios63 said:
October Summaries :

1) With Preorders from last months included (119.7 points/day for PS4 ; 67.0 points/day for XBO ; 196.1 points/day for NS)

Amazon : 1) NS : 223.7 points/day ; 2) PS4 : 35.6 points/day ; 3) XBO : 9.5 points/day
Best Buy : 1) PS4 : 261.1 points/day ; 2) NS : 252.9 points/day ; 3) XBO : 193.9 points/day
Gamestop : 1) NS : 433.9 points/day ; 2) XBO : 376.6 points/day ; 3) PS4 : 364.9 points/day


Overall : 1) NS : 859.6 points/day (1.00) ; 2) XBO : 657.0 points/day (0.74) ; 3) PS4 : 565.3 points/day (0.66)



2) Without preorders :

Overall : 1) NS : 663.5 points/day (1.00) ; 2) XBO : 570.0 points/day (0.86) ; 3) PS4 : 445.6 points/day (0.67)

I did remove the points from the November XBO Fallout 76 bundle which will be counted as preorders for November (it does not change things much).

Looks like #1 Switch, #2 XB1, #3 PS4. 

But XB1 and PS4 are so close, I wouldn't be surprised if they swapped places in the final NPD results, especially when you consider how much the XB1 was wildly swinging around the chart in October.  It will be interesting to see if the tool still gets the order right anyway.



PortisheadBiscuit said:
Mar1217 said:
I know he isn't there but I should say it :

"This trajectory from Xbone is litteraly a cliff !"

Lol. Where is ol' CliffRick anyway? Been kinda silent lately 

I'd want to stay away from the site if I was relentlessly targeted.

VGC figures only have 2 weeks so far, but it's already a massive discrepancy (is october a 4 week npd?) VGC has the ratio at 1:0.66 in favour of PS4 over Switch. Has there ever been such a colossal difference between the two before?

Won't be long and we can see if this tool has defeated the site it's hosted on or not.

Last edited by Barkley - on 05 November 2018

Around the Network
Barkley said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

Lol. Where is ol' CliffRick anyway? Been kinda silent lately 

I'd want to stay away from the site if I was relentlessly targeted.

VGC figures only have 2 weeks so far, but it's already a massive discrepancy (is october a 4 week npd?) VGC has the ratio at 1:0.66 in favour of PS4 over Switch. Has there ever been such a colossal difference between the two before?

Won't be long and we can see if this tool has defeated the site it's hosted on or not.

You can't really compare this tool to the charts week-by-week though, because the tool's job is to look at sales for the whole month.  A big reason for Switch's big lead here was because of the Smash bundle that released on the last Friday of the month, but the preorders were evenly distributed over the whole month in this tool.  So the Nov 3 hardware chart should have a big boost to Switch's USA numbers because of the Smash bundle (and Diablo 3, slightly).  We'll see if it's enough to make up the difference, especially since Oct 27 is RDR2 week and should have big PS4 and XB1 numbers.



Switch: SW-3707-5131-3911
XBox: Kenjabish

kenjab said:
Barkley said:

I'd want to stay away from the site if I was relentlessly targeted.

VGC figures only have 2 weeks so far, but it's already a massive discrepancy (is october a 4 week npd?) VGC has the ratio at 1:0.66 in favour of PS4 over Switch. Has there ever been such a colossal difference between the two before?

Won't be long and we can see if this tool has defeated the site it's hosted on or not.

You can't really compare this tool to the charts week-by-week though, because the tool's job is to look at sales for the whole month.  A big reason for Switch's big lead here was because of the Smash bundle that released on the last Friday of the month, but the preorders were evenly distributed over the whole month in this tool. 

Sure, but as the difference is so massive it seems improbable that the next two weeks numbers could ever put VGC in line with this tool. I'm pretty sure that Bar any adjustments VGC and this Tool are still going to have vastly different ratios once the next two weeks up. (Also my math was wrong VGC has it at 1:0.72 for PS4)

So it will be interesting to see if this tool is the better predictor for NPD positions or not, though this may already have been proven. I've never compared to VGC's estimates in previous months.



11/06/18 :


- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 14 (+2) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 29 (+5) - 399.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 47 (-) - 299.00$

Out of Top 100 :

4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 73 (-20) - TP

PS4 : 94 points (+10) ; XBO : 0 point (-) ; NS : 145 + 58 = 203 points (-18)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 1 (-) - 399.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 2 (-) - 299.99$
3 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 3 (+2) - 359.99$
4 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 5 (-1) - 299.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 6 (-) - 299.99$
6 (-) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 9 (-) - 299.99$
7 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 11 (-) - 499.99$
8 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 15 (-) - 299.99$
9 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 22 (-) - 299.99$
10 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Shadow of the Tomb Raider - 53 (+4) - 499.99$
11 (-) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 57 (+6) - 299.99$
12 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 74 (+11) - 499.99$
13 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb - 75 (+7) - 499.99$
14 (N) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu! - 98 (N) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 210 + 205 + 160 = 575 points (-) ; XBO : 185 + 108 + 48 + 44 + 27 + 26 = 438 points (+28) ; NS : 200 + 190 + 170 + 140 + 3 = 703 points (+8)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 5 (+1)
2 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 23 (+13)
3 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Diablo III EC - 25 (-6)
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 62 (+6)
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 94 (+2)
6 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 103 (-1)
7 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 146 (+14)
8 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 150 (+38)

Out of Top 100 :

9 (+5) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 190 (-22)

PS4 : 90 + 58 + 28 = 176 points (+15) ; XBO : 26 points (+19) ; NS : 200 + 155 + 150 + 49 = 554 points (+8)

Overall (with preorders from last months) :

1 - NS : 1269.1 points (-4.8) ; Month Average : 1264.3 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 196.3 points (+32.0) ; Month Average : 517.4 points/day ; 0.41 (-0.08)
3 - PS4 : 366.2 points (+23.0) ; Month Average : 360.5 points/day ; 0.29 (+0.01)



The xbox drop makes sense since the $100 red dead promotion ended on the 4th.



Damn Switch is killing it in November so far.



Signature goes here!