Pinkie_pie said: By the end of march switch will be up by 100k from last year. Switch did 3.3m last year even with odyssey and Zelda. Pokemon ain't coming this year so switch won't be doing 4.5m. I'd say between 3.5-4m this year |
However, Switch won't have anywhere near as severe stock issues as it did last year, and it's baseline over the summer should be up considerably over last summer. And while Pokemon ain't coming this year, there will be plenty of smaller, but substantial games to fill the gap like Kirby, Mario Tennis, and Fire Emblem. Plus, Nintendo LABO has been doing pretty good in the COMG Pre-Order charts, with a little less than 2 months still to go before it releases, so watch out for that.
Plus, they could pull the wool over our heads and reveal some big games that could release this year and do big numbers. There may be a new 2D Mario game in the works and 2D Mario traditionally sells more than 3D Mario, so that could sell quite a number of Switch units.
And there's a good chance that we may get Smash Bros, most likely 4 Deluxe, this year. Because Nintendo's Paid Online services start in September, they're going to need a big, blockbuster multiplayer game to go alongside it to really help push Switch owners to subscribe for the long haul, there's no bigger multiplayer game they could release with at this point then Smash Bros.
And finally, there's one more huge wildcard that could release this year that has almost become just as big of a system seller in Japan as Pokemon; Animal Crossing. The mobile game just came out a few months ago, it's been over five years since New Leaf came out on the 3DS, we're overdue for a mainline Animal Crossing game. If the next game in the series comes out for Switch this year, its 2nd holiday season is going to blow up over there, much more than it did with Super Mario Odyssey.
Now granted, most of this depends on chance and is hypothetical guessing, but it's not that hard to believe that Switch can achieve 4.5, or even 5 million without Pokemon. There's plenty of other hitters in Nintendo's batting order that can step up to the plate and knock one out of the park.
Last edited by PAOerfulone - on 01 March 2018