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Pemalite said:
CrazyGPU said:
Let asume, as most analysts and people guess, that PS5 would be released 2020 or 2021. With a 7nm fabrication process, and enough power for 4k 30fps gaming.
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Will it though? I think people underestimate how much resources you truly need to achieve 4k30fps and have an accompanying generational leap in fidelity.
CrazyGPU said:
I said 4k 30 fps, I didn´t say that it will have an accompanying generational leap in fidelity. I would be glad if it really achieves native 4k 30-60 fps in all games. What you say would be a dream, but far from real for PS5
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CrazyGPU said:
Now, in this gen of console wars, hardware is about teraflops and graphic resolution (Im not talking about soft, exclusives, policies, etc, just hardware)
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No it's not about teraflops.
That's just advertising fluff so that one company's platform looks better than another and people who don't know any better take that number and run with it without any understanding of it's implications in relation to hardware capability.
This has happened many times in the past. - Like with bits or ghz.
And just like "bits". - Flops isn't an accurate denominator in determining the complete hardware capability of a console.
CrazyGPU said:
Yes, this gen is about teraflops and graphic res. Exactly as you said, people take that number and run with it. Its how Microsoft and Sony are fighting the marketing war. They don´t speak much about bandwith, geometry throughput, pixel filtering, texel filtering and the bottleneck of the involved CPU. That´s how they market the world how capable their console are, Tflops.
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CrazyGPU said:
If we consider that PS4 is close to 2 teraflops for 2 megapixels per frame, then we would need a at least a 8 teraflop machine for 8 megapixels.
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Correlation doesn't equate to causation. You are drawing a false equivalency which is a logical fallacy. Aka. Wrong.
CrazyGPU said:
Its math. If you want to output 2 millon pixels on screen you need 2 teraflops at a fixed quality. Then if you need to output 8 millon you need 4 times that, at the same fixed quality. And that considering other stuff like say bandwith doesn´t become a bottleneck. If it does you need to balance that too. Of course if you want to implement better AA, shading, lighting, rays, etc, you would need even more power.
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CrazyGPU said:
PS5 needs to be 3840 x 2160. A 4k native console. So If we want it to handle the same games with the same shading and lighting as ps4, no improvement, just 4k native resolution for the same game. it needs 8,3 megapixels per frame.
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It doesn't need to be anything. Like every other preceding console generation, resolution will be completely up to the developer.
The Playstation 4 isn't even a true 1080P console, many games operate at 900P. Or 1600x900 rather than the full 1920x1080 resolution.
The Playstation 3 had games than ran at sub 720P resolutions.
In-fact the base Playstation 4 supports HDMI 1.4, so in theory it could do 4k30fps if sony/developer allowed it and the visuals were dialed back.
CrazyGPU said:
3- Yes, its up to the developer, but how Microsoft marketed the XBOX one X for example? As a 4k native console. If you have to say in ten years what resolution the ps4 handle, you would say 1080p, despite some games doesn´t reach that at 30 fps. Most do. The PS5 will have to run most games at 4k, even though some may run at 2k checkboard, but that will be the exeption, not the rule, like now with the ps4 pro.
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CrazyGPU said:
And we can have that by 2019-2020. Xbox one X is 6 Tf and just lauched.
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The time frame of when the Xbox One X launching is ultimately irrelevant.
If the technology doesn't exist in the PC's mainstream, then it's never coming to a console, it is simple as that.
As for flops, again. It is a useless denominator, you can have a graphics processor with less flops outperform a graphics processor with more flops. It's stupid and nonsensical because games actually need more than just flops to render a scene.
CrazyGPU said:
It´s not useless, but It´s not accurate either. For example, if the PS5 is a 1 teraflop machine, it won´t be able to calculate fast enough for 4k resolution. But there is a window. For example, a Geforce GTX 1070 has close to 7 teraflops but its architecture is fast enough to be compared to an AMD RADEON VEGA 56 with 10.5 teraflops. That means that a 10 teraflop console without CPU bottlenecks can be able to run 4k 30 fps at high quality with today games. We have to see if they can put such a capable graphic processor on a console power envelope by 2020. If they change AMD for Nvidia, 7 teraflops would be enough for 4k 30 fps, but BC would be more difficult I guess. And again, bandwith and the rest of the graphic pipeline should be balanced or it will have a bottleneck. It will take more than the usual 6 years to have a processor with the flops an all the rest necessary to achieve 8k and that’s without increasing the quality of AAA games. Of course you can make a 8k tetris or minecraft much easier.
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CrazyGPU said:
PS3 cell processor was fabricated on a 90 nm process. That means each transistor was 90 nm in size.
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Are you sure about that? 14nm finfet is actually based on the 20nm planar process.
Don't fall for the "nm" marketing angle that fabs push out, they fluff up the numbers to make themselves look good.
You should try checking out the individual BEOL and FEOL sizes sometime at each geometry size, you might walk away a little surprised.
And that is the reason why Intel has typically held the fabrication edge... Because even though Global Foundries has a "12nm" process, Intels 14nm+++ likely has the edge still.
CrazyGPU said:
5- Again, it doesn´t matter if its 12 or 10 or 7. Intel 80386 was 1500 nm in 1985. They are using extreme ultraviolet light. There are no many shrinks left and each of them are harder and more expensive. Fabrics are beyond expensive to make. Moore Law is slower nowadays. It´s not year 2000 where you have a new graphic card architecture every year. So the shrinks needed to justify PS6 will take more time, hence PS5 will have longer lifespan.
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CrazyGPU said:
PS4 Pro APU was fabricated on a 16 nm process and most likely PS5 will be fabricated with 7nm transistors.
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7nm is a given.
CrazyGPU said:
1 nm is the size of 10 Hidrogen atoms. So we are talking sizes of 70 atoms for a transistor. They don´t have much room left for miniaturization.
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Citation needed.
CrazyGPU said:
Atom size. https://hypertextbook.com/facts/1996/MichaelPhillip.shtml
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CrazyGPU said:
Its getting more time and its harder to make smaller transistor fabrication processes. And because of Quantum Mecanic laws, the performance gains they are getting are also smaller. So it will take a really long time to get to let say 3 nm and really really expensive. If the way of making processors doesn´t change, there is going to be a wall soon.
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DRAM/NAND have taken note of this. So instead of going smaller, they went taller.
More exotic materials like Carbon nanotubes and using triple/quad-druple patterning will go a ways to get us to smaller geometry sizes.
CrazyGPU said:
That what I said, way of making processors have to change, We´ll see if its carbon nanotubes or some other stuff.
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CrazyGPU said:
Even Nintendo said that getting into HD was way more expensive than developing for SD.
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That's just simplified rhetoric. Building a game for SD or HD costs exactly the same, the PC you can take any old game and drive it's resolution from 480P all the way to 8k, it's just a resolution change often exposed by a configuration file if it's not listed in the games settings.
It's building the assets that look great at higher definition that costs.
CrazyGPU said:
Developers make new assets for higher resolution because they need them to look better as you said, so cost goes up.
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CrazyGPU said:
4K AAA are even more expensive. Developers are facing a problem with it. So they sell DLC , implement microtransactions, etc. How much would developement cost increase for 8k?
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The real issue is likely the publishers. They consistently post ever-increasing-profits numbering in the Billions, they are not doing it as hard as you think they are.
CrazyGPU said:
FOR A PS6 TO HAVE A REASON TO EXIST , it should be a 8k console. Even at 8k we´ll have diminishing returns in graphics.
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Why should 8k be a requirement for the Playstation 6?
CrazyGPU said:
Why shouldn´t? what would people justify buying a PS6 at the same resolution? If your answer is ultra quality graphics at 4k, then the console would be able to reach 8k medium quality. As now with many ps4 pro games. Let say Shadow of the colossus. 4k 30 fps or dynamic at 60, I guess, 2k. Tomb Raider. 4k Checkboard or 1080 high quality settings.
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CrazyGPU said:
Of course I can be wrong, but for that companies need to change the way they make CPUs and GPUs to get better performance faster or there has to be a VR fever so high that millons of people pay more for beast consoles and companies fight for 4k on each eye at 90 fps. Not there yet.
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There is a focus on efficiency right now, not brute force with graphics. Consoles are simply at the mercy of the PC's development cadence on this front.
CrazyGPU said:
There also can be a new console with the same resolution, but would it make sense?
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Sure it would make sense. More to graphics than resolution.
CrazyGPU said:
It would make sense for us, not for Sony or Msft marketing department. They would go for 8k.
Nice posts Permalite. I think that even your idea of better graphics , let say at 4k 60 fps ultra quality, would have the same hardware demand or even more than 8K if you want a generational leap than 8K gaming mantaining PS4 quality (Im not talking about 8k tetris here). And that in order to be in a console power envelope and at reasonable console prices, It would take many years. Thats one of the reasons why I think PS5 wil have the longest lifecicle. That doesn´t mean that sony can´t lauch PS5 pro, PS5 ultra, and PS5 ultimate, upgrading the cash making machinery before PS6 hehehe.
I hope Im wrong and they change the way they make processors, that would make the premium next gen 4k graphics or 8k requirements come closer, but I doubt it for PS6. And besides that in 20 years we´ll probably have streaming gaming all over the place. I will miss old times then.
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